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Inflation 3.8%
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UK inflation is the highest rate in the G7
USA 2.9%
The eurozone 2.1%
Canada 1.4%
Poland 2.7%
Spain 2.7%
Italy 1.6%
Germany 2.1%
France estimated at 0.8%
In the face of falling inflation the FED has reduced USA interest rates, while the UK rate is likely to be held today.
Uk inflation and slower interest rate falls contributing to decreasing business confidence, with potential impacts on business investment and hiring.
What is uk doing wrong ? |
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"What is uk doing wrong ?"
Increasing taxes on business.
Increasing the cost of doing business, too many petty rules from the past. The new employment rights bill is the final straw.
Increasing public sector wages above inflation drove inflation up.
Fanatical drive to “net zero”.
Historical closures of nuclear power and the stupidity of the “dash for gas”. Combined with net zero this means our power is some of the most expensive in the world.
Too much state spending. Building up debt which costs over £100bn a year in interest. Much of this spending is due to inefficiency in public services and the NHS. Way too much is due to the bloated and unsustainable welfare budget.
I could go on, there would have been a much shorter answer if the question was “what is the uk doing right”. |
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By (user no longer on site) 33 weeks ago
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No great surprises. The Labour government is entirely made up of people with zero real world experience. Their ideology tells them that business is a force for evil and that the only thing it is good for is to skim more cash off to fund their pet projects. Same goes for any form of private wealth or achievement.
What they really do care about however is power and their own jobs. Just a matter of time before Starmer gets dumped. Probably when Labour gets booted out in Wales next year if he lasts that long.
The best the rest of us can hope for is another four years of mild incompetence and inaction, and that things don’t get materially worse than they already are before the public can get rid of them. Hopefully in that timescale we won’t start to see runaway inflation, energy blackouts, IMF bailouts etc but who knows. |
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By (user no longer on site) 33 weeks ago
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What is the UK doing wrong?
What most are doing wrong, pandering to the rich, not taxing the rich, scared of the rich and allowing the rich to buy up our assets to rent them back to us.
But its the migrants fault for coming here in small boats, but just a thought do you think that those migrants or some of them are fleeing from the grip on free speech, the fear of being locked up for a social media post, fleeing war etc, in there countries? |
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"What is the UK doing wrong?
What most are doing wrong, pandering to the rich, not taxing the rich, scared of the rich and allowing the rich to buy up our assets to rent them back to us.
But its the migrants fault for coming here in small boats, but just a thought do you think that those migrants or some of them are fleeing from the grip on free speech, the fear of being locked up for a social media post, fleeing war etc, in there countries?"
How does that help inflation?  |
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"Have a look at food inflation. That is only going in one direction."
37% uk farms closed since 1973 (defra)
Half our food imported laden with sugar and preservatives contributing to obesity
Farmers receive 8% of all food sold in uk (Soil 2025)
Farmers hit with 20% iht on break even business models
Annual uk fruit and vegetables retail spend £2.25bn (confectionary £4.7bn)
Junk food spend £56bn ( 20 times that of fruit and vegetables). |
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Let’s not pretend this is the fault of any one government but things like the NHS ,very generous benefits & public sector spend all the money.
Look at the state of the people - whether that’s in A&E on a Saturday night or queuing up at Greggs on benefits day , these idiots cost a lot to maintain. |
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A Third of Food Inflation: The LSE's Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) found that Brexit accounts for about one-third of UK food price inflation since 2019.
Billions in Extra Costs: The total cost of these trade barriers on food imports from the EU was estimated at £7 billion between December 2019 and March 2023.
Impact on Prices: Studies show a noticeable relative increase in prices for goods more exposed to EU imports after Brexit, continuing into recent years.
….Yay, another Brexit win! |
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The near constant "WE ARE ALL DOOMED!" messaging is getting a bit tiresome.
Certainly the UK economy is in poor shape but it's not the end of the world.
People need a bit of perspective.
UK CPI is now 3.8%.
It was 11.1% in Oct 2022.
It was 5.2% in Sept 2011.
It was 5.2% in Sept 2008.
It was 8.4% in Apr 1991.
OK, so you supermarket bills keep going up. Tesco made £2.76 billion profit last year and for just the first six months of this accounting period £1.56 billion profit. You might be feeling poor but they aren't. |
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"The near constant "WE ARE ALL DOOMED!" messaging is getting a bit tiresome.
Certainly the UK economy is in poor shape but it's not the end of the world.
People need a bit of perspective.
