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Labour polling below 20% for 1st time
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"Labour has fallen below 20% in national polling for the first time since the 2024 General Election. The latest FindOutNow polling shows: RFM: 31% LAB: 19% CON: 19% LDM: 12% GRN: 10% Meanwhile averages of Starmer’s net approval rating are around -41, with the government approval rating at -55. Labour supporters on this forum seem convinced that Labour is doing a great job. But this certainly isn’t reflected in the polling. Is this because: 1. Labour is doing a shit job 2. Labour is doing a great job but not managing to communicate it to the electorate 3. Labour is doing a great job but the electorate is stupid 4. Something else" I'm leaning towards 1. | |||
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" Labour supporters on this forum seem convinced that Labour is doing a great job." Sorry, based on what? | |||
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"I love the fact he assumes every left leaning person is a labour apologist, despite actually writing lib dem and green in this dubious polling. " Have you got any basis for saying it’s “dubious”? Or is it just more “making stuff up” as usual? | |||
"I love the fact he assumes every left leaning person is a labour apologist, despite actually writing lib dem and green in this dubious polling. Have you got any basis for saying it’s “dubious”? Or is it just more “making stuff up” as usual?" It's not a company I'm familiar with, it's probably a right wing poll that means into your biases. More in common or yougov are the best | |||
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"I love the fact he assumes every left leaning person is a labour apologist, despite actually writing lib dem and green in this dubious polling. Have you got any basis for saying it’s “dubious”? Or is it just more “making stuff up” as usual? It's not a company I'm familiar with, it's probably a right wing poll that means into your biases. More in common or yougov are the best " Best in what way? The real test of whether polling is valid or not is whether “bigtool4u” has heard of them? | |||
"I love the fact he assumes every left leaning person is a labour apologist, despite actually writing lib dem and green in this dubious polling. Have you got any basis for saying it’s “dubious”? Or is it just more “making stuff up” as usual? It's not a company I'm familiar with, it's probably a right wing poll that means into your biases. More in common or yougov are the best Best in what way? The real test of whether polling is valid or not is whether “bigtool4u” has heard of them? " Lol! Put your toys back in the pram. It's best because they came do large scaling samples. Piss poor qiestions by an unknown psephologist asking 5 people isn't reliable | |||
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"*can " Is that what they did? | |||
"*can Is that what they did?" You tell us, publish the results. Publish the size of the sample and demographic | |||
"*can Is that what they did? You tell us, publish the results. Publish the size of the sample and demographic " You are the one casting doubt on it while knowing absolutely zero about it. We’ve already established that you can’t do basic percentages. Now you’re taking on polling methodology. I’m a bit dubious tbh. Carry on though. I’m sure we could all do with a laugh on a Friday night. | |||
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"Labour has fallen below 20% in national polling for the first time since the 2024 General Election. The latest FindOutNow polling shows: RFM: 31% LAB: 19% CON: 19% LDM: 12% GRN: 10% Meanwhile averages of Starmer’s net approval rating are around -41, with the government approval rating at -55. Labour supporters on this forum seem convinced that Labour is doing a great job. But this certainly isn’t reflected in the polling. Is this because: 1. Labour is doing a shit job 2. Labour is doing a great job but not managing to communicate it to the electorate 3. Labour is doing a great job but the electorate is stupid 4. Something else" It's not been a great first year, even they acknowledge that. However they have a very large majority and the Tories are adjusting to being in opposition as well as labour adjusted to being in government, so at present not much of a threat. From a party point of view, if your going to have a bad year or 2 then best do it at the start of their term, not the end. If we was in the last year I doubt they would have taken the decisions on pensioners and disability claimants that they did. | |||
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"Labour have invented "The Reverse Midas Touch" Everything they do turns to shit!" Where have I read that recently? | |||
"Labour has fallen below 20% in national polling for the first time since the 2024 General Election. The latest FindOutNow polling shows: RFM: 31% LAB: 19% CON: 19% LDM: 12% GRN: 10% Meanwhile averages of Starmer’s net approval rating are around -41, with the government approval rating at -55. Labour supporters on this forum seem convinced that Labour is doing a great job. But this certainly isn’t reflected in the polling. Is this because: 1. Labour is doing a shit job 2. Labour is doing a great job but not managing to communicate it to the electorate 3. Labour is doing a great job but the electorate is stupid 4. Something else It's not been a great first year, even they acknowledge that. However they have a very large majority and the Tories are adjusting to being in opposition as well as labour adjusted to being in government, so at present not much of a threat. From a party point of view, if your going to have a bad year or 2 then best do it at the start of their term, not the end. If we was in the last year I doubt they would have taken the decisions on pensioners and disability claimants that they did." I agree with this. Given their majority, it would be a shrewd move on paper to make all the unpopular changes and hard decisions in the first two years. I believe that's what they wanted to pull off with their original bill around benefits change. But they screwed up and backtracked. It would be interesting to see what they over the next year. | |||
"*can Is that what they did? You tell us, publish the results. Publish the size of the sample and demographic You are the one casting doubt on it while knowing absolutely zero about it. We’ve already established that you can’t do basic percentages. Now you’re taking on polling methodology. I’m a bit dubious tbh. Carry on though. I’m sure we could all do with a laugh on a Friday night." Top lols, publish the link | |||
