FabSwingers.com > Forums > Politics > Another rate rise
Another rate rise
Jump to: Newest in thread
 |
By *rHotNotts OP Man
over a year ago
Dubai / Nottingham |
Highest now for 14 years, where will it end ?
I think we will see deflation on food & house prices very soon , we’re already seeing a huge drop in inflation from 13% to 10% in the last few days. And interestingly 2 year bonds paying better than 3 year (4.0% vs 3.5%) after this latest hike
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *ovebjsMan
over a year ago
Bristol |
The interest rate was too low for too long and many people maxed out on mortgages never thinking that it would go up one day.
When I was buying my home I was paying 4% at times so when it went down I was quids in so to speak but always knew that there was a possibility of it going up at any time.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"The interest rate was too low for too long and many people maxed out on mortgages never thinking that it would go up one day.
When I was buying my home I was paying 4% at times so when it went down I was quids in so to speak but always knew that there was a possibility of it going up at any time.
"
There’s quite an irony about all of this...
1) The 2008 financial crash was caused by the bundling and overselling of sub-prime mortgages in the USA. ie giving mortgages to people who couldn’t really afford them and defaulted.
2) Since then interest rates have been at their lowest ever for a long time to deal with fall out from financial crisis.
3) Now mortgage rates are rising and there will be people who can no longer afford to pay them (again). |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The interest rate was too low for too long and many people maxed out on mortgages never thinking that it would go up one day.
When I was buying my home I was paying 4% at times so when it went down I was quids in so to speak but always knew that there was a possibility of it going up at any time.
There’s quite an irony about all of this...
1) The 2008 financial crash was caused by the bundling and overselling of sub-prime mortgages in the USA. ie giving mortgages to people who couldn’t really afford them and defaulted.
2) Since then interest rates have been at their lowest ever for a long time to deal with fall out from financial crisis.
3) Now mortgage rates are rising and there will be people who can no longer afford to pay them (again)."
But it's always been cyclical. Boom bust is capitation model. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *ovebjsMan
over a year ago
Bristol |
They also sold people interest only mortgages with endowment policies but not telling them that they would need to be increasing the endowment over time because it would not be covering the cost of the full mortgage once matured.
I went the other way and went straight repayment with a life cover just in case, it still meant 20 years of no holidays or luxuries and was always a struggle  |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
This rate rise was bound to happen sooner or later, and the many people who maxed out and borrowed as much as they could with their mortgages over the last decade or so, will now be very worried indeed, but all you peeps out there who are of a certain age group.....us.....will remember with dread, when back in the good old 80's the interest rates were around 13%? It was grim back then, we can speak from bitter experience as we had just bought our first house, and looking back now, it was frightening, so the current interest rate seems tame compared to what we had to pay? |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"They also sold people interest only mortgages with endowment policies but not telling them that they would need to be increasing the endowment over time because it would not be covering the cost of the full mortgage once matured.
I went the other way and went straight repayment with a life cover just in case, it still meant 20 years of no holidays or luxuries and was always a struggle "
Yep there was/is nothing wrong with the good old fixed rate repayment mortgage! |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *rHotNotts OP Man
over a year ago
Dubai / Nottingham |
"This rate rise was bound to happen sooner or later, and the many people who maxed out and borrowed as much as they could with their mortgages over the last decade or so, will now be very worried indeed, but all you peeps out there who are of a certain age group.....us.....will remember with dread, when back in the good old 80's the interest rates were around 13%? It was grim back then, we can speak from bitter experience as we had just bought our first house, and looking back now, it was frightening, so the current interest rate seems tame compared to what we had to pay?"
I think they peaked at 17%. If china invades Taiwan & there’s a winter World War I expect it will be much higher |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago
Longridge |
14%..
I was advised that rates would rise significantly after Brexit. If not for furlough artificially holding the economy together, then this would have started 18 months ago.
I took the advice and fixed 2.55% fir 10 years against advice of those paying 1.5%. They are now 6 to 12 months to the end of their short fixes.
It's not pretty... |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
Interest rates should have been raised a long time ago. Any fool could see two years ago that all the government money printing to pay for people to sit around doing nothing and "save the NHS" would lead to an inflation spike.
Unfortunately the "experts" at the Bank of England seemingly couldn't see what was coming, though they are in good company as the ECB and US Fed couldn't see it either.
There are winners and losers from any financial movements. It will be interesting to see how much of an impact it has on house prices as people can't put off life decisions like buying a house for long, and there is a big supply/demand problem in the UK with too many people chasing after too few properties which is constantly keeping prices high.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
Isn’t the interest rate level compared to the 80s argument missing a key factor? Affordability (proportion of mortgage vs income).
