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By (user no longer on site) 8 weeks ago
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"Is it now inevitable
Will it become another Afghanistan
Has trump fucked up again "
It’s a tricky one because the regime in Iran won’t care how many of their civilian population die in bombing raids. In fact they will think Trump is doing them a favour killing them for them, save them having to sharpen the swords.
I personally think the missile strike etc will continue for quite some time before a ground assault is considered.
Will also depend how many oil tankers are stuck by Iran. Deliberately targeting civilians vessels would have to trigger UN action. Otherwise they may as well not bother having a UN. |
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By (user no longer on site) 8 weeks ago
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"Is it now inevitable
Will it become another Afghanistan
Has trump fucked up again "
Rumoured now that the Pentagon suspect war until September.
And yes, Trump has fucked up. The war is illegal, and the majority of Americans are against it already. |
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"Is it now inevitable
Will it become another Afghanistan
Has trump fucked up again
Rumoured now that the Pentagon suspect war until September.
And yes, Trump has fucked up. The war is illegal, and the majority of Americans are against it already."
It's just going to be botched by Trump as he's only interested in himself. He's got no clear objectives and will be swayed by elections later this year. He's open to Russia getting stronger, via oil money, making Ukraine face a tougher war.
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Apparently the yanks are now considering re-introducing the draft in case substantial numbers of troops are required on the ground.
Be a bit ironic if it comes to pass especially under the Presidency of General Bone Spurs. |
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By *host63Man 8 weeks ago
Bedfont Feltham |
"Is it now inevitable
Will it become another Afghanistan
Has trump fucked up again "
Only USA boots on the ground. I think the UK and the EU will not be taking any part in this one even if Trump invokes article 5.
There may be limited presence if UK civilians are compromised but no Iraq, Afghanistan conflicts.
We are done I hope |
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There won't be boots on the ground, not worn by Americans in any case apart from the advisors with the Kurds if they go in..
Which they won't without air cover and the understanding that Erdogan won't take advantage in Syria etc.. |
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"Not seeing this happening.
92 million population with 610k army.
Kurds are nuisance value only.
Trump has royally messed up. "
You might be right, but there are possibly some alternative scenarios that we can't rule out (even if they are not the most likely ones). There are some serious fractures within the military at the moment, with a good amount of (unarmed) popular support against the regime. It's entirely possible that the regular army will see a lot of defections, or conversions. If the Basij feels that a day of reckoning is coming and that citizens are documenting who they are and that they're doing, then they might lay low or slink away entirely - these guys are cowardly thugs who were just mean men with a permit from the regime. The IRGC is the biggest issue, but if they're facing Kurds, US and Israeli support (air, logistics, intelligence, munitions), a hostile or deranged army and popular resistance (with limited thugs to repress them), then there is a chance.
But this will all take massive coordination and more than a little luck.
While probably not a good idea for leader in the long term, Reza Pahlavi can act as a lightning rod or rallying figure. Perhaps he could serve a life term as King as a transitional measure, or become the first president for a term.
Reza Pahlavi, in a statement to the Iranian people:
"
Dear fellow compatriots, we are now in a very sensitive stage of our final struggle.
I ask you to prepare your essential needs as soon as possible, and for the sake of your own security, leave the streets and stay in your homes. Continue the strike and do not show up for work. To demonstrate your unity, keep up the nighttime chants with full force.
To the military and security forces: This is the last chance to separate yourselves from the repressive forces and join the people.
Await my final call.
"
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