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"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. " Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see " So do you have any actual comments about why Labour is doing so badly in the polls, which is what the thread is about. | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see So do you have any actual comments about why Labour is doing so badly in the polls, which is what the thread is about." Sure, Taking money from grannies, the disabled the constant negativity from right wing press | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see So do you have any actual comments about why Labour is doing so badly in the polls, which is what the thread is about." Now your poll, it's very low, what was the sample | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see So do you have any actual comments about why Labour is doing so badly in the polls, which is what the thread is about. Now your poll, it's very low, what was the sample " Very low? Yougov latest has Labour on 21%. You are more concerned about a 2% difference than why Labour is doing badly in all polls? I’m guessing you don’t have any clue why. | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see So do you have any actual comments about why Labour is doing so badly in the polls, which is what the thread is about. Now your poll, it's very low, what was the sample Very low? Yougov latest has Labour on 21%. You are more concerned about a 2% difference than why Labour is doing badly in all polls? I’m guessing you don’t have any clue why." I have mentioned this already but it obviously goes against the point the OP is attempting to make. The "Mid-Term Slump" is the Norm: Since World War II, it has been extremely rare for a governing party to be ahead in the polls at the mid-point of a parliamentary term. Governments almost always experience a significant dip in popularity between elections. This may not be mid-term but the incumbent government is simply following a trend they has been repeated again and again in British politics. Thatcher and the Falklands bucked that trend and there will be a few other instances but once the honeymoon period is over, there tends to be voter apathy and even rebellion regarding policies that have or have not been implemented. The important poll and vote will be at the end of four years and then we will actually see what the British public think. | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. " I found it interesting because I had never heard of the organisation find out now, so I did a bit of digging… it seems like they are an online organisation only… The other thing I found interesting is that they an outside market research organisation and not part of the “British polling council” which is the main organisation representing the likes of Mori, Ipsos ect Anyway reform are never winning a general election for a few reasons, but primarily they don’t have the support in Scotland and wales, plus the English “big cities” (there is a reason they are forever having a go at London) they aren’t winning in places like Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, They may win smaller provincial towns and rurally… but at some point they would need to extend that reach | |||
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"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. I found it interesting because I had never heard of the organisation find out now, so I did a bit of digging… it seems like they are an online organisation only… The other thing I found interesting is that they an outside market research organisation and not part of the “British polling council” which is the main organisation representing the likes of Mori, Ipsos ect Anyway reform are never winning a general election for a few reasons, but primarily they don’t have the support in Scotland and wales, plus the English “big cities” (there is a reason they are forever having a go at London) they aren’t winning in places like Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, They may win smaller provincial towns and rurally… but at some point they would need to extend that reach " So this is from their own website which I found in about sixty seconds: “Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules”. That’s some amazing research you’ve done there! | |||
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"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. I found it interesting because I had never heard of the organisation find out now, so I did a bit of digging… it seems like they are an online organisation only… The other thing I found interesting is that they an outside market research organisation and not part of the “British polling council” which is the main organisation representing the likes of Mori, Ipsos ect Anyway reform are never winning a general election for a few reasons, but primarily they don’t have the support in Scotland and wales, plus the English “big cities” (there is a reason they are forever having a go at London) they aren’t winning in places like Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, They may win smaller provincial towns and rurally… but at some point they would need to extend that reach So this is from their own website which I found in about sixty seconds: “Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules”. That’s some amazing research you’ve done there!" Blame Google AI for that… double checked… only became a member of the British polling council as of the last AGM in February 25 | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see So do you have any actual comments about why Labour is doing so badly in the polls, which is what the thread is about. Sure, Taking money from grannies, the disabled the constant negativity from right wing press " You mean like I explained here | |||
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"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. I found it interesting because I had never heard of the organisation find out now, so I did a bit of digging… it seems like they are an online organisation only… The other thing I found interesting is that they an outside market research organisation and not part of the “British polling council” which is the main organisation representing the likes of Mori, Ipsos ect Anyway reform are never winning a general election for a few reasons, but primarily they don’t have the support in Scotland and wales, plus the English “big cities” (there is a reason they are forever having a go at London) they aren’t winning in places like Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, They may win smaller provincial towns and rurally… but at some point they would need to extend that reach So this is from their own website which I found in about sixty seconds: “Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules”. That’s some amazing research you’ve done there! Blame Google AI for that… double checked… only became a member of the British polling council as of the last AGM in February 25 " I’m