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Where will Putin end up?
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If his attempts at rebuilding a Russian Empire fail, what will happen to him? He wants a stronger voice on the world stage but he has a ludicrous way of going about it. Ludicrous, cruel and criminal. He has thrown Russia under the bus. I wonder will his own people be the ones to silence him. He believes his own lies but I don’t believe the Russian people are behind the invasion at all. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I use to think he was a shrewd operator. But he's gone totally doolally.
Did he not learn from history, the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, America in Vietnam. You can't enforce your will on a people who are fightingfor their homes, no matter how powerful you are.
Hope someone stops him before he destroys more Ukrainian and Russian lives. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I am starting to wonder if a coup will take place if he actually orders the use of nuclear weapons.
Will the military leadership and oligarchs step in and say enough is enough?"
Hope so, its getting scary now. |
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"I am starting to wonder if a coup will take place if he actually orders the use of nuclear weapons.
Will the military leadership and oligarchs step in and say enough is enough?
Hope so, its getting scary now."
Putting the nuclear arsenal on the highest alert has got have got a few people going WTF? (they would obviously say that in Russian  ) and that is going to make it easier for ideas that might have been dangerous even hours ago to start to be aired.
The Russian military might be many things but I think their leadership are not stupid. They know what is proportionate even if their political leadership have lost sight. I would imagine a few would have serious misgivings about launching nuclear weapons on European soil. |
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"I am starting to wonder if a coup will take place if he actually orders the use of nuclear weapons.
Will the military leadership and oligarchs step in and say enough is enough?
Hope so, its getting scary now.
Putting the nuclear arsenal on the highest alert has got have got a few people going WTF? (they would obviously say that in Russian ) and that is going to make it easier for ideas that might have been dangerous even hours ago to start to be aired.
The Russian military might be many things but I think their leadership are not stupid. They know what is proportionate even if their political leadership have lost sight. I would imagine a few would have serious misgivings about launching nuclear weapons on European soil."
I think you're right. I can't imagine a launch order being followed - in the same way it wouldn't have been followed if Trump had done it.
Putin's play here will, eventually, end in failure. History tells us that; Vietnam, Afghanistan (whoever invades it), etc Given time, he will fail.
If he tries a nuclear launch order, he'll be imprisoned and maybe wind up in The Hague.
If he just fails, he'll probably step aside and live off his money in some safe haven, like Idi Amin did.
And if you think no country would have him; you'd be surprised.
Btw, when Putin does go - what's Ed Snowden going to do? |
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"I am starting to wonder if a coup will take place if he actually orders the use of nuclear weapons.
Will the military leadership and oligarchs step in and say enough is enough?
Hope so, its getting scary now.
Putting the nuclear arsenal on the highest alert has got have got a few people going WTF? (they would obviously say that in Russian ) and that is going to make it easier for ideas that might have been dangerous even hours ago to start to be aired.
The Russian military might be many things but I think their leadership are not stupid. They know what is proportionate even if their political leadership have lost sight. I would imagine a few would have serious misgivings about launching nuclear weapons on European soil.
I think you're right. I can't imagine a launch order being followed - in the same way it wouldn't have been followed if Trump had done it.
Putin's play here will, eventually, end in failure. History tells us that; Vietnam, Afghanistan (whoever invades it), etc Given time, he will fail.
If he tries a nuclear launch order, he'll be imprisoned and maybe wind up in The Hague.
If he just fails, he'll probably step aside and live off his money in some safe haven, like Idi Amin did.
And if you think no country would have him; you'd be surprised.
Btw, when Putin does go - what's Ed Snowden going to do?"
Putin leaving will not change things massively in terms of the arc of history. Russia still views itself as a great power and who ever takes over is not going to kowtow to the West. Snowden will be safe.
It is just the the hand on the trigger becomes slightly more stable and it gives a face saving mechanism for negotiated talks to take place. |
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"I am starting to wonder if a coup will take place if he actually orders the use of nuclear weapons.
Will the military leadership and oligarchs step in and say enough is enough?
Hope so, its getting scary now.
Putting the nuclear arsenal on the highest alert has got have got a few people going WTF? (they would obviously say that in Russian ) and that is going to make it easier for ideas that might have been dangerous even hours ago to start to be aired.
The Russian military might be many things but I think their leadership are not stupid. They know what is proportionate even if their political leadership have lost sight. I would imagine a few would have serious misgivings about launching nuclear weapons on European soil.
I think you're right. I can't imagine a launch order being followed - in the same way it wouldn't have been followed if Trump had done it.
Putin's play here will, eventually, end in failure. History tells us that; Vietnam, Afghanistan (whoever invades it), etc Given time, he will fail.
If he tries a nuclear launch order, he'll be imprisoned and maybe wind up in The Hague.
If he just fails, he'll probably step aside and live off his money in some safe haven, like Idi Amin did.
And if you think no country would have him; you'd be surprised.
Btw, when Putin does go - what's Ed Snowden going to do?
Putin leaving will not change things massively in terms of the arc of history. Russia still views itself as a great power and who ever takes over is not going to kowtow to the West. Snowden will be safe.
It is just the the hand on the trigger becomes slightly more stable and it gives a face saving mechanism for negotiated talks to take place."
Fair enough on the arc of history, I agree.
But Putin is Don Corleone and there's no Michael in sight. None of us know who will replace him - and there's no talk of it from our politicians or journalists; which at Putin's fairly advanced years, is unusual.
Hope you're right about Snowden. |
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Russian politics is very different from here.
And if anyone thinks he will go quietly is as delusional as he is.
He would never step down or aside.
