I know far less about French politics than UK and US politics but the French political spread is much wider than in the UK and US so it tends to be less stable. Same in Italy.
The centre seems to be the best option given the division but as there are so many who aren't in the centre it never work well so Bayrou only lasted nine months.
I think the left probably have a slight edge and so Bayrou (and Macron) being centre-right are up against a lot of opposition from the left. On the other hand they aren't anywhere near right-wing enough for Marine Le Pen's nutters so they too attack.
France will muddle through though. |
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"Just another entitled Western basket case living beyond its means.
The day of reckoning is coming for them all."
It seems clear that you hate Western and especially European civilization. Where do you consider to be exemplary? |
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"People's thoughts on the ongoing saga in french politics at the moment??"
It seems debt is a major factor here and disagreement on how to tackle it. I believe the French debt is even greater than the UK, by percentage to GDP at least |
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By (user no longer on site) 34 weeks ago
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"Just another entitled Western basket case living beyond its means.
The day of reckoning is coming for them all.
It seems clear that you hate Western and especially European civilization. Where do you consider to be exemplary?"
So now people who “state the bleedin’ obvious” about a country’s dire fiscal circumstances “hate Western civilisation”?
Would it be much better for the preservation of Western civilisation to stick our heads in the sand and deny reality?
Was it not you who were complaining just yesterday about US national debt? Do you also “hate Western civilisation”? |
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"It seems debt is a major factor here and disagreement on how to tackle it. I believe the French debt is even greater than the UK, by percentage to GDP at least"
Yeah, here are some interesting comparisons on debt to GDP...
China 88%
France 113%
Germany 63%
India 82%
Italy 135%
Japan 237%
Russia 16%
UK 96%
US 124% |
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"So now people who “state the bleedin’ obvious” about a country’s dire fiscal circumstances “hate Western civilisation”?
Would it be much better for the preservation of Western civilisation to stick our heads in the sand and deny reality?
Was it not you who were complaining just yesterday about US national debt? Do you also “hate Western civilisation”?"
If you don't hate Western and especially European civilization you do a good job of giving that impression in post after post.
Your "Just another entitled Western basket case living beyond its means. The day of reckoning is coming for them all." was just one in a long running series.
I pointed out that US debt to GDP is worse than the UK ratio. This is simply a fact. This isn't the same as saying some BS like the day of reckoning is coming.
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Somehow the French manage to make the last years of the Tories look like a text book example of governance.
Macron fucked up monstrously last year when he called the snap election. He has ended up with a National Assembly that has such a large number of deputies at either extreme end of the political spectrum that it is no wonder he is burning through Prime Ministers faster than we did.
I can’t see this changing until either Macron steps down (will his ego allow that?) or there is a huge financial crisis that focuses minds. If there is a financial crisis then it risks spreading over into Europe and that doesn’t bode well for the Euro or those southern European countries that failed in the last crisis and who haven’t really put their house in order. |
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By (user no longer on site) 34 weeks ago
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"It seems debt is a major factor here and disagreement on how to tackle it. I believe the French debt is even greater than the UK, by percentage to GDP at least
Yeah, here are some interesting comparisons on debt to GDP...
China 88%
France 113%
Germany 63%
India 82%
Italy 135%
Japan 237%
Russia 16%
UK 96%
US 124%"
OMG you are just spreading Russian propaganda.
Hater! Always trash talking the West!
|
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"It seems debt is a major factor here and disagreement on how to tackle it. I believe the French debt is even greater than the UK, by percentage to GDP at least
Yeah, here are some interesting comparisons on debt to GDP...
China 88%
France 113%
Germany 63%
India 82%
Italy 135%
Japan 237%
Russia 16%
UK 96%
US 124%"
Good to see the figures of France and the UK confirming my thoughts. Some eye watering figures for a few others too I see |
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By (user no longer on site) 34 weeks ago
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The underlying problem is obvious. France, like the UK, is living beyond it's means. But as we've seen here, once state benefits are granted, they are hard to reverse (remember the Tory's austerity campaign?). Left wingers in France (and here) will resist any reduction in benefits. If social benefits can't be reduced by political consensus, a 'Thatcher' figure will emerge to administer the nasty medicine- Le Pen in France and Farage in UK. |
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"The underlying problem is obvious. France, like the UK, is living beyond it's means. But as we've seen here, once state benefits are granted, they are hard to reverse (remember the Tory's austerity campaign?). Left wingers in France (and here) will resist any reduction in benefits. If social benefits can't be reduced by political consensus, a 'Thatcher' figure will emerge to administer the nasty medicine- Le Pen in France and Farage in UK."
