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For the number crunchers here
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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The conservatives have lost in excess of about 1275 seats, the lib dems more than doubled their number of councilors, the Greens have more than trebled theirs, independents are now a sizeable block on councils, labour has a bad night, but in a different time a loss of c100 seats wouldn’t be dramatic!
With this in mind, if there were a general election in the morning, how would Westminster look?
Are the Conservatives in the territory of the Canadian Progressive Conservative party of 1993?? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The conservatives have lost in excess of about 1275 seats, the lib dems more than doubled their number of councilors, the Greens have more than trebled theirs, independents are now a sizeable block on councils, labour has a bad night, but in a different time a loss of c100 seats wouldn’t be dramatic!
With this in mind, if there were a general election in the morning, how would Westminster look?
Are the Conservatives in the territory of the Canadian Progressive Conservative party of 1993?? "
Hi. This is just a wake up call for the Conservatives.
.
People think a lot more carefully about how they vote in a general election.
Being realistic how many people would want to see either Jeremy Corbyn or John Mc Dowell in power. Both are terrorist sympathisers and John Mc Dowell nearly destroyed one council through his incompetence. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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I hear what ye are saying, but
If the Brexit party stood candidates in a GE, they would pick up a huge conservative vote!
If the conservatives are presently in 40%, and then you add the Brexit Party into the mix, they will poll about 16-20%, mostly taken of the Cons, thereby reducing their vote to under 30%
???? |
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
there are a lot of europeans in the uk who can vote in local elections and my guess is most would vote for a remain party,they are not eligible to vote in general elections though so very hard to determine through local elections what would happen in a general election. |
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It's hard to say, as local themes and issues also raise at council elections.
Greater turnout should and likely would happen and labour often suffer disproportionately when it doesn't. I'm like others and seeing no overall majority. Unsure DUP get a chance to help anyone. Nor whether these council results translate to more than 5 or 6 Libdem seats (a huge increase, all the same).
With a longer time for campaigns, Brexit to be fxked up even more etc, results could be more decisive. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"It's hard to say, as local themes and issues also raise at council elections.
Greater turnout should and likely would happen and labour often suffer disproportionately when it doesn't. I'm like others and seeing no overall majority. Unsure DUP get a chance to help anyone. Nor whether these council results translate to more than 5 or 6 Libdem seats (a huge increase, all the sam
With a longer time for campaigns, Brexit to be fxked up even more etc, results could be more decisive. "
Would you not think, that because it is local elections, and local themes and issues are raised, as well as the fact that votes are often personal to a local candidate, that this may have saved the Cons from an even worse drubbing??
Just putting that out there??
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"a G.E Would still be won by the tories theres plenty labour supporters who will not vote why corbyn is there.they are about as electable as when michael foot was leader while corbyn is there"
The labour vote held up, to an extent in that they lost less than 100 councilors, which is unremarkable!
Throw a Brexit party into the mix in a GE and that conservative vote will be reduced by 1/3!
McDonnell and Corbyn were there at the last election and, correct me if I’m wrong, but they were the highest or second highest polling party in most constituencies,
Looking like a Labour Majority and maybe LibDems as the second largest party, or am I being completely daft??? |
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By *estivalMan
over a year ago
borehamwood |
when push comes to shove tories in a G.E Will not let corbyn in if it was someone other than him leading labour id say you would probably be right.personaly id like to see the house of commons collapse on top of all of them |
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"a G.E Would still be won by the tories theres plenty labour supporters who will not vote why corbyn is there.they are about as electable as when michael foot was leader while corbyn is there
The labour vote held up, to an extent in that they lost less than 100 councilors, which is unremarkable!
Throw a Brexit party into the mix in a GE and that conservative vote will be reduced by 1/3!