It's his Russia and he will do whatever he wants the general public are expendable and if he thinks that of his own people how little he must think of us.
I do wonder if the Chinese government are starting to have second thoughts about siding with him now and to be honest the worst thing is backing him into a corner giving him no other options.
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"Russian politics is very different from here.
And if anyone thinks he will go quietly is as delusional as he is.
He would never step down or aside.
It's his Russia and he will do whatever he wants the general public are expendable and if he thinks that of his own people how little he must think of us.
I do wonder if the Chinese government are starting to have second thoughts about siding with him now and to be honest the worst thing is backing him into a corner giving him no other options.
"
100% agree. The only way he is removed is by a coup. He will either be killed or arrested.
I also think the options thing is critical - a corners animal will fight to the death because it has no other option.
I feel like the economic war that is being waged now has to go to the death. A military strike against Russia would be insane. The only realistic alternative is to offer those around him a chance of redemption if they remove him. |
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"Russian politics is very different from here.
And if anyone thinks he will go quietly is as delusional as he is.
He would never step down or aside.
It's his Russia and he will do whatever he wants the general public are expendable and if he thinks that of his own people how little he must think of us.
I do wonder if the Chinese government are starting to have second thoughts about siding with him now and to be honest the worst thing is backing him into a corner giving him no other options.
"
I was thinking the same thing when he talks about nukes i think the Chinese might think its time to calm him down. |
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"Russian politics is very different from here.
And if anyone thinks he will go quietly is as delusional as he is.
He would never step down or aside.
It's his Russia and he will do whatever he wants the general public are expendable and if he thinks that of his own people how little he must think of us.
I do wonder if the Chinese government are starting to have second thoughts about siding with him now and to be honest the worst thing is backing him into a corner giving him no other options.
I was thinking the same thing when he talks about nukes i think the Chinese might think its time to calm him down."
Yes. I don't think China would be too happy if Putin knocked out their entire customer base. |
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"Did China side with Putin? Historically yes but unless I missed something didn’t China say that nation sovereignty (ie Ukraine) should be respected?"
My understanding is that “sovereignty” is the line they care about with Taiwan and that is one of their over riding geo-political goals for this century.
I can’t see them ditching that goal for a short term expediency with Russia over Ukraine. |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Did China side with Putin? Historically yes but unless I missed something didn’t China say that nation sovereignty (ie Ukraine) should be respected?
My understanding is that “sovereignty” is the line they care about with Taiwan and that is one of their over riding geo-political goals for this century.
I can’t see them ditching that goal for a short term expediency with Russia over Ukraine."
There was speculation that China would see how Russia gets on with Ukraine and based on that act (or not) in Taiwan. However, the response to Russia has been stronger than expected and that would give China pause. |
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By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago
Longridge |
"If his attempts at rebuilding a Russian Empire fail, what will happen to him? He wants a stronger voice on the world stage but he has a ludicrous way of going about it. Ludicrous, cruel and criminal. He has thrown Russia under the bus. I wonder will his own people be the ones to silence him. He believes his own lies but I don’t believe the Russian people are behind the invasion at all."
Hopefully it will end just as nearly every other Tzar in the Kremlin, by a group who have had enough and take him and his family to a basement and slaughter them..
From the look on his face yesterday, it might be the one told to get the Nukes ready..
The Russian way is revolution.. fingers crossed.. |
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"Did China side with Putin? Historically yes but unless I missed something didn’t China say that nation sovereignty (ie Ukraine) should be respected?
My understanding is that “sovereignty” is the line they care about with Taiwan and that is one of their over riding geo-political goals for this century.
I can’t see them ditching that goal for a short term expediency with Russia over Ukraine.
There was speculation that China would see how Russia gets on with Ukraine and based on that act (or not) in Taiwan. However, the response to Russia has been stronger than expected and that would give China pause."
Agreed. It will be interesting to see how that elevated response will impact wider geo-political decision making. |
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"Did China side with Putin? Historically yes but unless I missed something didn’t China say that nation sovereignty (ie Ukraine) should be respected?
My understanding is that “sovereignty” is the line they care about with Taiwan and that is one of their over riding geo-political goals for this century.
I can’t see them ditching that goal for a short term expediency with Russia over Ukraine.
There was speculation that China would see how Russia gets on with Ukraine and based on that act (or not) in Taiwan. However, the response to Russia has been stronger than expected and that would give China pause.
Agreed. It will be interesting to see how that elevated response will impact wider geo-political decision making."
One thing is for sure, if China invades Taiwan, it will use the same excuse as Israel has always used for what it did in 1967, in the Six Day War, ie. this land is ours, it has been for centuries, we were only temporarily displaced and now we've taken it back. If you don't like it, too bad.
Well, Taiwan was Chinese for over 200 years (at a bare minimum) before they lost it for 50 years, to the Japanese.
Now I don't think the Chinese should invade Taiwan but, if they do, they'll be able to play the Israel card all day every day.
And for those of you who do not think they'd be the same thing ...
are you really saying that Israel had the right to do what it did in 1967 - and not give any of the land they took back - because they believe God gave them the land and the right to it?
Because if you do believe that, then there won't be any avoiding China ignoring our double standards and operating in accordance with the core belief of many Americans - that might is, indeed, right.
The Rise of the West hasn't really been founded on democracy - it's been military and economic brute force up until almost the middle of the last century.
If the Chinese follow our example, seeing how successful we've been; there's not much we can do if they ignore our hypocrisy when we castigate them - as is the case now.
As I've said, I don't think they'd be right to invade Taiwan and they're certainly not the good guys - but the likelihood of our governments persuading them of the error of their ways doesn't seem very high. |
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