FabSwingers.com > Forums > Politics > Has Moggy & the ERG lost all credibility
Has Moggy & the ERG lost all credibility
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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So, the Prince of the supposedly powerful European Research Group "ERG" within the Tory party has shot his bolt to no effect, does that mean any credibility Moggy / ERG may have had is all but gone now ?
OLD Moggy has obviously been working hard in the background to destabilise everything May has been trying to negotiate for a long time now. The supposed threat from the ERG was plain to see that they thought themselves or Moggy did that they were a force to be reckoned with and if Moggy decided to act then his ERG would follow suit.
So Moggy FINALLY publicly put in his letter to the 1922 and I don't think for a minute he would have done so without the belief the majority of his chums would also follow suit.
So the 1922 only needs 48 letters, the ERG number around 66 or more members and with many other none ERG MP's already handed in their letters to the 1922 it really looks like Moggy has been castrated by his own ERG through the lack of support he thought was guaranteed.
Now the 1922 very well may end up getting the 48 letters at some stage but I get the feeling that Moggy set the stage only for his chums to abandon him and very publicly indeed.
So, do you think that Moggy & the ERG are a spent force now ? They had their chance to publicly be seen to trigger a vote of no confidence but they didn't muster the support from within.
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Had they been fully behind him then yes the 48 would have been submitted that same day, that does not mean they still wont be but they and him do look to be not so confident in their claims that scores of other Tory MP's were biding their time.. |
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The ERG are slowly turning the screw on Theresa May. They don't need the 48 letters right now the time to defeat May will be when the vote on the Chequers deal comes to Parliament and the ERG will vote against it. That will be the optimal point for the rest of the ERG to put their letters of no confidence in. Some letters had to go in when Mogg's went in to show dissatisfaction with the Deal but I think it's a tactic of slowly turning the screw on May until the vote on the Brexit deal comes to parliament, then more letters will go in if the deal is voted down. The DUP are also doing a fine job of turning the screws on May as well, effectively doing the ERG's legwork for them. |
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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago
Grantham |
JRM is now trying to change the dynamic by suggesting that if they don't get rid of TM now, then she would be there to lead the Conservatives into the next GE. I see this as an attempt to try and win the "possibles" over. Whether is has any traction however, remains to be seen.
It's rather pointed that Boris Johnson, chief architect of Leave, who was never off our TV screens, is now reduced to writing a weekly column in the Telegraph. That's some marginalisation! |
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"The ERG are slowly turning the screw on Theresa May. They don't need the 48 letters right now the time to defeat May will be when the vote on the Chequers deal comes to Parliament and the ERG will vote against it. That will be the optimal point for the rest of the ERG to put their letters of no confidence in. Some letters had to go in when Mogg's went in to show dissatisfaction with the Deal but I think it's a tactic of slowly turning the screw on May until the vote on the Brexit deal comes to parliament, then more letters will go in if the deal is voted down. The DUP are also doing a fine job of turning the screws on May as well, effectively doing the ERG's legwork for them. "
Mogg last week was giving it the Grand Old Duke of York, he spoke in Parliament about the probability of his own letter going in and it was a rallying call to his supporters..
it has thus far failed to materialise, so fair play for now trying to paint a picture of some sort of strategy by him and the ERG..
did you take it from the book of spin?
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
To be fair to Theresa May and to give some (between gritted teeth) credit - she appears at this stage to have played the ERG and seriously embarrassed Mogg and his fanboys.
Cameron was scared of them and Theresa May has stood up to them and made them play their cards too early.
Can’t stand the woman - but fair play. Great strategy, well played out. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"The ERG are slowly turning the screw on Theresa May. They don't need the 48 letters right now the time to defeat May will be when the vote on the Chequers deal comes to Parliament and the ERG will vote against it. That will be the optimal point for the rest of the ERG to put their letters of no confidence in. Some letters had to go in when Mogg's went in to show dissatisfaction with the Deal but I think it's a tactic of slowly turning the screw on May until the vote on the Brexit deal comes to parliament, then more letters will go in if the deal is voted down. The DUP are also doing a fine job of turning the screws on May as well, effectively doing the ERG's legwork for them. "
the way it has played out, TM has basically st up the ERG and the DUP as the fall guys if the "no deal" scenario were now to happen..... in an accidental way, it is almost now pure brilliance
she can turn around... say she tried, and when it goes really tits up for the couple of weeks of no deal, (i still think there will be an emergency solution done by the beginning of easter.... beasically the first 3 weeks of april are gonna be really rough, but it will done on the EU's terms) people are going to turn so much on them there is no way they become electable again.. the DUP are going to get wiped out in NI |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"OP....do you really think he had credibility in the first place?"