McDonnell and Corbyn were there at the last election and, correct me if I’m wrong, but they were the highest or second highest polling party in most constituencies,
Looking like a Labour Majority and maybe LibDems as the second largest party, or am I being completely daft??? "
Think you are being daft lol You actually think that labour did well losing a 100 councilors?????? the state of the tories at the moment labour should have wiped them off the map but end up losing seats themselves and in typical labour strongholds it shows how week corbyn and his party are to me. |
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UKIP Lost over 90% of their council seats the Tories over 25% labour less than 5% . Those saying the two main parties have lost public support need to be honest . Only UKIP and Tories have lost a high percentage of their councillors . |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"a G.E Would still be won by the tories theres plenty labour supporters who will not vote why corbyn is there.they are about as electable as when michael foot was leader while corbyn is there
The labour vote held up, to an extent in that they lost less than 100 councilors, which is unremarkable!
Throw a Brexit party into the mix in a GE and that conservative vote will be reduced by 1/3!
McDonnell and Corbyn were there at the last election and, correct me if I’m wrong, but they were the highest or second highest polling party in most constituencies,
Looking like a Labour Majority and maybe LibDems as the second largest party, or am I being completely daft??? Think you are being daft lol You actually think that labour did well losing a 100 councilors?????? the state of the tories at the moment labour should have wiped them off the map but end up losing seats themselves and in typical labour strongholds it shows how week corbyn and his party are to me."
I agree with you that they should have wiped the floor with the Cons, but they didn’t! I never said that they did well, never even suggested as such.
What I did say was that their vote held up, please don’t misrepresent me!!!
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Labour 255
Lib dems 183
Conservative 119
Snp 48
New party 15
Green 11
SF 9
UUp 6
Dup 4
Well done for putting something out there! I would but I am watching UK politics from a distance! So I am not in a position to make a prediction, but from where I see it, Labour the largest party and Lib dems second after the next GE!
Labour got 40% in the last GE, if that holds up to 35%, I think they will have an overall majority! As the Cons will lose a significant % to the Brexit party,
Total 650
"
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"a G.E Would still be won by the tories theres plenty labour supporters who will not vote why corbyn is there.they are about as electable as when michael foot was leader while corbyn is there
The labour vote held up, to an extent in that they lost less than 100 councilors, which is unremarkable!
Throw a Brexit party into the mix in a GE and that conservative vote will be reduced by 1/3!
McDonnell and Corbyn were there at the last election and, correct me if I’m wrong, but they were the highest or second highest polling party in most constituencies,
Looking like a Labour Majority and maybe LibDems as the second largest party, or am I being completely daft??? Think you are being daft lol You actually think that labour did well losing a 100 councilors?????? the state of the tories at the moment labour should have wiped them off the map but end up losing seats themselves and in typical labour strongholds it shows how week corbyn and his party are to me.
I agree with you that they should have wiped the floor with the Cons, but they didn’t! I never said that they did well, never even suggested as such.
What I did say was that their vote held up, please don’t misrepresent me!!!
"
i would,nt say losing 100 seats it holding up either. |
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By *ip73Man
over a year ago
Stanwell |
In my ward I had choice of three parties Con, Lab and UKIP (None of which a decent option). other areas had the same issue maybe if all parties were represented in all wards Labour would have lost more along the the Conservatives loss. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"The conservatives have lost in excess of about 1275 seats, the lib dems more than doubled their number of councilors, the Greens have more than trebled theirs, independents are now a sizeable block on councils, labour has a bad night, but in a different time a loss of c100 seats wouldn’t be dramatic!
Conservative Party and Brexit Party together have most seats.
But they are so argumentative that Mr Corbyn becomes PM with a DUP-style deal with the Scot Nats .
With this in mind, if there were a general election in the morning, how would Westminster look?
Are the Conservatives in the territory of the Canadian Progressive Conservative party of 1993?? "
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"a G.E Would still be won by the tories theres plenty labour supporters who will not vote why corbyn is there.they are about as electable as when michael foot was leader while corbyn is there
The labour vote held up, to an extent in that they lost less than 100 councilors, which is unremarkable!
Throw a Brexit party into the mix in a GE and that conservative vote will be reduced by 1/3!