UK CPI is now 3.8%.
It was 11.1% in Oct 2022.
It was 5.2% in Sept 2011.
It was 5.2% in Sept 2008.
It was 8.4% in Apr 1991.
OK, so you supermarket bills keep going up. Tesco made £2.76 billion profit last year and for just the first six months of this accounting period £1.56 billion profit. You might be feeling poor but they aren't."
Tesco is a poor example - arguably they have done the most to keep food inflation down (at the expense of producers), and their profit is modest, considering their size. |
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"The near constant "WE ARE ALL DOOMED!" messaging is getting a bit tiresome.
Certainly the UK economy is in poor shape but it's not the end of the world.
People need a bit of perspective.
UK CPI is now 3.8%.
It was 11.1% in Oct 2022.
It was 5.2% in Sept 2011.
It was 5.2% in Sept 2008.
It was 8.4% in Apr 1991.
OK, so you supermarket bills keep going up. Tesco made £2.76 billion profit last year and for just the first six months of this accounting period £1.56 billion profit. You might be feeling poor but they aren't."
Also... Cherry-picking high rates from the past few decades isn't really indicative of very much. One could arguably cherry pick the lowest four.
That said, you're right that it's not all doom and gloom. |
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"A Third of Food Inflation: The LSE's Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) found that Brexit accounts for about one-third of UK food price inflation since 2019.
Billions in Extra Costs: The total cost of these trade barriers on food imports from the EU was estimated at £7 billion between December 2019 and March 2023.
Impact on Prices: Studies show a noticeable relative increase in prices for goods more exposed to EU imports after Brexit, continuing into recent years.
….Yay, another Brexit win!"
But, but passports.. 
One will soon be condemned as an anti Brexit heretic by the usual suspects who between them continue to search for the sunny uplands and any actual benefits of the oven ready (pile of cold dog sick) deal.. |
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By (user no longer on site) 33 weeks ago
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"The near constant "WE ARE ALL DOOMED!" messaging is getting a bit tiresome.
Certainly the UK economy is in poor shape but it's not the end of the world.
People need a bit of perspective.
UK CPI is now 3.8%.
It was 11.1% in Oct 2022.
It was 5.2% in Sept 2011.
It was 5.2% in Sept 2008.
It was 8.4% in Apr 1991.
OK, so you supermarket bills keep going up. Tesco made £2.76 billion profit last year and for just the first six months of this accounting period £1.56 billion profit. You might be feeling poor but they aren't."
MPC summary (admittedly they are often wrong):
“Core consumer goods price inflation had been 1.6% in August, with an increase in food price inflation to 5.1%. Intelligence from the Banks’ Agents pointed to higher global and domestic commodity prices as having accounted for much of the increase over the past year, with higher wholesale prices for beef, cocoa beans and coffee in particular. Labour costs and costs associated with new packaging regulation had also accounted for some of the increase in food prices”.
No mention of Tesco profits.
Tiresome!
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"Also... Cherry-picking high rates from the past few decades isn't really indicative of very much. One could arguably cherry pick the lowest four."
Yes, the defendent was found to be doing 73 mph for a brief period in a 30 mph zone but on average he was only doing 26 mph and at one point the vehicle came to a complete halt.
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"No mention of Tesco profits.
Tiresome!"
Like the MPC are going to mention Tesco.
If the economy is tanking and business costs are rising then wouldn't we expect company profits to be decreasing rather than increasing?
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"Also... Cherry-picking high rates from the past few decades isn't really indicative of very much. One could arguably cherry pick the lowest four.
Yes, the defendent was found to be doing 73 mph for a brief period in a 30 mph zone but on average he was only doing 26 mph and at one point the vehicle came to a complete halt.
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Exactly...? Those high years point to big issues at the time, so people should be concerned now? |
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"Exactly...? Those high years point to big issues at the time, so people should be concerned now?"
But not as concerned as people should have been in 2022, 2011, 2008 and 1991 because things were considerable worse then.
My point is that when you step back a little, the current situation isn't particulaly unusual nor particularly bad and the contemporary near constant state of panic amongst some on the right is a bit naive or just plain disingenuous.
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"Increased tax on businesses. My local and popular cafe is closing because of this. I am sure there are other examples. Net Zero obsession contributes to huge amount of cost."
The increase in employer NI contributions from 13.8% to 15% shouldn't be sufficient to close down your local cafe.
