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Lessons from Africa?
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"Many African countries don't keep accurate records of Covid deaths.
Neither do European countries  "
A few don't but pretty much all do record covid deaths properly. Not quite all the same but they use proper methods. Most African countries don't record general deaths with any sort of accuracy. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Younger population with less obesity
Next
A quick search
Average age in Europe = 43
Average age in Africa = 19
Not much to learn from that "
And average population density is much less 45 ppkm2 vs 117 ppkm2.
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The lessons from Africa are that we got the South African variant first and not it seems there is a new variant of concern, that of Botswana.
Unlike what some want us to believe, all the main variants came from unvaccinated or largely unvaccinated countries (the delta varriant from India when the vaccination rate was very low), now the Botswana variant (where vax rate is about 20%). Additionally the Kent variant, the Brazilian variant and the South African variant made their appearance before the vaccinations started. |
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We benefit from having compassion and empathy for others and few in the world are lucky. The poorer nations overall have very low vaccinatoon levels. Count your blessings that here in the UK you have had substantial benefits from the vaccines, as they've allowed society to reopen, you gained freedoms again etc.
Others have just fended for themselves, with the luck of the draw on infection levels, government responses and vaccine provision. Africa is immensely diverse, including health services, economies and lifestyles. Rest assured OPs attempt to connect low vaccinatoon rates with their proposition that lack of vaccines has helped those countries is unfounded. |
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By *exysuzi and Mr.SCouple
over a year ago
CONISTON .Stoke Suburbia. Staffs. BARMOUTH. The Lakes (Monthly) |
WHO are meeting tomorrow so let's see what they have to advice over this latest variant. They are naming it tomorrow too, so for those who say it's the Botswana variant....it isn't it forest have a name as yet |
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By *exysuzi and Mr.SCouple
over a year ago
CONISTON .Stoke Suburbia. Staffs. BARMOUTH. The Lakes (Monthly) |
"WHO are meeting tomorrow so let's see what they have to advice over this latest variant. They are naming it tomorrow too, so for those who say it's the Botswana variant....it isn't it forest have a name as yet"
*doesnt* not forest bloody typo |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"WHO are meeting tomorrow so let's see what they have to advice over this latest variant. They are naming it tomorrow too, so for those who say it's the Botswana variant....it isn't it forest have a name as yet"
Epsilon would be the logical one. |
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"https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-b-1-1-529-variant-worst-one-weve-seen-so-far-say-uk-experts-12478737
Flight bans from tomorrow.
 "
You'd hope 4th time we might get quarantine, testing and flight bans right. I'm guessing we won't dare ban flights from hong kong though. Not until we've let it seed over here. Worrying times. Isn't the timing very similar to last year's alpha variant too? |
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"As of last month there had been about 37,000 coronavirus deaths in Africa, compared to about 230,000 in the EU.
Vaccinations in Africa are way behind those elsewhere.
Thoughts?"
Thoughts are that in many parts of the continent of Africa there is precious little in the way of recording births and deaths, and even less of post-mortem medical examinations to correctly assign cause of death. The same situation occurs in India and many other parts of the world. Medical attention and death certification is something that only happens for the middle to well off section of society, for the majority of the poor there is nobody in authority that even cares what they die of.
Any figures from these countries are at best a guess, done by looking at a small sample of the population and multiplying up. When you factor in that most of their governments have a vested interest in minimising the reports of virus deaths, of course the published figures are going to be tiny. |
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"WHO are meeting tomorrow so let's see what they have to advice over this latest variant. They are naming it tomorrow too, so for those who say it's the Botswana variant....it isn't it forest have a name as yet
Epsilon would be the logical one. "
There have been a whole bunch of the greek letters used up since Delta, for variants that were identified to be of concern but didn't manage to outpace the Delta variant. Like how the Beta and Gamma variants came along after Alpha, but were either not quite as prolific as Alpha or got overtaken by Delta.
I believe that the naming is up to at least the letter Nu. Though this might be an unwise choice at least for English speaking countries because of the possible confusion between Nu variant and new variant. Like, okay it is a new variant now, but when the next one after comes along it would be the old variant but still the Nu variant...