McDonnell and Corbyn were there at the last election and, correct me if I’m wrong, but they were the highest or second highest polling party in most constituencies,
Looking like a Labour Majority and maybe LibDems as the second largest party, or am I being completely daft??? Think you are being daft lol You actually think that labour did well losing a 100 councilors?????? the state of the tories at the moment labour should have wiped them off the map but end up losing seats themselves and in typical labour strongholds it shows how week corbyn and his party are to me.
I agree with you that they should have wiped the floor with the Cons, but they didn’t! I never said that they did well, never even suggested as such.
What I did say was that their vote held up, please don’t misrepresent me!!!
i would,nt say losing 100 seats it holding up either."
At the last local election they had 29% of the vote! At this one they had 28%. So they actually reduced their percentage of the popular vote by 1%, that’ in my book is holding up!
Perhaps you don’t understand what I mean when I say that, It basically means that there was no significant drop in their support
I respect your view, although they are argumentative and misguided, please respect mine, which are based on fact!! |
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By *imiUKMan
over a year ago
Newbury |
"a G.E Would still be won by the tories theres plenty labour supporters who will not vote why corbyn is there.they are about as electable as when michael foot was leader while corbyn is there"
Labour have led in the GE polls for some time..... |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
"The conservatives have lost in excess of about 1275 seats, the lib dems more than doubled their number of councilors, the Greens have more than trebled theirs, independents are now a sizeable block on councils, labour has a bad night, but in a different time a loss of c100 seats wouldn’t be dramatic!
With this in mind, if there were a general election in the morning, how would Westminster look?
Are the Conservatives in the territory of the Canadian Progressive Conservative party of 1993?? "
MAGNIFICENT BREASTS |
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"UKIP Lost over 90% of their council seats the Tories over 25% labour less than 5% . Those saying the two main parties have lost public support need to be honest . Only UKIP and Tories have lost a high percentage of their councillors . "
When you're the main opposition party and the party in power lose 1334 seats and you somehow manage to lose seats as well then something is very badly wrong. This is catastrophic for Labour. |
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"Re: the local elections. Both Labour and the Tories were punished in their heartlands. The Tories in Tory seats who voted remain and labour in the northern leave voting seats. "
Labour also lost seats inthe North to the Lib Dems. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
not as simple as seeing how many seats were lost and won...
you have to remember the last time these local election council seats were up... it was on the same day as the 2015 General election, that was the same one that basically the conservatives over performed and got their overall majority, and the lib dems got decimated as the junior partner in the coalition....
not saying losing 1200 seats isn't bad... but needs to be looked into context...
so actually.... the conservatives had a not good night.... but you could make an arguement that labour had a worse night, because in seats that were in places that were 56% leave, labour should have still done better that it did for being in opposition for 9 yrs....
to keep it simple... conservatives got clobbered by leave voters, labour got clobbered by leave and remain voters for the "fudge"....
if you stand in the middle of the road...you get run over from both directions, labour needs to get out and tell people what there position is |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"Re: the local elections. Both Labour and the Tories were punished in their heartlands. The Tories in Tory seats who voted remain and labour in the northern leave voting seats. "
if i was labour... i'd worry about losing marginal seats in the north.....
if i was a tory... i'd worry about the lib dem revival in the south.....
and this is why there is not going to be a general election!...... more chance of that 2nd referendum |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Re: the local elections. Both Labour and the Tories were punished in their heartlands. The Tories in Tory seats who voted remain and labour in the northern leave voting seats.
if i was labour... i'd worry about losing marginal seats in the north.....
if i was a tory... i'd worry about the lib dem revival in the south.....
and this is why there is not going to be a general election!...... more chance of that 2nd referendum"
Exactly, well said,
Both main parties have a lot to loose, but I think the conservatives could be completely decimated, for that reason, there’ll be no election until the final day of this fixed term parliament!
Replacing May will not save the Conservatives! They are fucked either way, but if an arch Brexiteer does take over, and fails to deliver Brexit, there problems will be a lot worse than what they presently are!!! |
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"a G.E Would still be won by the tories theres plenty labour supporters who will not vote why corbyn is there.they are about as electable as when michael foot was leader while corbyn is there
The labour vote held up, to an extent in that they lost less than 100 councilors, which is unremarkable!