not familiar with Google AI I don’t have any Google stuff. It did say on Grok 4 that they were members but I checked directly as from my limited experience so far sometimes AI seems to be brilliant and at other times seems sketchy. | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. I found it interesting because I had never heard of the organisation find out now, so I did a bit of digging… it seems like they are an online organisation only… The other thing I found interesting is that they an outside market research organisation and not part of the “British polling council” which is the main organisation representing the likes of Mori, Ipsos ect Anyway reform are never winning a general election for a few reasons, but primarily they don’t have the support in Scotland and wales, plus the English “big cities” (there is a reason they are forever having a go at London) they aren’t winning in places like Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, They may win smaller provincial towns and rurally… but at some point they would need to extend that reach So this is from their own website which I found in about sixty seconds: “Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules”. That’s some amazing research you’ve done there! Blame Google AI for that… double checked… only became a member of the British polling council as of the last AGM in February 25 " Google didn’t post it lol, you did. How is it googles fault? Anyway, if Labour supporters are happy then great. If 2 tier kier thinks he’s got the public behind him, good. Just carry on as you are, raise taxes, increase spending, increase debt, lose face in front of world leaders, that’s definitely popular with voters | |||
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"Seeing as he's been the best thing for Britain on the world stage, that is one thing he has been good at. I'm not taking your arse seriously " OMG lol you’re funny I’ll give you that lol I bet you and me can agree on one thing at the very least. Donald Trump is a complete idiot, the worst president the yanks ever had, a poor public speaker, constantly making a fool out of himself both in public and on social media? Agreed? Probably got a seal team on their way already but hey ho…. You can’t live forever But Trump just ran rings around your boy Starmer on live TV. Quite possibly the worst politician ever and he made your boy look like a chump. What does that say about our him. | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. I found it interesting because I had never heard of the organisation find out now, so I did a bit of digging… it seems like they are an online organisation only… The other thing I found interesting is that they an outside market research organisation and not part of the “British polling council” which is the main organisation representing the likes of Mori, Ipsos ect Anyway reform are never winning a general election for a few reasons, but primarily they don’t have the support in Scotland and wales, plus the English “big cities” (there is a reason they are forever having a go at London) they aren’t winning in places like Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, They may win smaller provincial towns and rurally… but at some point they would need to extend that reach So this is from their own website which I found in about sixty seconds: “Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules”. That’s some amazing research you’ve done there! Blame Google AI for that… double checked… only became a member of the British polling council as of the last AGM in February 25 Google didn’t post it lol, you did. How is it googles fault? Anyway, if Labour supporters are happy then great. If 2 tier kier thinks he’s got the public behind him, good. Just carry on as you are, raise taxes, increase spending, increase debt, lose face in front of world leaders, that’s definitely popular with voters " Don’t presume that I am a labour supporter He doesn’t need to be popular in year 1…. He has 4 years to potentially turn his problems around Reforms problem is both a policy one and a big city one They are finding the same problem labour are finding… easy to be populist in opposition, easy to only have one policy in opposition (get reform talking about something other than immigration and they stumble and flop around as much as the conservatives do) There biggest issue is at some point they need to talk to the multicultural metropolitan big cities… and if they fundamentally believe that multiculturalism does not work… and you have supporters, like some of those on here, spouting that position time after time after time.. you are not winning people over Like France on here would never elect Jean Marie le pen , so the FN replaced him with a more palatable face in his daughter, who probably still isn’t palatable enough so macron won again, Nigel Farage is the more palatable face of what was nick griffin, and still isn’t palatable enough | |||
"Don’t presume that I am a labour supporter He doesn’t need to be popular in year 1…. He has 4 years to potentially turn his problems around Reforms problem is both a policy one and a big city one " Don’t assume I’m a reform supporter. And this is year two by the way. And if you think politicians don’t need to be popular to get elected then you’re wrong. I’ll admit that sometimes you have to do unpopular stuff to fix problems, such as cutting spending which impacts services. But that’s not what they have done. They have spent money like there’s no tomorrow, literally. But have no “feel good factor” to show for it. Now they are really in a bind because they either have to…. 1. Cut spending and break their promise to their union paymasters 2. Increase taxes and break their promise to the public who voted them in. 3. Increase borrowing which will break their own rules. Kinda tricky to win. All will increase pain on the least able to bare it and lower their popularity further. This will be the first single term government since the 70s | |||
"Seeing as he's been the best thing for Britain on the world stage, that is one thing he has been good at. I'm not taking your arse seriously OMG lol you’re funny I’ll give you that lol I bet you and me can agree on one thing at the very least. Donald Trump is a complete idiot, the worst president the yanks ever had, a poor public speaker, constantly making a fool out of himself both in public and on social media? Agreed? Probably got a seal team on their way already but hey ho…. You can’t live forever But Trump just ran rings around your boy Starmer on live TV. Quite possibly the worst politician ever and he made your boy look like a chump. What does that say about our him. " I have no idea what you're on about. It was nice outside, seeing friends, walking our dogs, had a pint or two. My boy Starmer? I only pointed out that he's been excellent on the worlds stage. I've never voted for labour their are other left leaning parties. | |||