Debt is indeed a problem but as long as it's servicable it's not going to collapse a government.
It's not just the left in France (or the UK) who will resisit reduction in benefits. Witness the right here complaining about the change to WFA.
Both Le Pen and Farage are campaigning against immigration and multiculturalism rather than for reducing things like state pensions. They are both supporters of Putin too, so that will put the brakes on their success amongst voters who don't like Putin.
The key difference between Le Pen and Farage is that she supports state interventionism while Farage wants to dismantle the state.
I think Macron is about as close to Thatcher economically as France is likely to see.
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Mind you Farage did recently say he wants the state pension age to rise faster than planned by Labour or the Tories. But I don't expect this to be in the Reform _anifesto as it would probably destroy any chance of them winning the next GE.
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By (user no longer on site) 34 weeks ago
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Fascinating that Bayrou was highlighting the UK as an example of what happens when spending gets out of control and taxes go too high: wealth creators and entrepreneurs flee the country.
What a state of affairs that indolent, workshy, statist France now points the finger at the UK as an example of how bad things can get! |
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Minsk is supposed to be lovely, ever consider morning there for progressive democracy?
"Just another entitled Western basket case living beyond its means.
The day of reckoning is coming for them all."
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It's pretty clear that be it UK, France, Germany, Canada, USA, etc... most people are not happy with their government's. Hell the last UK general election was the lowest voter turnout since all men got the vote after WW1. |
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"It's pretty clear that be it UK, France, Germany, Canada, USA, etc... most people are not happy with their government's. Hell the last UK general election was the lowest voter turnout since all men got the vote after WW1."
The end game of what Thatcher & Reagan started four & a half decades ago. All the money going to the top whilst the rest fight over the scraps. |
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By (user no longer on site) 30 weeks ago
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Same story as in the UK.
Too many people suckling at the State’s teat.
It can’t go on but too many people have a vested interest in staying on the government payroll. So they won’t vote for anything else.
The only thing that’s going to wake Europe from its benefits-induced coma is economic meltdown.
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"Same story as in the UK.
Too many people suckling at the State’s teat.
It can’t go on but too many people have a vested interest in staying on the government payroll. So they won’t vote for anything else.
The only thing that’s going to wake Europe from its benefits-induced coma is economic meltdown.
"
That economic meltdown may come sooner than many people think.
The predictions of a huge crash in the markets are getting louder by the day. Record highs can't go on forever.
While it is semi detached from government spending it will still have consequences. Higher unemployment (more benefits) lower tax yields (more borrowing) and if it forces a run on the pound then higher interest rates (Government borrowing more expensive)
Britain and the rest of Europe really is staring into the abyss of an economic death spiral. It won't be pretty.
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"Same story as in the UK.
Too many people suckling at the State’s teat.
It can’t go on but too many people have a vested interest in staying on the government payroll. So they won’t vote for anything else.
The only thing that’s going to wake Europe from its benefits-induced coma is economic meltdown.
That economic meltdown may come sooner than many people think.
The predictions of a huge crash in the markets are getting louder by the day. Record highs can't go on forever.
While it is semi detached from government spending it will still have consequences. Higher unemployment (more benefits) lower tax yields (more borrowing) and if it forces a run on the pound then higher interest rates (Government borrowing more expensive)
Britain and the rest of Europe really is staring into the abyss of an economic death spiral. It won't be pretty.
"
The record highs in the stock market have nothing to do with Europe. They are overwhelmingly being driven higher by the AI boom in the US.
If you want to point out why Europe is a basket case you would be better questioning why Europe is completely out of this AI race.
The future is always being commercialised elsewhere. Never in Europe or the UK. That is the thing that people over here need to be really worrying about.
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"Same story as in the UK.
Too many people suckling at the State’s teat.
It can’t go on but too many people have a vested interest in staying on the government payroll. So they won’t vote for anything else.
The only thing that’s going to wake Europe from its benefits-induced coma is economic meltdown.