Besides although the Secondary Threshold was reduced the Employment Allowance was increased in order to protect small businesses from this change so if the cafe has employer NI contribution liabilities of less that £100,000 a year I doubt that's why they are closing down.
Also how much more do net zero plans contribute to the cafe's running costs? |
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"Exactly...? Those high years point to big issues at the time, so people should be concerned now?
But not as concerned as people should have been in 2022, 2011, 2008 and 1991 because things were considerable worse then.
My point is that when you step back a little, the current situation isn't particulaly unusual nor particularly bad and the contemporary near constant state of panic amongst some on the right is a bit naive or just plain disingenuous.
"
Ah. So we should focus on the average speed, not the over-the-limit times.
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"Ah. So we should focus on the average speed, not the over-the-limit times."
No. what I'm saying is pretty easy to understand. We should look at reality - the entire picture over a period of time including all the detailed ups and downs.
3.8% CPI is well above the 2% BofE target but it's not disastrous. Just like the 11.1% inflation we had three years ago, it won't sink the UK beneath the waves.
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By (user no longer on site) 33 weeks ago
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"Ah. So we should focus on the average speed, not the over-the-limit times.
No. what I'm saying is pretty easy to understand. We should look at reality - the entire picture over a period of time including all the detailed ups and downs.
3.8% CPI is well above the 2% BofE target but it's not disastrous. Just like the 11.1% inflation we had three years ago, it won't sink the UK beneath the waves.
"
Inflation in Venezuela is 172%.
Britain has never had it so good! Crisis, what crisis? |
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"Ah. So we should focus on the average speed, not the over-the-limit times.
No. what I'm saying is pretty easy to understand. We should look at reality - the entire picture over a period of time including all the detailed ups and downs.
3.8% CPI is well above the 2% BofE target but it's not disastrous. Just like the 11.1% inflation we had three years ago, it won't sink the UK beneath the waves.
"
Agree with your sentiment and conclusion. Just pointing that your previous example argued with your own point. |
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"Agree with your sentiment and conclusion. Just pointing that your previous example argued with your own point. "
It's trivial but I'm intrigued, which example argued with which point?
Was it just me pointing out that previously inflation was higher than it is now? |
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"Agree with your sentiment and conclusion. Just pointing that your previous example argued with your own point.
It's trivial but I'm intrigued, which example argued with which point?
Was it just me pointing out that previously inflation was higher than it is now?"
Yes, the defendent was found to be doing 73 mph for a brief period in a 30 mph zone but on average he was only doing 26 mph and at one point the vehicle came to a complete halt.
The analogy, not example (sorry). |
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"Yes, the defendent was found to be doing 73 mph for a brief period in a 30 mph zone but on average he was only doing 26 mph and at one point the vehicle came to a complete halt.
The analogy, not example (sorry)."
But that doesn't conflict with my argument.
You said " Cherry-picking high rates from the past few decades isn't really indicative of very much. One could arguably cherry pick the lowest four."
In a argument against the proposition that CPI being 3.8% CPI is worryingly high, pointing out that CPI was 11.1% a few years ago isn't cherry-picking.
Ignoring the fact that it was 11.1% to pretend that 3.8% is high would be cherry-picking by omission.
Thus my joke about playing down the fact that the defendent was doing 73 mph in a 30 mph zone. |
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"Yes, the defendent was found to be doing 73 mph for a brief period in a 30 mph zone but on average he was only doing 26 mph and at one point the vehicle came to a complete halt.
The analogy, not example (sorry).
But that doesn't conflict with my argument.
You said " Cherry-picking high rates from the past few decades isn't really indicative of very much. One could arguably cherry pick the lowest four."
In a argument against the proposition that CPI being 3.8% CPI is worryingly high, pointing out that CPI was 11.1% a few years ago isn't cherry-picking.
Ignoring the fact that it was 11.1% to pretend that 3.8% is high would be cherry-picking by omission.
Thus my joke about playing down the fact that the defendent was doing 73 mph in a 30 mph zone."
It's a matter of perspective, probably. Still, your general observation is correct. 3.8% is unpleasant (in a recent history context), but not a reason to panic. |
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"Quite a bit. About 20% of energy prices is down to Net Zero, and cafes use a lot of energy."
So what percentage of the cafe's overall running costs would you estimate was down to the net zero initiative?
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"Quite a bit. About 20% of energy prices is down to Net Zero, and cafes use a lot of energy.
So what percentage of the cafe's overall running costs would you estimate was down to the net zero initiative?