"Seeing as he's been the best thing for Britain on the world stage, that is one thing he has been good at. I'm not taking your arse seriously OMG lol you’re funny I’ll give you that lol I bet you and me can agree on one thing at the very least. Donald Trump is a complete idiot, the worst president the yanks ever had, a poor public speaker, constantly making a fool out of himself both in public and on social media? Agreed? Probably got a seal team on their way already but hey ho…. You can’t live forever But Trump just ran rings around your boy Starmer on live TV. Quite possibly the worst politician ever and he made your boy look like a chump. What does that say about our him. I have no idea what you're on about. It was nice outside, seeing friends, walking our dogs, had a pint or two. My boy Starmer? I only pointed out that he's been excellent on the worlds stage. I've never voted for labour their are other left leaning parties." You said “best on the world stage”. I assume we can agree that dealings with the US president on live tv being broadcast around the world is “the world stage”? Coming off 2nd to the biggest idiot in world politics is hardly “the best”. Worst would be a better choice of word | |||
"I love the fact he assumes every left leaning person is a labour apologist, despite actually writing lib dem and green in this dubious polling. Have you got any basis for saying it’s “dubious”? Or is it just more “making stuff up” as usual? It's not a company I'm familiar with, it's probably a right wing poll that means into your biases. More in common or yougov are the best " The last More in Common poll gave Reform an 8% lead. The last Yougov gave Reform a 7% lead. Both conducted in the last week. Find Out Now gives Reform a 12% lead. Just outside the +/- 3% error margin but close enough.  | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see So do you have any actual comments about why Labour is doing so badly in the polls, which is what the thread is about. Now your poll, it's very low, what was the sample " Sample sizes. More in Common 8-11 Aug. 2015. Reform 8% lead. Yougov 10-11 Aug. 2501. Reform 7% lead. Find Out Now 13-14 Aug. 2513. Reform 12% lead. Find out Now were the largest sample size. | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see So do you have any actual comments about why Labour is doing so badly in the polls, which is what the thread is about. Now your poll, it's very low, what was the sample Sample sizes. More in Common 8-11 Aug. 2015. Reform 8% lead. Yougov 10-11 Aug. 2501. Reform 7% lead. Find Out Now 13-14 Aug. 2513. Reform 12% lead. Find out Now were the largest sample size. " How many people were asked in each poll? As in, what are the sample sizes for each? | |||
"Took me 5 seconds to find the poll with google… https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-13th-14th-august-2025/ Here’s another https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention If you have a poll showing labour in the lead perhaps you could post a link? If you think Starmer has nothing to worry about, great. That’s exactly what I want him to think. The only thing lower than Starmers approval rating is what most of the free world think of our free speech rating. Top lols!! Free speech... Who's stopping you from saying what you want? Seems legit but an outlier being so low, yougov is more in line with what I see So do you have any actual comments about why Labour is doing so badly in the polls, which is what the thread is about. Now your poll, it's very low, what was the sample Sample sizes. More in Common 8-11 Aug. 2015. Reform 8% lead. Yougov 10-11 Aug. 2501. Reform 7% lead. Find Out Now 13-14 Aug. 2513. Reform 12% lead. Find out Now were the largest sample size. How many people were asked in each poll? As in, what are the sample sizes for each? " As above. 2015, 2501 and 2513 respectively. | |||
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"Labour have invented "The Reverse Midas Touch" Everything they do turns to shit! Where have I read that recently? " It went vulval on Fab's politics forum! | |||
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"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread." Where were they polling before the by election? I notice the green chap failed to even get 25% of the vote? Hardly a ringing endorsement against the rabid righties? Perhaps they'll push for independence? | |||
"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. Where were they polling before the by election? I notice the green chap failed to even get 25% of the vote? Hardly a ringing endorsement against the rabid righties? Perhaps they'll push for independence?" well they certainly didn't push for reform  | |||
"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. Where were they polling before the by election? I notice the green chap failed to even get 25% of the vote? Hardly a ringing endorsement against the rabid righties? Perhaps they'll push for independence? well they certainly didn't push for reform "One can only hope that the good people of Wales push for and get independence | |||
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"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread." There have been 83 local elections since May 2025. Results: RFM: 28 (+24) LDM: 23 (+5) CON: 11 (-6) LAB: 8 (-20) GRN: 7 (+3) Ind: 3 (-2) SNP: 1 (=) PLC: 1 (=) Local: 1 (-4) | |||
"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. There have been 83 local elections since May 2025. Results: RFM: 28 (+24) LDM: 23 (+5) CON: 11 (-6) LAB: 8 (-20) GRN: 7 (+3) Ind: 3 (-2) SNP: 1 (=) PLC: 1 (=) Local: 1 (-4)" in the most recent, reform were utterly destroyed  | |||
"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. There have been 83 local elections since May 2025. Results: RFM: 28 (+24) LDM: 23 (+5) CON: 11 (-6) LAB: 8 (-20) GRN: 7 (+3) Ind: 3 (-2) SNP: 1 (=) PLC: 1 (=) Local: 1 (-4) in the most recent, reform were utterly destroyed "Just horses for courses really. In Cardiff the Greens took a usually safe Labour seat. Reform were never going to win it. In the same election the Lib Dems came last with just 63 votes. Now that could be called "utterly destroyed". Reform got 495 BTW. That doesn't mean that the Lib Dems will get wiped out in their south west England heartlands though. The same as Reform will still do well in the north and midlands. Plenty more bye elections to come and Reform won't win them all but they'll win more than they lose. You can bet the farm on that. | |||
"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. There have been 83 local elections since May 2025. Results: RFM: 28 (+24) LDM: 23 (+5) CON: 11 (-6) LAB: 8 (-20) GRN: 7 (+3) Ind: 3 (-2) SNP: 1 (=) PLC: 1 (=) Local: 1 (-4) in the most recent, reform were utterly destroyed
Just horses for courses really.