Throw a Brexit party into the mix in a GE and that conservative vote will be reduced by 1/3!
McDonnell and Corbyn were there at the last election and, correct me if I’m wrong, but they were the highest or second highest polling party in most constituencies,
Looking like a Labour Majority and maybe LibDems as the second largest party, or am I being completely daft??? "
I don't think you're being daft but I do think your analysis is not deep enough. The last time most of these seats were fought was at the same time as the 2015 General Election. Both Labour and the LibDems did very badly in these elections back then and so started this time from a very low base. For the Conservatives it's the opposite, they did better than expected in 2015 and started this time from a very high base.
For the Conservatives to look likely to win the next General Election they should have been looking at loosing no more than 300 seats.
For Labour to look likely to win the next General Election they should have been looking at gaining more than 400 seats.
For the LibDems to look likely to be a significant presence after a General Election the should have been looking at gaining more than 500 seats.
These results are a clamity for the Conservatives, pretty bad for Labour and quite good for the LibDems.
The message from these local elections for both Labour and the Conservatives is clearly "Stop BREXIT", however it's not a complete picture because there really was no option for many hard, no deal BREXITERS to vote for.
The real test is now 23 May where parties backing a hard BREXIT will be available for people to vote for.
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"UKIP Lost over 90% of their council seats the Tories over 25% labour less than 5% . Those saying the two main parties have lost public support need to be honest . Only UKIP and Tories have lost a high percentage of their councillors . "
Labour where starting from a very low base. The last time these seats were fought was at the 2015 general election, which Labour lost badly. They may be only 5% down but that's 5% down from a loosing position.
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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago
Grantham |
"not as simple as seeing how many seats were lost and won...
you have to remember the last time these local election council seats were up... it was on the same day as the 2015 General election, that was the same one that basically the conservatives over performed and got their overall majority, and the lib dems got decimated as the junior partner in the coalition....
not saying losing 1200 seats isn't bad... but needs to be looked into context...
so actually.... the conservatives had a not good night.... but you could make an arguement that labour had a worse night, because in seats that were in places that were 56% leave, labour should have still done better that it did for being in opposition for 9 yrs....
to keep it simple... conservatives got clobbered by leave voters, labour got clobbered by leave and remain voters for the "fudge"....
if you stand in the middle of the road...you get run over from both directions, labour needs to get out and tell people what there position is"
Loved Labour MP Jess Phillips having a go at Diane Abbot yesterday.
Labour's Brexit message is confused, maybe deliberately so, and the look of exasperation on Mrs Phillip's face as Diane Abbot kept bleating on about a General Election made my day yesterday. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"
Loved Labour MP Jess Phillips having a go at Diane Abbot yesterday.
Labour's Brexit message is confused, maybe deliberately so, and the look of exasperation on Mrs Phillip's face as Diane Abbot kept bleating on about a General Election made my day yesterday. "
i am a huge fan of jess phillips.... she is number 3 on my political crush list after heidi allen and stella creasy...
they all tell it like it is an such a simplistic fashion....... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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If you were to add a Green Party representative in any of the areas that only had Tory, labour and UKIP I bet lots of folk would have chose green because they didn’t want to vote for any of the others ! Me personally I’m hoping for a LibDem revival as I’ve lost all faith in snp which I’ve voted for since Scottish independence vote, now I think it’s time to go back to my original party and hope they don’t bend over and take it up the arse like they did when they got the coalition. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"If you were to add a Green Party representative in any of the areas that only had Tory, labour and UKIP I bet lots of folk would have chose green because they didn’t want to vote for any of the others ! Me personally I’m hoping for a LibDem revival as I’ve lost all faith in snp which I’ve voted for since Scottish independence vote, now I think it’s time to go back to my original party and hope they don’t bend over and take it up the arse like they did when they got the coalition. "
i think that is where someone like jo swinson, if she becomes leader after cables goes after the euros will help, because she is far enough detacted from what happened in the coalition for them to wipe the slate clean and reboot...