Honestly, I don't think his solutions to NI amounted to anything in the realms of credibility.
I thought "like he did" that he had the support of the ERG & when he made his very public display of his letter to the 1922, that time, right then was the ERG's time to show THEY had the collective clout to do something major.
It's now been shown to be very different. If the magic number of letters do eventually arrive there's no real public display the ERG can claim credit for like they squandered by them not following Moggys play.
I think their a done force in that context now.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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If they think it is going to be voted down I’m not sure why you’d wait. If you want anything other than a nondeals Brexit you’d need to act now/ages ago.
I wonder if they want the deal, at least to get transition time, and then move. They need just enough noise to keep MPs believing a coup is on the cards and has the numbers to go thorough. But not enough to action .... yet. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"The ERG are slowly turning the screw on Theresa May. They don't need the 48 letters right now the time to defeat May will be when the vote on the Chequers deal comes to Parliament and the ERG will vote against it. That will be the optimal point for the rest of the ERG to put their letters of no confidence in. Some letters had to go in when Mogg's went in to show dissatisfaction with the Deal but I think it's a tactic of slowly turning the screw on May until the vote on the Brexit deal comes to parliament, then more letters will go in if the deal is voted down. The DUP are also doing a fine job of turning the screws on May as well, effectively doing the ERG's legwork for them. "
If the ERG are so against May's deal, why risk Parliament voting to approve May's deal though ?
Why wait for Parliament to hopefully vote it down before trying to oust her, it makes no sense.
I wonder if May will use the ultimatum it's my deal or no BREXIT to enough Labour & Tory MP's to swing it or let the deal get voted down, survive a challenge and scrap BREXIT citing Parliaments reluctance to leaving the EU.
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Firstly I don’t believe he or they had any credibility to start with,
Secondly, the DUP will be returned in NI with the exact same number of seats! The northern voter doesn’t vote according to conscience or policy, only colour, green or orange!
If the ERG has the 48letters, they would be in now, why make the big deal of it and not follow through, oh yeah turning the screw! That’s just spin when they couldnt muster the letters!
Although there is no reason why it couldn’t happen going forward though, but the momentum is lost now! |
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"The ERG are slowly turning the screw on Theresa May. They don't need the 48 letters right now the time to defeat May will be when the vote on the Chequers deal comes to Parliament and the ERG will vote against it. That will be the optimal point for the rest of the ERG to put their letters of no confidence in. Some letters had to go in when Mogg's went in to show dissatisfaction with the Deal but I think it's a tactic of slowly turning the screw on May until the vote on the Brexit deal comes to parliament, then more letters will go in if the deal is voted down. The DUP are also doing a fine job of turning the screws on May as well, effectively doing the ERG's legwork for them.
the way it has played out, TM has basically st up the ERG and the DUP as the fall guys if the "no deal" scenario were now to happen..... in an accidental way, it is almost now pure brilliance
she can turn around... say she tried, and when it goes really tits up for the couple of weeks of no deal, (i still think there will be an emergency solution done by the beginning of easter.... beasically the first 3 weeks of april are gonna be really rough, but it will done on the EU's terms) people are going to turn so much on them there is no way they become electable again.. the DUP are going to get wiped out in NI "
You're dreaming Fabio the scaremongering and predictions of economic Arrmaggeddon put about by remoaners surrounding no deal are utterly nonsensical. Roger Bootle, chairman of capital economics writing in the Sun today pointed out that time and time again throughout history the establishment, The Treasury and business groups like the cBI scaremongering about no deal now have been on the wrong side of history with false predictions and forecasts. In the 1930's just about the whole UK establishment wanted the UK to stay on the Gold standard, which was exerting extreme deflationary pressure on the UK economy. The great and the good told everyone if we left all hell would break loose. We did leave and all heaven broke loose, with the fastest sustained growth of output in our industrial history. Then again in 1992, we were trapped in the ERM (European Exchange Rate Mechanism). The same people like the Treasury and the cBI said if we left the ERM we would face economic catastrophe. In the end we were forced out of the ERM, despite the establishment best efforts to stay in and the result was lower inflation, lower interest rates and brought unemployment and the budget deficit down sharply. Again in the 00's the same people were at it again (don't they ever learn?) Saying that we'd turn into an economic basket case if we didn't join the Euro.