In Cardiff the Greens took a usually safe Labour seat. Reform were never going to win it.
In the same election the Lib Dems came last with just 63 votes. Now that could be called "utterly destroyed". Reform got 495 BTW.
That doesn't mean that the Lib Dems will get wiped out in their south west England heartlands though. The same as Reform will still do well in the north and midlands.
Plenty more bye elections to come and Reform won't win them all but they'll win more than they lose.
You can bet the farm on that. "And that is reform’s problem that I highlighted earlier…. Reform are not going to win in Scotland.. are highly unlikely to win wales.. are not going to win in the Lib Dem’s South west heartland Are not going to win in the big metropolitan cities… London, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield.. ect There are not enough smaller towns in the midlands and the north that are going to be winnable to make a majority Can reform win in places outside of the more deprived areas of Kent, or of Essex? Can they win in the East Midlands outside of again a more deprived place like Mansfield, can they win in the West Midlands outside of again more deprived places like stoke? They may win in rural Lincolnshire, Grimsby, specific interest places like Rotherham, Rochdale, Oldham … but there are not enough places like that | |||
"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. There have been 83 local elections since May 2025. Results: RFM: 28 (+24) LDM: 23 (+5) CON: 11 (-6) LAB: 8 (-20) GRN: 7 (+3) Ind: 3 (-2) SNP: 1 (=) PLC: 1 (=) Local: 1 (-4) in the most recent, reform were utterly destroyed
Just horses for courses really.
In Cardiff the Greens took a usually safe Labour seat. Reform were never going to win it.
In the same election the Lib Dems came last with just 63 votes. Now that could be called "utterly destroyed". Reform got 495 BTW.
That doesn't mean that the Lib Dems will get wiped out in their south west England heartlands though. The same as Reform will still do well in the north and midlands.
Plenty more bye elections to come and Reform won't win them all but they'll win more than they lose.
You can bet the farm on that.
And that is reform’s problem that I highlighted earlier….
Reform are not going to win in Scotland..
are highly unlikely to win wales..
are not going to win in the Lib Dem’s South west heartland
Are not going to win in the big metropolitan cities… London, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield.. ect
There are not enough smaller towns in the midlands and the north that are going to be winnable to make a majority
Can reform win in places outside of the more deprived areas of Kent, or of Essex? Can they win in the East Midlands outside of again a more deprived place like Mansfield, can they win in the West Midlands outside of again more deprived places like stoke?
They may win in rural Lincolnshire, Grimsby, specific interest places like Rotherham, Rochdale, Oldham … but there are not enough places like that"We can add this to your previous greats: “Trump is so going to jail”. “Biden will beat Trump”. “Harris will beat Trump”. As I’ve said before all we need to do to know what is going to happen is to read your predictions, and we will know that the complete opposite will happen. | |||
"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread." You can't really say they were destroyed. That would suggest that they had some sort of base previously that had now crumbled. Since Reform have never previously stood in that ward, a poll of 13% represents an increase for them. I notice that you're not talking about the other ward in Cardiff that had a by-election last month, Llanrumney, where Reform came a close second to Labour with 33% of the vote having previously not stood in that ward. | |||
"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. You can't really say they were destroyed. That would suggest that they had some sort of base previously that had now crumbled. Since Reform have never previously stood in that ward, a poll of 13% represents an increase for them. I notice that you're not talking about the other ward in Cardiff that had a by-election last month, Llanrumney, where Reform came a close second to Labour with 33% of the vote having previously not stood in that ward." nope .... last thursday ... stop lying again. | |||
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"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread." "You can't really say they were destroyed. That would suggest that they had some sort of base previously that had now crumbled. Since Reform have never previously stood in that ward, a poll of 13% represents an increase for them. I notice that you're not talking about the other ward in Cardiff that had a by-election last month, Llanrumney, where Reform came a close second to Labour with 33% of the vote having previously not stood in that ward." "nope .... last thursday ... stop lying again." Last week was the Grangetown by-election. The Llanrumney by-election was 27th July. You really should be sure of your facts before calling someone a liar. | |||