That economic meltdown may come sooner than many people think.
The predictions of a huge crash in the markets are getting louder by the day. Record highs can't go on forever.
While it is semi detached from government spending it will still have consequences. Higher unemployment (more benefits) lower tax yields (more borrowing) and if it forces a run on the pound then higher interest rates (Government borrowing more expensive)
Britain and the rest of Europe really is staring into the abyss of an economic death spiral. It won't be pretty.
The record highs in the stock market have nothing to do with Europe. They are overwhelmingly being driven higher by the AI boom in the US.
If you want to point out why Europe is a basket case you would be better questioning why Europe is completely out of this AI race.
The future is always being commercialised elsewhere. Never in Europe or the UK. That is the thing that people over here need to be really worrying about.
"
As always. Asia and the US innovate and Europe regulates. That is one of the main reasons the EU will always be playing catch up.
To be fair you are right to say that the markets are being driven by tech and AI and mostly from the US. However it still has everything to do with Europe.
The FTSE is at an all time high as are other European markets. If Wall St crashes the whole lot will come down with it.
Remember the old saying. If America sneezes Britain catches a cold.
Just ask Gordon Brown.  |
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My feeling is that AI is grossly oversold.
The situation is similar to the dot com bubble of the late 90's.
When it bursts it won't be the end of the world but I would be very cautious about investing too much in AI. |
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"My feeling is that AI is grossly oversold.
The situation is similar to the dot com bubble of the late 90's.
When it bursts it won't be the end of the world but I would be very cautious about investing too much in AI."
Fair comment.
However the big question is, how much are the banks exposed to this bubble.
If they are in too deep then it could be "the end of the world". Or at least a repeat of 2008. |
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By (user no longer on site) 29 weeks ago
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"My feeling is that AI is grossly oversold.
The situation is similar to the dot com bubble of the late 90's.
When it bursts it won't be the end of the world but I would be very cautious about investing too much in AI."
Even big names in the field have said as much.
Pat Gelsinger (former Intel CEO), Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO), Jeff Bezos (Amazon founder), Bret Taylor (Chairman of OpenAI’s Board), and Harris Kupperman (investor and fund manager).
A couple of them have even implied the bubble is close to popping |
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"Fair comment.
However the big question is, how much are the banks exposed to this bubble.
If they are in too deep then it could be "the end of the world". Or at least a repeat of 2008."
If you've ever tried to raise venture capital in the UK you'd know that the banks are very very risk averse.
When the bubble bursts it will mostly affect private investment in the US. That will obviously have a knock on effect on the UK but I don't see it being as bad as 2008.
I suspect we are still 12 to 18 months away from people realising that AI is mostly a marketing term so there could be some good money to be made before the market correction. |
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"My feeling is that AI is grossly oversold.
The situation is similar to the dot com bubble of the late 90's.
When it bursts it won't be the end of the world but I would be very cautious about investing too much in AI."
It is completely oversold but that isn’t really the point. We have no dog in the game. The UK actually has a very good track record of inventing this stuff but we manifestly fail to commercialise it. Europe struggles to even invent it.
There will almost certainly be a crash but whatever comes out of the other side won’t be making money for us. |
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By *I TwoCouple 29 weeks ago
near enough |
A stock market crash
Hmmm
When has the stock market crashed and not recovered to an even higher level ?
Investing isn't for the faint hearted or those that can't leave the money invested for a reasonable time. |
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"A stock market crash
Hmmm
When has the stock market crashed and not recovered to an even higher level ?
Investing isn't for the faint hearted or those that can't leave the money invested for a reasonable time.
And a temporary crash is an investors dream, buy buy buy"
For small private investors there's maybe a bit of truth in that. But even there it's a case of how long it takes to bounce (or slowly crawl) back.
Yes, markets are at record highs now but the last big crash was in 2008. That's 17 years ago. I probably haven't got 17 years left.
For larger investors, pension funds Etc. Stability is very important. Big crashes wipe the value of funds with consequences for the value of pension pots and annuity rates. Try telling the guy retiring just after the crash that his pension is going to be halved because of it.
Sorry mate, you'll have to work a few more years while your pot builds up again. 
Then there are the effects on government (taxation) Rachel is already free falling into a black hole of her own making and any reduction in the tax take from the financial sector (the sector that produces around a quarter of all tax revenue) would be disastrous.