Look what happened when we didn't join the Euro compared to countries who did....
Germany and France economies have grown by 32%
The Italians grown by 9%
The UK who kept the pound and rejected the Euro has grown by 44% outperforming the lot of them.
Now the establishment and the same people are at it again about Brexit, when they have such a poor track record why would you trust them?
The Treasury forecasts lead by remainer Hammond surrounding no deal have also kept their economic modelling secret, refusing to release details of assumptions made which give the results of their forecasts. How can they be taken seriously when they won't even show the model which gives those forecasts?
No Deal will give some short term disruption but nothing like the scaremongering you're guilty of on here.
Staying in Theresa May's deal will be the start of economic decline in this country, trapped inside a customs union in a stagnating EU , while the rest of the world grows at a much higher rate. Then the ERG and the DUP can point the finger of blame at May and Hammond.
Theresa May and Hammond's political death will come very quickly.
Alternatively we can leave on no deal and prosper outside of the EU, and the ERG and the DUP can be seen as the saviours of this country while the EU crumbles. |
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"The ERG are slowly turning the screw on Theresa May. They don't need the 48 letters right now the time to defeat May will be when the vote on the Chequers deal comes to Parliament and the ERG will vote against it. That will be the optimal point for the rest of the ERG to put their letters of no confidence in. Some letters had to go in when Mogg's went in to show dissatisfaction with the Deal but I think it's a tactic of slowly turning the screw on May until the vote on the Brexit deal comes to parliament, then more letters will go in if the deal is voted down. The DUP are also doing a fine job of turning the screws on May as well, effectively doing the ERG's legwork for them. "
In this I think Centy is right. JRM is the stalking horse, the others who wish to move the Conservative party further to the right and further de regulate the UK turning it into a European off-shore tax haven and low regulation, low wage sweatshop will not break cover until they know for certain that they can force Maygabbi out and install someone like Gove in No 10. JRM will continue to undermine the maybot until an unlikely assassin emerges from the non-shadows of the cabinet to deliver a fatal resignation speech from the backbenches in the style of Geoffrey Howe. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Alternatively we can leave on no deal and prosper outside of the EU, and the ERG and the DUP can be seen as the saviours of this country while the EU crumbles. "
So we leave on no deal, what do you propose The UK Government does regarding The Good Friday Agreement ?
Tiny detail I know but has that figured in your no deal scenario & the ERG's so called solution's ain't worth a toss.
So, how do we do this no deal of yours ? |
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Alternatively we can leave on no deal and prosper outside of the EU, and the ERG and the DUP can be seen as the saviours of this country while the EU crumbles.
So we leave on no deal, what do you propose The UK Government does regarding The Good Friday Agreement ?
Tiny detail I know but has that figured in your no deal scenario & the ERG's so called solution's ain't worth a toss.
So, how do we do this no deal of yours ?"
Theresa May met members of the ERG in Downing street just yesterday to discuss the Maximum Facilitation options for the Irish border. Ian Duncan Smith and former Northern Ireland secretary Owen Patterson along with one of the key figures in the signing of the good Friday agreement David Trimble. The technology needed already exists in combination with other solutions like trusted trader schemes. So it is possible to have an invisible border there in a no deal scenario that doesn't break the good Friday agreement. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Alternatively we can leave on no deal and prosper outside of the EU, and the ERG and the DUP can be seen as the saviours of this country while the EU crumbles.
So we leave on no deal, what do you propose The UK Government does regarding The Good Friday Agreement ?
Tiny detail I know but has that figured in your no deal scenario & the ERG's so called solution's ain't worth a toss.
So, how do we do this no deal of yours ?
Theresa May met members of the ERG in Downing street just yesterday to discuss the Maximum Facilitation options for the Irish border. Ian Duncan Smith and former Northern Ireland secretary Owen Patterson along with one of the key figures in the signing of the good Friday agreement David Trimble. The technology needed already exists in combination with other solutions like trusted trader schemes. So it is possible to have an invisible border there in a no deal scenario that doesn't break the good Friday agreement. "
If it's all as simple as you say then BREXIT is unstoppable  |
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No credibility regardless of their failing attempts to push the UK backwards. Dangerous individuals wanting your wealth and wellbeing crushed, so that they can prosper at your expense.