Don’t have actual figures but approx in 80s with rates around 14% but that was when mortgages were around 3 x salary. So even if rates topped out around 4-5% that will sometimes be on far higher levels of borrowing vs income. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *ndiiiMan
over a year ago
Paisley Scotland |
"This rate rise was bound to happen sooner or later, and the many people who maxed out and borrowed as much as they could with their mortgages over the last decade or so, will now be very worried indeed, but all you peeps out there who are of a certain age group.....us.....will remember with dread, when back in the good old 80's the interest rates were around 13%? It was grim back then, we can speak from bitter experience as we had just bought our first house, and looking back now, it was frightening, so the current interest rate seems tame compared to what we had to pay?"
18%in 1981!!!!
Please nooooo |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
If you want to know how badly today went before kwasi stood up interest rates were expected to top out at around 4.5%…. As of now most economists are suggesting interest rates may top out at 5.5-6%
I feel for anyone looking at buying a house at the moment |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"If you want to know how badly today went before kwasi stood up interest rates were expected to top out at around 4.5%…. As of now most economists are suggesting interest rates may top out at 5.5-6%
I feel for anyone looking at buying a house at the moment "
If they reach 6 % the housing market will crash |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *AFKA HovisMan
over a year ago
Sindon Swingdon Swindon |
"If you want to know how badly today went before kwasi stood up interest rates were expected to top out at around 4.5%…. As of now most economists are suggesting interest rates may top out at 5.5-6%
I feel for anyone looking at buying a house at the moment
If they reach 6 % the housing market will crash "
I think a crash will happen if there are redundencies etc ... IR increases will squeeze families harder ... But many will prioritise mortgage repayment. The market will slow for sure. Possibly cool. Notwithstanding the stamp duty change.
(Note: all my forecasts tend to be wrong. So I forecast this forecasts to be wrong ...  ) |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
I was paying over 6% when I got my first house then been paying next to zero on the base rate since the financial crash, I fixed it a few years ago as it was only ever going to go up after the covid fiasco.
A lot of friends up sized homes and new cars etc... All on the bases of low interest rates and loans but now its creeping up again, I know they are finding the payments tough.
People today tend to live for the now and don't think about what ifs but in this case it was madness not to expect interest rates to rise and you should be able to absorb that my living within your means. Call me boring but that's how I think about it. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"If you want to know how badly today went before kwasi stood up interest rates were expected to top out at around 4.5%…. As of now most economists are suggesting interest rates may top out at 5.5-6%
I feel for anyone looking at buying a house at the moment
If they reach 6 % the housing market will crash I think a crash will happen if there are redundencies etc ... IR increases will squeeze families harder ... But many will prioritise mortgage repayment. The market will slow for sure. Possibly cool. Notwithstanding the stamp duty change.
(Note: all my forecasts tend to be wrong. So I forecast this forecasts to be wrong ... )"
Actually Liz truss favourite economist, Patrick minford (him being the only economist advocating for brexit claiming it would improve the economy… eventually…. In the very long term…. If it does!) actually advocates for what has happened today…
He is the one she always quotes….
Problem is that even he says it’s side effect is a housing crash (he terms it as a much needed housing adjustment! )
Stamp duty changes are going to make any difference at the bottom because home owners will just adjust house prices to swallow the difference… and the higher interest rates…. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *AFKA HovisMan
over a year ago
Sindon Swingdon Swindon |
"If you want to know how badly today went before kwasi stood up interest rates were expected to top out at around 4.5%…. As of now most economists are suggesting interest rates may top out at 5.5-6%
I feel for anyone looking at buying a house at the moment
If they reach 6 % the housing market will crash I think a crash will happen if there are redundencies etc ... IR increases will squeeze families harder ... But many will prioritise mortgage repayment. The market will slow for sure. Possibly cool. Notwithstanding the stamp duty change.
(Note: all my forecasts tend to be wrong. So I forecast this forecasts to be wrong ... )
Actually Liz truss favourite economist, Patrick minford (him being the only economist advocating for brexit claiming it would improve the economy… eventually…. In the very long term…. If it does!) actually advocates for what has happened today…
He is the one she always quotes….
Problem is that even he says it’s side effect is a housing crash (he terms it as a much needed housing adjustment!)
Stamp duty changes are going to make any difference at the bottom because home owners will just adjust house prices to swallow the difference… and the higher interest rates…. "
i wouldn't trust anything out the Liverpool school. Not saying he is wrong. But when you start off with wonky foundations, who knows what you're gonna get.
(It is odd to believe him, and still follow him, given his predictions make project fear look like Disney.) |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"If you want to know how badly today went before kwasi stood up interest rates were expected to top out at around 4.5%…. As of now most economists are suggesting interest rates may top out at 5.5-6%
I feel for anyone looking at buying a house at the moment
If they reach 6 % the housing market will crash I think a crash will happen if there are redundencies etc ... IR increases will squeeze families harder ... But many will prioritise mortgage repayment. The market will slow for sure. Possibly cool. Notwithstanding the stamp duty change.
