 |
By (user no longer on site) OP 34 weeks ago
|
Report from FT 8 July 2024:
“In her first major speech since taking office, Reeves will say that boosting growth is “a national mission”.”
July 2025 UK growth: 0%. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *otMe66Man 34 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
We need to take a positive from this, it isn't minus figures yet.
Minouche Shafik is now onboard, paid for by the tax payer as a chief economic advisor to Starmer, which doesn't send a clear message of support and trust for Reeves. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"We need to take a positive from this, it isn't minus figures yet.
Minouche Shafik is now onboard, paid for by the tax payer as a chief economic advisor to Starmer, which doesn't send a clear message of support and trust for Reeves."
More businesses closing than opening
Increased unemployment
Business sentiment and business investment down.
Borrowing up, slow interest rate reductions |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
AI to the rescue
Or
Not
The number of people who will lose jobs due to AI varies depending on several factors, including government intervention and the pace of AI adoption. Here are some possible scenarios ¹ ²:
- *Worst-case scenario*: Up to 8 million UK jobs could be at risk, with 7.9 million job losses and no GDP gains, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).
- *Tony Blair Institute's estimate*: Between 1 million and 3 million jobs could be displaced by AI by 2050, with a peak impact of 60,000 to 275,000 job losses per year.
- *Job displacement by sector*:
- *Administration*: High risk, with potential job losses in secretarial, customer service, and administrative roles.
- *Customer service*: 20% of jobs at risk, with AI chatbots and virtual assistants replacing routine interactions.
- *Retail*: Over 28,000 jobs eliminated due to automation in back-end operations.
- *Banking*: 32% reduction in credit analyst positions due to AI tools for underwriting.
- *Demographic impact*:
- *Women*: More likely to be affected, especially in clerical and administrative roles, with 61% of AI-displaced roles held by women in 2024.
- *Young people*: At high risk, with entry-level support roles disappearing at a rate of 19% annually.
- *Older workers*: Face challenges in retraining, with only 12% enrolled in AI-transition upskilling programs.
While these numbers are concerning, some experts believe that AI could also create new job opportunities and boost economic growth. The actual outcome will depend on how well the UK adapts to AI and implements policies to mitigate job displacement ¹ ². |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *I TwoCouple 34 weeks ago
near enough |
"Report from FT 8 July 2024:
“In her first major speech since taking office, Reeves will say that boosting growth is “a national mission”.”
July 2025 UK growth: 0%."
A lot of the blame lies with trump going nuclear on the world economy.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
If you look up the ONS datatset Gross Domestic Product: Quarter on Quarter growth: CVM SA % you'll see that there's nothing particularly unusual happening with UK growth.
There was a huge oscillation around covid but otherwise things now are similar to how they've been for at least the past quarter of a century. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
Our growth is fundamentally impacted by productivity. Our productivity growth has flatlined since the financial crisis of 2008. It wasnt brilliant beforehand. Bluntly, it is nothing short of abysmal.
The reality is that this is something that governments can’t meaningfully impact. At the end of the day it is down to us - the public.
It’s a pretty hard sell for a government, of any stripe, to tell people they need to fundamentally change the way they work because they are the ones that impact productivity. People don’t want to hear it. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *abioMan 34 weeks ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"Report from FT 8 July 2024:
“In her first major speech since taking office, Reeves will say that boosting growth is “a national mission”.”
July 2025 UK growth: 0%.
A lot of the blame lies with trump going nuclear on the world economy.
"
This……..
I love it when people just look at just the headline and not behind the numbers
The interesting thing is when you look at it by the sectors, the uk is a service based economy….. services aren’t doing too badly…. It’s the manufacturing sector that is struggling badly… and part of that can be put down to tariffs… the chemicals sector breaking it down further has gone thru the floor |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Our growth is fundamentally impacted by productivity. Our productivity growth has flatlined since the financial crisis of 2008. It wasnt brilliant beforehand. Bluntly, it is nothing short of abysmal.
The reality is that this is something that governments can’t meaningfully impact. At the end of the day it is down to us - the public.
It’s a pretty hard sell for a government, of any stripe, to tell people they need to fundamentally change the way they work because they are the ones that impact productivity. People don’t want to hear it."
Yes, UK productivity is pretty poor. According to an AI summary...
"French workers are more productive than UK workers, measured by output per hour, often cited as being around 17-18% more productive. This higher productivity in France, despite significantly fewer workers per capita and lower overall employment rates than the UK, is attributed to factors including a greater emphasis on work-life balance, more generous retirement ages, and higher investment in capital and skills. "
My theory is that a lot of it is down to a management culture in the UK which seems to be based on the Victorian principle of squeezing the most you can out of your staff. The result is that many people feel exploited and therefore devise cunning ways to do as little as possible in return.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"
"French workers are more productive than UK workers, measured by output per hour, often cited as being around 17-18% more productive. This higher productivity in France, despite significantly fewer workers per capita and lower overall employment rates than the UK, is attributed to factors including a greater emphasis on work-life balance, more generous retirement ages, and higher investment in capital and skills. "
My theory is that a lot of it is down to a management culture in the UK which seems to be based on the Victorian principle of squeezing the most you can out of your staff. The result is that many people feel exploited and therefore devise cunning ways to do as little as possible in return.
"
Can you tell me exactly what prompt you asked AI? The thing about work life balance doesn't make any sense because US has much worse work life balance and yet has higher productivity per hour worked. The problem with UK is lack of automation in many sectors. I read a report recently on developed countries being ranked on how much work is automated and UK's position was abysmal |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
If you search for Robot density ranking by countries, UK is lagging behind massively. For comparison, the robot density in EU is 208 units per 10,000 employees, and the worldwide average is 151 units per 10,000 employees, while UK's robot density is 112 units per 10,000 employees.
Countries like South Korea and Japan are at the top because they have an ageing population problem and aren't willing to allow massive immigration. So they invested a lot in automation. It looks like UK did the opposite. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
Also if you look up ONS International comparisons of UK productivity (ICP), final estimates: 2020 you'll see some real non-AI data.
It's five years old but nothing major has changed in that time.
Yes, the US has good productivity data too but working conditions in the US are terrible compared with France. I know which I'd prefer.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Also if you look up ONS International comparisons of UK productivity (ICP), final estimates: 2020 you'll see some real non-AI data.
It's five years old but nothing major has changed in that time.
Yes, the US has good productivity data too but working conditions in the US are terrible compared with France. I know which I'd prefer.
"
France has higher productivity per hour worked but lower GDP per capita compared to UK. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Report from FT 8 July 2024:
“In her first major speech since taking office, Reeves will say that boosting growth is “a national mission”.”
July 2025 UK growth: 0%."
It's true that lowish growth has been a factor for years though has been consistent. Problem labour has is it spent many years criticising the former government for lowish growth and saying they were the answer. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
» Add a new message to this topic