"Election Maps’ latest Nowcast for General Election If held now: RFM: 339 (+334), 30.2% - (28 Seat Maj.) LAB: 112 (-299), 21.7% LDM: 77 (+5), 13.8% SNP: 46 (+37), 2.7% CON: 35 (-86), 18.5% PLC: 6 (+2), 1.0% GRN: 5 (+1), 8.4% Oth: 11 (+6), 3.6%" Do Reform even have 339 guys who won't turn out to own a Nazi memorabilia collection? | |||
"Election Maps’ latest Nowcast for General Election If held now: RFM: 339 (+334), 30.2% - (28 Seat Maj.) LAB: 112 (-299), 21.7% LDM: 77 (+5), 13.8% SNP: 46 (+37), 2.7% CON: 35 (-86), 18.5% PLC: 6 (+2), 1.0% GRN: 5 (+1), 8.4% Oth: 11 (+6), 3.6% Do Reform even have 339 guys who won't turn out to own a Nazi memorabilia collection?" It’s the anti semites in Labour who would have been more comfortable in Nazi Germany pal. | |||
"Election Maps’ latest Nowcast for General Election If held now: RFM: 339 (+334), 30.2% - (28 Seat Maj.) LAB: 112 (-299), 21.7% LDM: 77 (+5), 13.8% SNP: 46 (+37), 2.7% CON: 35 (-86), 18.5% PLC: 6 (+2), 1.0% GRN: 5 (+1), 8.4% Oth: 11 (+6), 3.6% Do Reform even have 339 guys who won't turn out to own a Nazi memorabilia collection? It’s the anti semites in Labour who would have been more comfortable in Nazi Germany pal." Documented Cases of Antisemitism Involving Reform UK Members 1. Antony Antoniou (Northampton North candidate) He posted antisemitic conspiracy theories—like Rothschild-related content—and shared a video defending Adolf Hitler. He claimed these were automated and denounced their intent, but the posts remain deeply concerning. 2. Tony Mack (Clacton candidate) He shared an antisemitic mural depicting stereotyped financiers (“Freedom for Humanity”) and invoked “globalist agenda” rhetoric—widely recognised as antisemitic dogwhistle content. 3. Mick Greenhough (Orpington candidate, April 2024) He referred to “Ashkenazi Jews” as causing “massive misery” and suggested banning Jews and Muslims from holding office—clearly offensive, antisemitic content. Reform UK dropped him from candidacy. 4. Candidates in 2025 local elections Multiple Reform candidates were found to have shared neo-Nazi or extremist content, including praising Hitler or referencing Britain First—often flagged as antisemitic material. 5. Ben Aston (Bournemouth West candidate) He claimed Jews were facilitating Muslim migration to the UK, invoking conspiracy theories associated with antisemitism. 6. Rupert Lowe (MP for Great Yarmouth; later suspended) He referred to a camera in Parliament as a “Jewish camera,” laughing it off as "politically incorrect." The statement was condemned as offensive by the Board of Deputies of British Jews. 7. Zia Yusuf (former party chairman) A post under his social media account liked a tweet with virulently antisemitic content about Jews importing “brown savages.” Yusuf blamed a team member and apologised, calling the content repugnant. 8. Jack Aaron (veteran with controversial past, appointed head of vetting) He had previously made comments involving Hitler, Assad, and Putin. Curious and troublingly, he's now overseeing vetting—raising concerns about internal contradictions. | |||
"Election Maps’ latest Nowcast for General Election If held now: RFM: 339 (+334), 30.2% - (28 Seat Maj.) LAB: 112 (-299), 21.7% LDM: 77 (+5), 13.8% SNP: 46 (+37), 2.7% CON: 35 (-86), 18.5% PLC: 6 (+2), 1.0% GRN: 5 (+1), 8.4% Oth: 11 (+6), 3.6% Do Reform even have 339 guys who won't turn out to own a Nazi memorabilia collection? It’s the anti semites in Labour who would have been more comfortable in Nazi Germany pal. Documented Cases of Antisemitism Involving Reform UK Members 1. Antony Antoniou (Northampton North candidate) He posted antisemitic conspiracy theories—like Rothschild-related content—and shared a video defending Adolf Hitler. He claimed these were automated and denounced their intent, but the posts remain deeply concerning. 2. Tony Mack (Clacton candidate) He shared an antisemitic mural depicting stereotyped financiers (“Freedom for Humanity”) and invoked “globalist agenda” rhetoric—widely recognised as antisemitic dogwhistle content. 3. Mick Greenhough (Orpington candidate, April 2024) He referred to “Ashkenazi Jews” as causing “massive misery” and suggested banning Jews and Muslims from holding office—clearly offensive, antisemitic content. Reform UK dropped him from candidacy. 4. Candidates in 2025 local elections Multiple Reform candidates were found to have shared neo-Nazi or extremist content, including praising Hitler or referencing Britain First—often flagged as antisemitic material. 5. Ben Aston (Bournemouth West candidate) He claimed Jews were facilitating Muslim migration to the UK, invoking conspiracy theories associated with antisemitism. 6. Rupert Lowe (MP for Great Yarmouth; later suspended) He referred to a camera in Parliament as a “Jewish camera,” laughing it off as "politically incorrect." The statement was condemned as offensive by the Board of Deputies of British Jews. 7. Zia Yusuf (former party chairman) A post under his social media account liked a tweet with virulently antisemitic content about Jews importing “brown savages.” Yusuf blamed a team member and apologised, calling the content repugnant. 