i do think i would help the anti brexit centre ground if there could be some agreement reached between the lib dems and the TIGs.... that would almost be too sensible... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"If you were to add a Green Party representative in any of the areas that only had Tory, labour and UKIP I bet lots of folk would have chose green because they didn’t want to vote for any of the others ! Me personally I’m hoping for a LibDem revival as I’ve lost all faith in snp which I’ve voted for since Scottish independence vote, now I think it’s time to go back to my original party and hope they don’t bend over and take it up the arse like they did when they got the coalition. "
I think you'll see a revival with new leadership which seems imminent,liberal gains will mostly come at the expense of conservative MPs. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"If you were to add a Green Party representative in any of the areas that only had Tory, labour and UKIP I bet lots of folk would have chose green because they didn’t want to vote for any of the others ! Me personally I’m hoping for a LibDem revival as I’ve lost all faith in snp which I’ve voted for since Scottish independence vote, now I think it’s time to go back to my original party and hope they don’t bend over and take it up the arse like they did when they got the coalition. "
You say it like it's a bad thing!
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"Winchester will lose its Tory MP amongst other constituencies - strong LD opportunity  "
I think disillusioned Conservative Remain voters would be more inclined to vote LibDem than Green but may well be even more to vote ChangeUK than either of them. I guess it depends whether ChangeUK positions themselves relative to the centre. What is sadly missing in British politics right now is a centre right party.
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"Conservatives would be the biggest party still, but theyd lose enough to make forming a coalition impossible.
Most likely would be Labour/SNP/Lib Dem government."
Dear God no, that would be the start of the fall into a hard line right wing government in my opinion. Think Italy before Mussolini. |
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By *imiUKMan
over a year ago
Newbury |
"If you were to add a Green Party representative in any of the areas that only had Tory, labour and UKIP I bet lots of folk would have chose green because they didn’t want to vote for any of the others ! Me personally I’m hoping for a LibDem revival as I’ve lost all faith in snp which I’ve voted for since Scottish independence vote, now I think it’s time to go back to my original party and hope they don’t bend over and take it up the arse like they did when they got the coalition.
i think that is where someone like jo swinson, if she becomes leader after cables goes after the euros will help, because she is far enough detacted from what happened in the coalition for them to wipe the slate clean and reboot...
i do think i would help the anti brexit centre ground if there could be some agreement reached between the lib dems and the TIGs.... that would almost be too sensible..."
The TIGs have ruled out any agreement with the Lib Dems. I'm sure they'll be pissed off by the results of the local elections. Their plan (according to a leaked memo) is firstly to hammer the final nail in the coffin of the Lib Dems, so they can offer themselves as the only centre right party. |
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By *imiUKMan
over a year ago
Newbury |
"Conservatives would be the biggest party still, but theyd lose enough to make forming a coalition impossible.
Most likely would be Labour/SNP/Lib Dem government.
Dear God no, that would be the start of the fall into a hard line right wing government in my opinion. Think Italy before Mussolini. "
If it's any consolation, prior to these elections, the GE polls have Labour hovering around a 5 point lead. The Tory vote does seem to be splitting BREXIT party and Lib Dem/Change |
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By *imiUKMan
over a year ago
Newbury |
"If you were to add a Green Party representative in any of the areas that only had Tory, labour and UKIP I bet lots of folk would have chose green because they didn’t want to vote for any of the others ! Me personally I’m hoping for a LibDem revival as I’ve lost all faith in snp which I’ve voted for since Scottish independence vote, now I think it’s time to go back to my original party and hope they don’t bend over and take it up the arse like they did when they got the coalition.
i think that is where someone like jo swinson, if she becomes leader after cables goes after the euros will help, because she is far enough detacted from what happened in the coalition for them to wipe the slate clean and reboot...
i do think i would help the anti brexit centre ground if there could be some agreement reached between the lib dems and the TIGs.... that would almost be too sensible...