They are a fringe extremist group, representative of the conservatives who are in civil war and wanting more power - but the others won't jump to Moggs command.
They have some power but are given disproportionately high levels of positive media coverage. |
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"
Alternatively we can leave on no deal and prosper outside of the EU, and the ERG and the DUP can be seen as the saviours of this country while the EU crumbles.
So we leave on no deal, what do you propose The UK Government does regarding The Good Friday Agreement ?
Tiny detail I know but has that figured in your no deal scenario & the ERG's so called solution's ain't worth a toss.
So, how do we do this no deal of yours ?
Theresa May met members of the ERG in Downing street just yesterday to discuss the Maximum Facilitation options for the Irish border. Ian Duncan Smith and former Northern Ireland secretary Owen Patterson along with one of the key figures in the signing of the good Friday agreement David Trimble. The technology needed already exists in combination with other solutions like trusted trader schemes. So it is possible to have an invisible border there in a no deal scenario that doesn't break the good Friday agreement. "
The technology doesnt exist. Whatever these ERG cretins say, it's pie in the sky stuff at the moment |
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The ERG is a who's who of has beens and never will bes with an unhealthy dose of just plain swivel eyed lunacy. They have no credibility except in their own weird bubble.
What I want to know is why they think they should be the arbiters of what leave should look like? Their arrogance is only matched by their stupidity, |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"The ERG is a who's who of has beens and never will bes with an unhealthy dose of just plain swivel eyed lunacy. They have no credibility except in their own weird bubble.
What I want to know is why they think they should be the arbiters of what leave should look like? Their arrogance is only matched by their stupidity,"
Their going to stand on all the crossings between Ireland & Northern Ireland with their Polaroid camera's to facilitate Maximum Facilitation  |
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It doesn't matter whether it's May, Mogg, BoJo, Gove, Raab or some other person. It changes nothing except to waist time add to the confusion and contribute to the BREXITERS delusion that the problem is not BREXIT and if they'd just done this, had that or said something else it would all totally different.
Mogg, and with him any hope of a 'no deal' BREXIT, which was never considered a realistic option by any sane MP from either side, has overreached himself. The choice now is either May's BREXIT or no BREXIT. Personally I'd prefer no BREXIT. Let's get on with the vote. It makes not a joy of difference to BREXIT now whoever leads the Conservative Party.
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
And these are the people who reckon they'd be better at negotiating with the EU 27 and the rest of the world?
They cannot get 48 of their own to sign a letter, and want us to believe they'll be shit-hot at getting 27 nation states to bend to their will?
Dreamers.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"And these are the people who reckon they'd be better at negotiating with the EU 27 and the rest of the world?
They cannot get 48 of their own to sign a letter, and want us to believe they'll be shit-hot at getting 27 nation states to bend to their will?
Dreamers.
"
Yes |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"The title of this thread suggests that the ERG and JRM had some credibility from the start."
They had some, maybe not a great deal but everyone's got a certain amount of credibility until they lose it, and that's what's happened to Moggy & the ERG |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The title of this thread suggests that the ERG and JRM had some credibility from the start.
They had some, maybe not a great deal but everyone's got a certain amount of credibility until they lose it, and that's what's happened to Moggy & the ERG "
Actually, what it does prove, that are all "mouth" they talk a good talk, but when it comes to delivery - failure! If brexit doesn't go well - then, if I was a leading brexiteer, I would be very much afraid! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The title of this thread suggests that the ERG and JRM had some credibility from the start.
They had some, maybe not a great deal but everyone's got a certain amount of credibility until they lose it, and that's what's happened to Moggy & the ERG
Actually, what it does prove, that are all "mouth" they talk a good talk, but when it comes to delivery - failure! If brexit doesn't go well - then, if I was a leading brexiteer, I would be very much afraid!"
I honestly don’t thing any of these ERG men give a fuck what we think of them when Brexit causes the uk to go down the toilet. The only reason they’re championing Brexit is so they can gain power and influcnece. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Not just power and influence, Like old patriotic Moggy they will have moved there finances so that they will not feel any financial hit......MONEY is there god and the lemmings have helped them  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"So, the Prince of the supposedly powerful European Research Group "ERG" within the Tory party has shot his bolt to no effect, does that mean any credibility Moggy / ERG may have had is all but gone now ?"
yes, after todays mauling, it's an irrefutable fact  |
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