8. Jack Aaron (veteran with controversial past, appointed head of vetting) He had previously made comments involving Hitler, Assad, and Putin. Curious and troublingly, he's now overseeing vetting—raising concerns about internal contradictions. " Antisemitism within the Labour Party has been documented across various periods, with notable instances dating back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries. During the Second Boer War (1899–1902), some labour movement figures, including Labour Party founder Keir Hardie, attributed the conflict to “Jewish capitalists,” reflecting antisemitic tropes about Jewish financial influence. The issue gained renewed prominence following Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader in 2015. Allegations centered on the use of antisemitic stereotypes, conspiracy theories, and offensive language by some party members, as well as the party’s handling of complaints. Certainly looking forward to seeing what jobs Lanour’s thick as pigshit MP’s get when they are all kicked out. | |||
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"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. You can't really say they were destroyed. That would suggest that they had some sort of base previously that had now crumbled. Since Reform have never previously stood in that ward, a poll of 13% represents an increase for them. I notice that you're not talking about the other ward in Cardiff that had a by-election last month, Llanrumney, where Reform came a close second to Labour with 33% of the vote having previously not stood in that ward. nope .... last thursday ... stop lying again. Last week was the Grangetown by-election. The Llanrumney by-election was 27th July. You really should be sure of your facts before calling someone a liar." so now you're trying to wriggling out of your lying when you got found out ... no surprises there then.  | |||
"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread." "You can't really say they were destroyed. That would suggest that they had some sort of base previously that had now crumbled. Since Reform have never previously stood in that ward, a poll of 13% represents an increase for them." "I notice that you're not talking about the other ward in Cardiff that had a by-election last month, Llanrumney, where Reform came a close second to Labour with 33% of the vote having previously not stood in that ward." "nope .... last thursday ... stop lying again." "Last week was the Grangetown by-election. The Llanrumney by-election was 27th July. You really should be sure of your facts before calling someone a liar." "so now you're trying to wriggling out of your lying when you got found out ... no surprises there then." This tactic again? OK. You quote the thing I said that you think is a lie, and I'll explain why you're wrong. | |||
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"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. There have been 83 local elections since May 2025. Results: RFM: 28 (+24) LDM: 23 (+5) CON: 11 (-6) LAB: 8 (-20) GRN: 7 (+3) Ind: 3 (-2) SNP: 1 (=) PLC: 1 (=) Local: 1 (-4) in the most recent, reform were utterly destroyed
Just horses for courses really.
In Cardiff the Greens took a usually safe Labour seat. Reform were never going to win it.
In the same election the Lib Dems came last with just 63 votes. Now that could be called "utterly destroyed". Reform got 495 BTW.
That doesn't mean that the Lib Dems will get wiped out in their south west England heartlands though. The same as Reform will still do well in the north and midlands.
Plenty more bye elections to come and Reform won't win them all but they'll win more than they lose.
You can bet the farm on that.
And that is reform’s problem that I highlighted earlier….
Reform are not going to win in Scotland..
are highly unlikely to win wales..
are not going to win in the Lib Dem’s South west heartland
Are not going to win in the big metropolitan cities… London, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield.. ect
There are not enough smaller towns in the midlands and the north that are going to be winnable to make a majority
Can reform win in places outside of the more deprived areas of Kent, or of Essex? Can they win in the East Midlands outside of again a more deprived place like Mansfield, can they win in the West Midlands outside of again more deprived places like stoke?
They may win in rural Lincolnshire, Grimsby, specific interest places like Rotherham, Rochdale, Oldham … but there are not enough places like that
We can add this to your previous greats:
“Trump is so going to jail”.
“Biden will beat Trump”.
“Harris will beat Trump”.
As I’ve said before all we need to do to know what is going to happen is to read your predictions, and we will know that the complete opposite will happen." is that the best you have? Seriously???
I was looking at just the plain numbers….
So let’s do that…buck
Any place where you think I am wrong.. I’m sure you will give evidence as to why!
650mps…. Reform have 5
So…. Reform doesn’t compete in Northern Ireland, are not winning any in Scotland, are unlikely to win any in Wales
So that is 18mps in northern Ireland, 57mps in Scotland, 32mps in wales….
So that’s 107 mps off the board!
Reform are unlikely to win seats in London …
That’s another 75mps……..