I'm wondering how much panic might be caused at some time in the future when the Omega virus comes along... |
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By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago
Longridge |
The Developed world should have pulled their fingers from up their own backsides and funded/built vaccine factories locally to enable rapid roll out.
It's been said for a long time that not vaccinating Africa and other struggling countries, they would become petri dishes for variants.
I hope the smug short sighted, selfish idiots sat in Downing St, the Whitehouse and other nations capable of producing vaccine are proud of their behaviour that's probably put everything gained at risk.
Well Done.. they were warned. |
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By *exysuzi and Mr.SCouple
over a year ago
CONISTON .Stoke Suburbia. Staffs. BARMOUTH. The Lakes (Monthly) |
"WHO are meeting tomorrow so let's see what they have to advice over this latest variant. They are naming it tomorrow too, so for those who say it's the Botswana variant....it isn't it forest have a name as yet
Epsilon would be the logical one.
There have been a whole bunch of the greek letters used up since Delta, for variants that were identified to be of concern but didn't manage to outpace the Delta variant. Like how the Beta and Gamma variants came along after Alpha, but were either not quite as prolific as Alpha or got overtaken by Delta.
I believe that the naming is up to at least the letter Nu. Though this might be an unwise choice at least for English speaking countries because of the possible confusion between Nu variant and new variant. Like, okay it is a new variant now, but when the next one after comes along it would be the old variant but still the Nu variant...
I'm wondering how much panic might be caused at some time in the future when the Omega virus comes along..."
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By *exysuzi and Mr.SCouple
over a year ago
CONISTON .Stoke Suburbia. Staffs. BARMOUTH. The Lakes (Monthly) |
"WHO are meeting tomorrow so let's see what they have to advice over this latest variant. They are naming it tomorrow too, so for those who say it's the Botswana variant....it isn't it forest have a name as yet
Epsilon would be the logical one.
There have been a whole bunch of the greek letters used up since Delta, for variants that were identified to be of concern but didn't manage to outpace the Delta variant. Like how the Beta and Gamma variants came along after Alpha, but were either not quite as prolific as Alpha or got overtaken by Delta.
I believe that the naming is up to at least the letter Nu. Though this might be an unwise choice at least for English speaking countries because of the possible confusion between Nu variant and new variant. Like, okay it is a new variant now, but when the next one after comes along it would be the old variant but still the Nu variant...
I'm wondering how much panic might be caused at some time in the future when the Omega virus comes along...
"
I will be properly retired by then....and nope I'm not coming outta retirement for that one. This one has drained me |
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"WHO are meeting tomorrow so let's see what they have to advice over this latest variant. They are naming it tomorrow too, so for those who say it's the Botswana variant....it isn't it forest have a name as yet
Epsilon would be the logical one.
There have been a whole bunch of the greek letters used up since Delta, for variants that were identified to be of concern but didn't manage to outpace the Delta variant. Like how the Beta and Gamma variants came along after Alpha, but were either not quite as prolific as Alpha or got overtaken by Delta.
I believe that the naming is up to at least the letter Nu. Though this might be an unwise choice at least for English speaking countries because of the possible confusion between Nu variant and new variant. Like, okay it is a new variant now, but when the next one after comes along it would be the old variant but still the Nu variant...
I'm wondering how much panic might be caused at some time in the future when the Omega virus comes along...
I will be properly retired by then....and nope I'm not coming outta retirement for that one. This one has drained me "
Hoping that you do manage to get away from the ratrun soon, and do have a long and happy retirement together. I keep planning it myself but every consecutive government produced crisis, over that last too many years, has delayed it again and again  |
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"As of last month there had been about 37,000 coronavirus deaths in Africa, compared to about 230,000 in the EU.
Vaccinations in Africa are way behind those elsewhere.
Thoughts?"
Someone did warn last year to expect 5 of these virus/ variants to hit us every year.
Feel free to vaccinate but PPE and isolation are the best option.
