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Kurdistan - could it happen?
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As of today, the Kurds are fighting against the Syrian regime more brutally and deadly than previously. Iran is losing its hold, especially in the Kurdish region. Turkey remains a massive threat and would not like to see it happen, but...
Might the nation of Kurdistan now be an imminent possibility? It would be game changing in the Middle East. |
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"As of today, the Kurds are fighting against the Syrian regime more brutally and deadly than previously. Iran is losing its hold, especially in the Kurdish region. Turkey remains a massive threat and would not like to see it happen, but...
Might the nation of Kurdistan now be an imminent possibility? It would be game changing in the Middle East."
Here's hoping, Mrs x |
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"As of today, the Kurds are fighting against the Syrian regime more brutally and deadly than previously. Iran is losing its hold, especially in the Kurdish region. Turkey remains a massive threat and would not like to see it happen, but...
Might the nation of Kurdistan now be an imminent possibility? It would be game changing in the Middle East."
nope it ain't gona happen and the reason why is Turkey won't allow it |
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"The biggest issue is Turkey getting the green light from Syria to take off the gloves and massacre/subjugate the Kurds."
That wouldn't be good at all for the Kurds, the Turkish have previous..
Would Trump make the same threat to Turkey as he has to the Iranian regime if it was imminent?
I doubt it.. |
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"The biggest issue is Turkey getting the green light from Syria to take off the gloves and massacre/subjugate the Kurds.
That wouldn't be good at all for the Kurds, the Turkish have previous..
Would Trump make the same threat to Turkey as he has to the Iranian regime if it was imminent?
I doubt it.."
He previously left (his allies) the Kurds to be massacred by Turkey. He's spineless when it comes to real threats. |
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"The biggest issue is Turkey getting the green light from Syria to take off the gloves and massacre/subjugate the Kurds.
That wouldn't be good at all for the Kurds, the Turkish have previous..
Would Trump make the same threat to Turkey as he has to the Iranian regime if it was imminent?
I doubt it..
He previously left (his allies) the Kurds to be massacred by Turkey. He's spineless when it comes to real threats."
Echoes of 'brave Sir Robin'..
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"
Echoes of 'brave Sir Robin'..
"
To be fair, he bravely ran away...
Actually, it's worse. He decides to leave allies in the lurch when it's of no economic or ideological interest to him. That's certainly a point of view, but it's not one conducive to keeping friends. The same is true in his personal and business relationships. |
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"
Echoes of 'brave Sir Robin'..
To be fair, he bravely ran away...
Actually, it's worse. He decides to leave allies in the lurch when it's of no economic or ideological interest to him. That's certainly a point of view, but it's not one conducive to keeping friends. The same is true in his personal and business relationships."
|
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After Turkey did Iran's dirty work and the Syrian regime has completely subjugated the Kurds, the very survival of a Kurdish identity looks fraught. What a difference two weeks makes.
And Trump was at the very least complicit... But then he was never a friend of the Kurds. |
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As the Kurds are being pushed back, the ex-ISIS regime in Syria is "liberating" the ISIS prison camps that the Kurds were overseeing, with literal terrorists now running wild. Kurdish girls are being apprehended by regime/ISIS forces (on camera). Kurdish statues are being toppled. This follows the massacres of Christians, Alawites and Druze.
Meanwhile, the US is looking the other way, nodding in agreement with Jolani as he talks about a United Syria. |
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"After Turkey did Iran's dirty work and the Syrian regime has completely subjugated the Kurds, the very survival of a Kurdish identity looks fraught. What a difference two weeks makes.
And Trump was at the very least complicit... But then he was never a friend of the Kurds."
Maybe he's planning on saying this is another 'war' he's stopped, after the Kurds are decimated..? |
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Apparently, the Syrian "government" has cancelled contracts with Shell (Anglo-Dutch) and made new ones with Chevron/ExxonMobil (USA). For the oil fields that were until now Druze controlled.
This might explain the cool US attitude to the Kurds. Also rumoured that US officials are declaring that the Kurds served their purpose.
Moreover, Trump is cuddling up to Erdogan quite significantly. Happy times. |
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Not that anyone cares...
This is a massive opportunity for the Kurds, and Israel has degraded the border between Iran & Iraq in the Kurdistan region for precisely this reason.
If this happens, will it drag Turkey into the fray, as they do anything to undermine the Kurds and any hopes of a Kurdistan? Will Syria then get dragged in, as proxies or allies of Turkey? |
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A couple of hundred thousand Kurds, arguably the best fighters in the region, with strong command and control capabilities, fierce loyalty and who are fighting for a homeland, are poised to begin a ground campaign in Western Iran within the next few days.
The world has a long history of getting the Kurds to do their dirty work for them (and they always get the job done), but abandoning them when they're no longer needed. Trump himself has done this twice now (with Turkey in the last term and Syria in this term).
If they are successful, we can hope for an independent Kurdistan within the decade. An independent Kurdistan would be a massively stabilising force in the Middle East (once Turkey gets their head around it). |
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The Kurds certainly aint had a good run over the past few decades.