Thinking that a crash only means a few grannies will have to wait a year or two is seriously deluded.
I cashed out of most of my shares recently and at my age certainly won't be looking to "buy buy buy".
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By *otMe66Man 29 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"My feeling is that AI is grossly oversold.
The situation is similar to the dot com bubble of the late 90's.
When it bursts it won't be the end of the world but I would be very cautious about investing too much in AI.
It is completely oversold but that isn’t really the point. We have no dog in the game. The UK actually has a very good track record of inventing this stuff but we manifestly fail to commercialise it. Europe struggles to even invent it.
There will almost certainly be a crash but whatever comes out of the other side won’t be making money for us."
There is still huge scope for consumer AI ventures through many applications. The current bubble of AI consumer subscriptions, I can see that coming to an end very soon, but I think it will be replaced by ad revenue applications driven by AI tools. The consumer is already very comfortable with trusting AI output, some will say they don't trust AI but it is clear from usage and subscription models that more do than don't.
Big players such as Amazon and Google are going to come under threat from disrupters, sooner rather than later. |
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"
The record highs in the stock market have nothing to do with Europe. They are overwhelmingly being driven higher by the AI boom in the US.
If you want to point out why Europe is a basket case you would be better questioning why Europe is completely out of this AI race.
The future is always being commercialised elsewhere. Never in Europe or the UK. That is the thing that people over here need to be really worrying about.
As always. Asia and the US innovate and Europe regulates. That is one of the main reasons the EU will always be playing catch up.
"
They already passed the AI act, even before even knowing how AI is going to evolve. As you say, the EU will fall behind in AI progress and then try to fine the American companies to make up for it. It's only a matter of time before the American companies stop giving a fuck about EU. |
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By *hirleyMan 29 weeks ago
Wine bar |
"It's pretty clear that be it UK, France, Germany, Canada, USA, etc... most people are not happy with their government's. Hell the last UK general election was the lowest voter turnout since all men got the vote after WW1.
The end game of what Thatcher & Reagan started four & a half decades ago. All the money going to the top whilst the rest fight over the scraps."
Literally every western economy is suffering from the same thing, billionaires!
Although I think the cracks are showing tbh. Funnily enough, many developed nations were in similar economic "disaster" right before ww events. |
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By *otMe66Man 29 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"
Big players such as Amazon and Google are going to come under threat from disrupters, sooner rather than later.
Curious, why do you think Amazon/Google will be disrupted? "
Take any sector, retail, travel etc. Google has held dominance in pushing the product towards the consumer based on ad revenue. Going forward there will be a pivot of AI tools that are the actual inverse of the Google model, suggesting based on your likes, habits, locations. Example, a new pair of your favourite jeans are available in Next, and as you will be shopping in Sainsburys on Saturday you could drop by, would you like me to have a pair put to one side for you? The personalisation of AI will create trust and drive premium ad revenue for singular not multi options in £££ rated offering.
Amazon, is dominant in supply but will also fall into more nuanced choice selections that can will people away with more personalised options, moving away from the Amazon model of everything in one place.
AI tooling is working around the edges at the moment but I know there are services that are positioning to become disrupters. |
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"
Big players such as Amazon and Google are going to come under threat from disrupters, sooner rather than later.
Curious, why do you think Amazon/Google will be disrupted?
Take any sector, retail, travel etc. Google has held dominance in pushing the product towards the consumer based on ad revenue. Going forward there will be a pivot of AI tools that are the actual inverse of the Google model, suggesting based on your likes, habits, locations. Example, a new pair of your favourite jeans are available in Next, and as you will be shopping in Sainsburys on Saturday you could drop by, would you like me to have a pair put to one side for you? The personalisation of AI will create trust and drive premium ad revenue for singular not multi options in £££ rated offering.
Amazon, is dominant in supply but will also fall into more nuanced choice selections that can will people away with more personalised options, moving away from the Amazon model of everything in one place.
AI tooling is working around the edges at the moment but I know there are services that are positioning to become disrupters."
I see your point. Google has already started integrating Gemini into Android and all their search pages. Sure there is a risk as you said but I think they are well positioned to adapt to the situation.