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Easy. 3-5%. That's pure net zero, not energy in general. |
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By *otMe66Man 33 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
The focus is on Nov 26th, not Nov 1990. This Treasury’s policies have been unpredictable, uninspiring, and costly. Telling people it’s been worse means nothing to them, when all they want is stability and more money in their pocket today. |
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"Easy. 3-5%. That's pure net zero, not energy in general."
Let's go with 5% to emphasize the "huge" cost of net zero.
And you said that the net zero component of energy bills was 20% so the energy bill would be five times higher than that, this would mean that you think that energy bills make up a quarter of the cafe's costs.
Are you sure that's anywhere near a realistic estimate given the cost of the premises, staff, food and drink supplies, other utilities, business rates, capital investment in furniture and equipment etc?
But just for the sake of argument let's imagine that net zero really was a 5% cost, would that close down an otherwise viable business? |
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By *otMe66Man 33 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"Easy. 3-5%. That's pure net zero, not energy in general.
Let's go with 5% to emphasize the "huge" cost of net zero.
And you said that the net zero component of energy bills was 20% so the energy bill would be five times higher than that, this would mean that you think that energy bills make up a quarter of the cafe's costs.
Are you sure that's anywhere near a realistic estimate given the cost of the premises, staff, food and drink supplies, other utilities, business rates, capital investment in furniture and equipment etc?
But just for the sake of argument let's imagine that net zero really was a 5% cost, would that close down an otherwise viable business?"
2 things to note.
5% is the upper end of net profit for a SME.
It is not 5% in isolation it compounds. |
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"2 things to note.
5% is the upper end of net profit for a SME.
It is not 5% in isolation it compounds."
I've run a couple of businesses where net profits were about twice the running costs.
Any business that can't survive a 5% increase in costs is toast.
Especially if it's a cafe selling toast.
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By *otMe66Man 33 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"2 things to note.
5% is the upper end of net profit for a SME.
It is not 5% in isolation it compounds.
I've run a couple of businesses where net profits were about twice the running costs.
Any business that can't survive a 5% increase in costs is toast.
Especially if it's a cafe selling toast.
"
Nice 
I'm not going to push this any further. |
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Not forgetting the 3.8% figure is fudged beyond belief. Check the so called basket of goods they use to calculate the figures and see how many do not apply. Pop to the supermarket or any shop and see how much more you are actually paying compared to last year. |
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"Not forgetting the 3.8% figure is fudged beyond belief. Check the so called basket of goods they use to calculate the figures and see how many do not apply. Pop to the supermarket or any shop and see how much more you are actually paying compared to last year."
I understand your point but the basket of 752 different items gives us a reasonable measure. We all of course buy different things so each of us will have our own individual inflation profile.
The methodology and the list of items and their weightings is published on the ONS website and I don't think it's subject to political manipulation. It's not perfect but it's difficult to imagine how one could design a measure that was perfect.
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"Not forgetting the 3.8% figure is fudged beyond belief. Check the so called basket of goods they use to calculate the figures and see how many do not apply. Pop to the supermarket or any shop and see how much more you are actually paying compared to last year.
I understand your point but the basket of 752 different items gives us a reasonable measure. We all of course buy different things so each of us will have our own individual inflation profile.
The methodology and the list of items and their weightings is published on the ONS website and I don't think it's subject to political manipulation. It's not perfect but it's difficult to imagine how one could design a measure that was perfect.
"
One word. Hamsters. |
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"Not forgetting the 3.8% figure is fudged beyond belief. Check the so called basket of goods they use to calculate the figures and see how many do not apply. Pop to the supermarket or any shop and see how much more you are actually paying compared to last year."
Rents have increased 6.7%(inc cpi data)
Mortgage payments increased 28% in 2024 ( down from 61% in 2023) - this probably the single biggest expenditure and largest increase in costs affecting 10 million households. CPI inflation data apparently does not include mortgage costs. |
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"One word. Hamsters."
Section 09.3 Other Recreational Items, Gardens and Pets includes a subsection called Pets, Related Products and Services...
Cat and dog food and dog treats, Pet collar, Small pet - eg hamster, Animal cage, Dog kennel boarding fees, Annual booster injection and Wild bird seed.
If you think inflation is inaccurately skewed by sales of hamsters then there's nothing I'll be able to say to convince you otherwise.
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"CPI inflation data apparently does not include mortgage costs."
That's what CPIH is for, although CPIH doesn't look directly at mortgage interest costs but instead estimates how much a house owner would have to pay to rent a similar property. |
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