(Note: all my forecasts tend to be wrong. So I forecast this forecasts to be wrong ... )
Actually Liz truss favourite economist, Patrick minford (him being the only economist advocating for brexit claiming it would improve the economy… eventually…. In the very long term…. If it does!) actually advocates for what has happened today…
He is the one she always quotes….
Problem is that even he says it’s side effect is a housing crash (he terms it as a much needed housing adjustment!)
Stamp duty changes are going to make any difference at the bottom because home owners will just adjust house prices to swallow the difference… and the higher interest rates…. i wouldn't trust anything out the Liverpool school. Not saying he is wrong. But when you start off with wonky foundations, who knows what you're gonna get.
(It is odd to believe him, and still follow him, given his predictions make project fear look like Disney.)"
Brexiteers loved minford because he was the economist that said brexit would fuck up the economy the least!! Still bad but not bad bad!!
I just think it’s funny they selectively use minford to make a case but run away from the bad stuff he says! |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *rHotNotts OP Man
over a year ago
Dubai / Nottingham |
"If you want to know how badly today went before kwasi stood up interest rates were expected to top out at around 4.5%…. As of now most economists are suggesting interest rates may top out at 5.5-6%
I feel for anyone looking at buying a house at the moment
If they reach 6 % the housing market will crash I think a crash will happen if there are redundencies etc ... IR increases will squeeze families harder ... But many will prioritise mortgage repayment. The market will slow for sure. Possibly cool. Notwithstanding the stamp duty change.
(Note: all my forecasts tend to be wrong. So I forecast this forecasts to be wrong ... )"
I think they will fall, not crash, houses and food prices, inflation is already falling. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *AFKA HovisMan
over a year ago
Sindon Swingdon Swindon |
"If you want to know how badly today went before kwasi stood up interest rates were expected to top out at around 4.5%…. As of now most economists are suggesting interest rates may top out at 5.5-6%
I feel for anyone looking at buying a house at the moment
If they reach 6 % the housing market will crash I think a crash will happen if there are redundencies etc ... IR increases will squeeze families harder ... But many will prioritise mortgage repayment. The market will slow for sure. Possibly cool. Notwithstanding the stamp duty change.
(Note: all my forecasts tend to be wrong. So I forecast this forecasts to be wrong ... )
I think they will fall, not crash, houses and food prices, inflation is already falling."
is that defaltion ... Or just reduction in inflation. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"
I think they will fall, not crash, houses and food prices, inflation is already falling."
Inflation will still go up for the next few months as it’s a yearly price increase indicator done monthly… so it at the moment doesn’t include fully the increases for gas last January yet, or April!! for example , the stuff with the war, (6 months in) it still doesn’t include the full ending of covid restrictions yet!
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Interest rates should be above inflation to reward savers."
If we encourage saving, everyone will just stuff their money in the bank, and the economy will die.
What we want is for people to spend the money, get it into circulation so that more trade can be done, and the economy can grow. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"What we want is for people to spend the money, get it into circulation so that more trade can be done, and the economy can grow."
Nope, we want to retire at a reasonable age. To do that we need a certain amount of money. If our savings and investments don't keep up with inflation we need to save harder so spend less.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"What we want is for people to spend the money, get it into circulation so that more trade can be done, and the economy can grow."
"Nope, we want to retire at a reasonable age. To do that we need a certain amount of money. If our savings and investments don't keep up with inflation we need to save harder so spend less."
And that's the problem. As a society we want everyone to spend all their money, because this will stimulate growth. As individuals we want to make sensible investments to make sure that our future is be paid for. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"What we want is for people to spend the money, get it into circulation so that more trade can be done, and the economy can grow."
that has fallen flat on it's face repeatedly for the last 40 years and the country is much worse off as a result. the problem with conservative party economics is that it keeps running out of other peoples money.  |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"the problem with conservative party economics is that it keeps running out of other peoples money."
"I see what you did there.  "
"it's not anythin i have done ... it's the fact that conservative government's repeatedly run out of other peoples money"
Oh.
I thought you were making a clever play on Margaret Thatcher's famous quote "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money".
But I see now that it was just an accident. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"At least these rises will affect the fakers the most, those that do their best to look rich to the outside, mortgaged up to the hilt and car loans taking whats left over. A nice reset is coming. "
Thats true, but its easy when your younger to be caught up in this.
The thing is though the banks have encouraged this with low interest rates on borrowing and savings and constant bombarding people with loan offers.
The government has also been guilty with its economic model reliant on consumer spending and credit for growth. Its was always going to be a ticking time bomb. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
» Add a new message to this topic