Lockdown immenant. |
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How can labelling deaths as due to the virus be accurate when the numbers include people who die of any cause within 28 days of testing positive??
That is a ludicrous way of counting actual deaths due to the virus, particularly as the tests are not completely reliable. |
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By *I TwoCouple
over a year ago
all around |
"How can labelling deaths as due to the virus be accurate when the numbers include people who die of any cause within 28 days of testing positive??
That is a ludicrous way of counting actual deaths due to the virus, particularly as the tests are not completely reliable. "
There's a figure called excess deaths
I tried to find out how many people died of road accidents etc within 28 days of testing positive last year, it was a very small number of the thousand a day. |
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"Never found a straight answer to those dying outside 28 days and have been in ICU for weeks or other problems COVID has caused complications that led to death at day 29+
"
They used to publish the 56 day figure too but not seen it for a while. I think 28th day was picked so the small number of people that died after more than 28 days from covid balanced out with the small number of people who tested positive but died by getting hit by a bus. |
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"How can labelling deaths as due to the virus be accurate when the numbers include people who die of any cause within 28 days of testing positive??
That is a ludicrous way of counting actual deaths due to the virus, particularly as the tests are not completely reliable. "
Deaths aren't labelled as due to the virus at all. And haven't been for about 18 months. |
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"Never found a straight answer to those dying outside 28 days and have been in ICU for weeks or other problems COVID has caused complications that led to death at day 29+
They used to publish the 56 day figure too but not seen it for a while. I think 28th day was picked so the small number of people that died after more than 28 days from covid balanced out with the small number of people who tested positive but died by getting hit by a bus."
Agree. You'd think that those who decided on 28 days would have used a pool of data that the numpties don't have access to so they could agree a sensible number of days.
There is nothing wrong with questioning why 28 days but to discredit the decision using an example of people dying under a bus is ridiculous. |
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"Never found a straight answer to those dying outside 28 days and have been in ICU for weeks or other problems COVID has caused complications that led to death at day 29+
They used to publish the 56 day figure too but not seen it for a while. I think 28th day was picked so the small number of people that died after more than 28 days from covid balanced out with the small number of people who tested positive but died by getting hit by a bus."
The Office for National Statistics publishes data where Covid is the main cause of death, separately from where it is a contributory factor. This is all based on how the death certificate is completed and isn't related directly to when, if, a test was taken. Far more reliable and it provides a much greater level of understanding of the deaths. |
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"As of last month there had been about 37,000 coronavirus deaths in Africa, compared to about 230,000 in the EU.
Vaccinations in Africa are way behind those elsewhere.
Thoughts?"
not enough money to fund the testing to the same degree as European countries. More PCR tests, means more cases. They could have the biggest pandemic overnight if they had the same testing arrangements like the U.K. and Christmas would come early for the media who would report it as the end of the world for humanity. |
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"If more vaccines had been provided quicker to the likes of Africa there’s have been far less chance this new strain would be making an appearance."
Would it though? I know next to nothing about medical provision and culture in the continent of Africa. If they had been provided would they have been used? If they had been used, would it have stopped variants developing.? ... (We know only too well the vaccines don't stop infections.. I mean look at the evidence in our own little country with such high vax and now booster levels and yet infections are one of the highest anywhere.?) What would make you believe it would be any different anywhere else? The spread of Variants don't come from dead people they come from alive ones who spread them to others. Not sure we can assume very much about Africa. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"If more vaccines had been provided quicker to the likes of Africa there’s have been far less chance this new strain would be making an appearance.
Would it though? I know next to nothing about medical provision and culture in the continent of Africa. If they had been provided would they have been used? If they had been used, would it have stopped variants developing.? ... (We know only too well the vaccines don't stop infections.. I mean look at the evidence in our own little country with such high vax and now booster levels and yet infections are one of the highest anywhere.?) What would make you believe it would be any different anywhere else? The spread of Variants don't come from dead people they come from alive ones who spread them to others. Not sure we can assume very much about Africa. "
Yes. Scientific evidence which predicted this would happen if you don’t vaccinate everywhere. Backed up by it then happening where there’s less vaccinations. |
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