Amazon I agree. Maybe they could pivot to being a logistics partner for other websites considering all the warehouse and deliver systems they have built. |
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By *otMe66Man 29 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"
Big players such as Amazon and Google are going to come under threat from disrupters, sooner rather than later.
Curious, why do you think Amazon/Google will be disrupted?
Take any sector, retail, travel etc. Google has held dominance in pushing the product towards the consumer based on ad revenue. Going forward there will be a pivot of AI tools that are the actual inverse of the Google model, suggesting based on your likes, habits, locations. Example, a new pair of your favourite jeans are available in Next, and as you will be shopping in Sainsburys on Saturday you could drop by, would you like me to have a pair put to one side for you? The personalisation of AI will create trust and drive premium ad revenue for singular not multi options in £££ rated offering.
Amazon, is dominant in supply but will also fall into more nuanced choice selections that can will people away with more personalised options, moving away from the Amazon model of everything in one place.
AI tooling is working around the edges at the moment but I know there are services that are positioning to become disrupters.
I see your point. Google has already started integrating Gemini into Android and all their search pages. Sure there is a risk as you said but I think they are well positioned to adapt to the situation.
Amazon I agree. Maybe they could pivot to being a logistics partner for other websites considering all the warehouse and deliver systems they have built."
One issue, Google are simply not trusted. They need to protect their model as it is the most successful presently, however if they invert their model they attack their core.
I'm sure Google will be seen as the beta layer in the future.
Going forward zero click will disrupt, it already is, and it is totally incompatible with the high volume auction based models that Amazon and Google have developed.
Google will more than likely try and buy out competitors, however each acquisition will dilute the Google offering as we know it today. The outcome wouldn't be favourable to investors is my thoughts, when more trusted players are emerging.
As for Amazon, they are asset heavy in terms of warehousing and distribution. That again will pivot to the inverse, the reason Amazon need such facilities is the large model they have today requires local centralisation. Once the tech is in place, such large warehousing wont be needed to store items, they can be transported from source directly and cheaply. That breaks the all in one place model. |
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"It seems debt is a major factor here and disagreement on how to tackle it. I believe the French debt is even greater than the UK, by percentage to GDP at least
Yeah, here are some interesting comparisons on debt to GDP...
China 88%
France 113%
Germany 63%
India 82%
Italy 135%
Japan 237%
Russia 16%
UK 96%
US 124%"
He's off again...Fabs'very own Mr Wiki-Google search can't resist. |
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"
Big players such as Amazon and Google are going to come under threat from disrupters, sooner rather than later.
Curious, why do you think Amazon/Google will be disrupted?
Take any sector, retail, travel etc. Google has held dominance in pushing the product towards the consumer based on ad revenue. Going forward there will be a pivot of AI tools that are the actual inverse of the Google model, suggesting based on your likes, habits, locations. Example, a new pair of your favourite jeans are available in Next, and as you will be shopping in Sainsburys on Saturday you could drop by, would you like me to have a pair put to one side for you? The personalisation of AI will create trust and drive premium ad revenue for singular not multi options in £££ rated offering.
Amazon, is dominant in supply but will also fall into more nuanced choice selections that can will people away with more personalised options, moving away from the Amazon model of everything in one place.
AI tooling is working around the edges at the moment but I know there are services that are positioning to become disrupters.
I see your point. Google has already started integrating Gemini into Android and all their search pages. Sure there is a risk as you said but I think they are well positioned to adapt to the situation.
Amazon I agree. Maybe they could pivot to being a logistics partner for other websites considering all the warehouse and deliver systems they have built.
One issue, Google are simply not trusted. They need to protect their model as it is the most successful presently, however if they invert their model they attack their core.
I'm sure Google will be seen as the beta layer in the future.
Going forward zero click will disrupt, it already is, and it is totally incompatible with the high volume auction based models that Amazon and Google have developed.
Google will more than likely try and buy out competitors, however each acquisition will dilute the Google offering as we know it today. The outcome wouldn't be favourable to investors is my thoughts, when more trusted players are emerging.
As for Amazon, they are asset heavy in terms of warehousing and distribution. That again will pivot to the inverse, the reason Amazon need such facilities is the large model they have today requires local centralisation. Once the tech is in place, such large warehousing wont be needed to store items, they can be transported from source directly and cheaply. That breaks the all in one place model."
Makes sense, Mrs x |
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