The TIGs have ruled out any agreement with the Lib Dems. I'm sure they'll be pissed off by the results of the local elections. Their plan (according to a leaked memo) is firstly to hammer the final nail in the coffin of the Lib Dems, so they can offer themselves as the only centre right party."
Its here: https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/25/change-uk-leaked-memo-reveals-plot-wipe-replace-lib-dem-party-9318980/
Apologies for "Metro"... |
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"If you were to add a Green Party representative in any of the areas that only had Tory, labour and UKIP I bet lots of folk would have chose green because they didn’t want to vote for any of the others ! Me personally I’m hoping for a LibDem revival as I’ve lost all faith in snp which I’ve voted for since Scottish independence vote, now I think it’s time to go back to my original party and hope they don’t bend over and take it up the arse like they did when they got the coalition.
i think that is where someone like jo swinson, if she becomes leader after cables goes after the euros will help, because she is far enough detacted from what happened in the coalition for them to wipe the slate clean and reboot...
i do think i would help the anti brexit centre ground if there could be some agreement reached between the lib dems and the TIGs.... that would almost be too sensible...
The TIGs have ruled out any agreement with the Lib Dems. I'm sure they'll be pissed off by the results of the local elections. Their plan (according to a leaked memo) is firstly to hammer the final nail in the coffin of the Lib Dems, so they can offer themselves as the only centre right party.
Its here: https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/25/change-uk-leaked-memo-reveals-plot-wipe-replace-lib-dem-party-9318980/
Apologies for "Metro"..."
It hardly a great revelation that ChangeUK, a liberal centrist party, would be targeting LibDem voters who are basically liberal and centrist.
I other none news today, the sky is blue and air contains oxygen.
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By *imiUKMan
over a year ago
Newbury |
"If you were to add a Green Party representative in any of the areas that only had Tory, labour and UKIP I bet lots of folk would have chose green because they didn’t want to vote for any of the others ! Me personally I’m hoping for a LibDem revival as I’ve lost all faith in snp which I’ve voted for since Scottish independence vote, now I think it’s time to go back to my original party and hope they don’t bend over and take it up the arse like they did when they got the coalition.
i think that is where someone like jo swinson, if she becomes leader after cables goes after the euros will help, because she is far enough detacted from what happened in the coalition for them to wipe the slate clean and reboot...
i do think i would help the anti brexit centre ground if there could be some agreement reached between the lib dems and the TIGs.... that would almost be too sensible...
The TIGs have ruled out any agreement with the Lib Dems. I'm sure they'll be pissed off by the results of the local elections. Their plan (according to a leaked memo) is firstly to hammer the final nail in the coffin of the Lib Dems, so they can offer themselves as the only centre right party.
Its here: https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/25/change-uk-leaked-memo-reveals-plot-wipe-replace-lib-dem-party-9318980/
Apologies for "Metro"...
It hardly a great revelation that ChangeUK, a liberal centrist party, would be targeting LibDem voters who are basically liberal and centrist.
I other none news today, the sky is blue and air contains oxygen.
"
My point is, that a lot of people seem to think they are friendly towards the Lib Dems and might potentially form some sort of alliance, when their actual aim is to annihilate them and take their entire support base. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Three weeks later!!
The Euro results are in, brexit are the big big winners, lib dems in second, conservatives back in fifth place!
In a general election, are the conservatives in Canada territory, do they face a wipeout in the next general election!
I certainly hope so!
I have to say, in their defense, that there is nothing wrong with the Conservative party, and I agree with a lot of their policies, it’s just that they are full of fucking Tories! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Three weeks later!!
The Euro results are in, brexit are the big big winners, lib dems in second, conservatives back in fifth place!
In a general election, are the conservatives in Canada territory, do they face a wipeout in the next general election!
I certainly hope so!
I have to say, in their defense, that there is nothing wrong with the Conservative party, and I agree with a lot of their policies, it’s just that they are full of fucking Tories! "
If people have swing from tories to Brexit I can see many swinging back to prevent a Labour win in the GE (the joys of fptp)
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