182 off the board before you look at Liverpool, or Manchester, or Sheffield, or Leeds, or Newcastle, or Bristol and the South west
There are not going to be enough winnable seats in other parts of the country to get to 325, unless reform cleared out the conservatives and took out the provincial red wall
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"and in the cardiff by-election this week reform were destroyed and came in a very poor fourth, showing what utter bollocks the polls are that the rabid righties are so desperately clinging to on this thread. There have been 83 local elections since May 2025. Results: RFM: 28 (+24) LDM: 23 (+5) CON: 11 (-6) LAB: 8 (-20) GRN: 7 (+3) Ind: 3 (-2) SNP: 1 (=) PLC: 1 (=) Local: 1 (-4) in the most recent, reform were utterly destroyed
Just horses for courses really.
In Cardiff the Greens took a usually safe Labour seat. Reform were never going to win it.
In the same election the Lib Dems came last with just 63 votes. Now that could be called "utterly destroyed". Reform got 495 BTW.
That doesn't mean that the Lib Dems will get wiped out in their south west England heartlands though. The same as Reform will still do well in the north and midlands.
Plenty more bye elections to come and Reform won't win them all but they'll win more than they lose.
You can bet the farm on that.
And that is reform’s problem that I highlighted earlier….
Reform are not going to win in Scotland..
are highly unlikely to win wales..
are not going to win in the Lib Dem’s South west heartland
Are not going to win in the big metropolitan cities… London, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield.. ect
There are not enough smaller towns in the midlands and the north that are going to be winnable to make a majority
Can reform win in places outside of the more deprived areas of Kent, or of Essex? Can they win in the East Midlands outside of again a more deprived place like Mansfield, can they win in the West Midlands outside of again more deprived places like stoke?
They may win in rural Lincolnshire, Grimsby, specific interest places like Rotherham, Rochdale, Oldham … but there are not enough places like that
We can add this to your previous greats:
“Trump is so going to jail”.
“Biden will beat Trump”.
“Harris will beat Trump”.
As I’ve said before all we need to do to know what is going to happen is to read your predictions, and we will know that the complete opposite will happen.
is that the best you have? Seriously???
I was looking at just the plain numbers….
So let’s do that…buck
Any place where you think I am wrong.. I’m sure you will give evidence as to why!
650mps…. Reform have 5
So…. Reform doesn’t compete in Northern Ireland, are not winning any in Scotland, are unlikely to win any in Wales
So that is 18mps in northern Ireland, 57mps in Scotland, 32mps in wales….
So that’s 107 mps off the board!
Reform are unlikely to win seats in London …
That’s another 75mps……..
182 off the board before you look at Liverpool, or Manchester, or Sheffield, or Leeds, or Newcastle, or Bristol and the South west
There are not going to be enough winnable seats in other parts of the country to get to 325, unless reform cleared out the conservatives and took out the provincial red wall
"The way Labour is going I can see it happening, would be unprecedented but it could happen. The country feels toxic at the moment and governments only approach appears to be tax, tax and tax some more. | |||
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"For the first time in my life I am actively looking to leave the country which is very sad." Where are you thinking of going to? | |||
"For the first time in my life I am actively looking to leave the country which is very sad. Where are you thinking of going to?" Looking at a few options, Ireland although that has challenges of its own or the channel Isles. Just fed up having contributed a huge amount of tax for years to see the politics of envy now targeting my savings, my home and my family. A society in which hard work and saving prudently is penalised is not one for me. Not to say I entirely blame Labour as the Tories are also complicit. GDP per capita growth non existent, the state as percentage of GDP almost double what it was in the Blair years, inflation impacting everyone. Just a whole combination of things together with a toxic environment just doesn't bode well. | |||
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"Well good luck to you I think Ireland has similar income tax to us with 20% basic rate and 40% above 44,000 Euros. VAT is 23%. CGT is 33%. Inheritance tax is 33%. Although the tax regime in the Channel Islands is favourable the cost of living there isn't as vitually everything has to be imported. I've never been there but hear it's a bit lacking in cultural highlights shall we say. Still if you can easily afford to travel to the UK or France frequently then I guess it might be a good place to retire to. " grass isn't always greener and it wouldn't be a purely financial decision. Lots to think about. | |||
"Well good luck to you I think Ireland has similar income tax to us with 20% basic rate and 40% above 44,000 Euros. VAT is 23%. CGT is 33%. Inheritance tax is 33%. Although the tax regime in the Channel Islands is favourable the cost of living there isn't as vitually everything has to be imported. I've never been there but hear it's a bit lacking in cultural highlights shall we say. Still if you can easily afford to travel to the UK or France frequently then I guess it might be a good place to retire to. " Hats off to Ireland for their economic success arising from well thought-out economic policies like strategic positioning, attracting foreign investment, a skilled, educated workforce, and a favourable business conditions. Contrast that with Labour's clueless economic policies, despite 14 years in opposition to prepare. Now completely floundering with u-turn after u-turn and no sense of direction, and faced with unprecedented tax rises to rescue a sinking ship. | |||