Straddling multiple borders doesn’t help the situation
I’ve asked this question repeatedly regarding the Iran situation and nobody has answered so I doubt I’ll get an answer here either…
What is the solution? American troops on the ground fighting the Turks alongside the Kurds? |
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"The Kurds certainly aint had a good run over the past few decades.
Straddling multiple borders doesn’t help the situation
I’ve asked this question repeatedly regarding the Iran situation and nobody has answered so I doubt I’ll get an answer here either…
What is the solution? American troops on the ground fighting the Turks alongside the Kurds? "
Unlikely..
But if and its a big if the Kurds carry out a ground incursion they will need air cover for Iranian ground assets and whatever is left missiles and drones wise..
That will be American ground to air controllers etc..
Mission creep again..
The plan looks to be degrading irans offensive capabilities to hit Israel and others but how long does it continue..
If an American or Israeli plane malfunction or get hit and the crew captured then that's not going down well on CNN etc..
It was a festering sore when the Iranians took the Americans hostage and the attempt to release them went badly wrong..
Mid terms in 8 months etc..
It looks adhoc and being developed as it progresses which might work but doubtful.. |
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"A couple of hundred thousand Kurds, arguably the best fighters in the region, with strong command and control capabilities, fierce loyalty and who are fighting for a homeland, are poised to begin a ground campaign in Western Iran within the next few days.
The world has a long history of getting the Kurds to do their dirty work for them (and they always get the job done), but abandoning them when they're no longer needed. Trump himself has done this twice now (with Turkey in the last term and Syria in this term).
If they are successful, we can hope for an independent Kurdistan within the decade. An independent Kurdistan would be a massively stabilising force in the Middle East (once Turkey gets their head around it)."
There is no way Turkey is going to allow an independent Kurdistan. A huge part of their foreign policy has been aimed for decades at stopping this by any means. They are not going to change tack now. |
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"
There is no way Turkey is going to allow an independent Kurdistan. A huge part of their foreign policy has been aimed for decades at stopping this by any means. They are not going to change tack now."
They can stop it in Syria and Turkey, but how will they stop it in Iran (until now, they simply helped the Iranian regime) and Iraq? If they get involved, then article 5 goes out the window. Imagine a scenario where Israel is allied with Kurds in Iran and Turkey attacks. That could enable Israel to respond within Turkey without triggering article 5*. That would be intolerable to Turkey, so perhaps they would not intervene.
(*Not an expert in this - open to bring corrected) |
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"
But if and its a big if the Kurds carry out a ground incursion they will need air cover for Iranian ground assets and whatever is left missiles and drones wise.."
incursion
noun
1. a sudden attack on or act of going into a place, especially across a border:
incursions into enemy territory
They already live there, it wouldn't be an incursion, although they might invite some friends from across the border (which is one reason why Turkey has reinforced their Iranian border). |
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"
But if and its a big if the Kurds carry out a ground incursion they will need air cover for Iranian ground assets and whatever is left missiles and drones wise..
incursion
noun
1. a sudden attack on or act of going into a place, especially across a border:
incursions into enemy territory
They already live there, it wouldn't be an incursion, although they might invite some friends from across the border (which is one reason why Turkey has reinforced their Iranian border)."
Disappointing that you feel the need to try and be condescending ..
You and I both know that Trump wants them to go further in whatever we call it than what they historically believe to be their homeland..
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"
There is no way Turkey is going to allow an independent Kurdistan. A huge part of their foreign policy has been aimed for decades at stopping this by any means. They are not going to change tack now.
They can stop it in Syria and Turkey, but how will they stop it in Iran (until now, they simply helped the Iranian regime) and Iraq? If they get involved, then article 5 goes out the window. Imagine a scenario where Israel is allied with Kurds in Iran and Turkey attacks. That could enable Israel to respond within Turkey without triggering article 5*. That would be intolerable to Turkey, so perhaps they would not intervene.
(*Not an expert in this - open to bring corrected)"
You are suggesting Israel would attack Turkey? Whilst they are also fighting in Iran and Lebanon and with a destabilised Gaza?
I think that would open up all sorts of bags of shit and no one could say what the outcome would be. One of the longest standing NATO members attacked by a non NATO ally? That wouldn’t end well. |
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"
But if and its a big if the Kurds carry out a ground incursion they will need air cover for Iranian ground assets and whatever is left missiles and drones wise..
incursion
noun
1. a sudden attack on or act of going into a place, especially across a border:
incursions into enemy territory
They already live there, it wouldn't be an incursion, although they might invite some friends from across the border (which is one reason why Turkey has reinforced their Iranian border).
Disappointing that you feel the need to try and be condescending ..
You and I both know that Trump wants them to go further in whatever we call it than what they historically believe to be their homeland..
"
Genuine apologies (really). Also, because of the stupidity of pasting, then deleting phonetic characters, the second half of the post was lost 
Again, sorry. |
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"
You are suggesting Israel would attack Turkey? Whilst they are also fighting in Iran and Lebanon and with a destabilised Gaza?
I think that would open up all sorts of bags of shit and no one could say what the outcome would be. One of the longest standing NATO members attacked by a non NATO ally? That wouldn’t end well."
Not at all. Just musing.
But, hypothetically, what would happen if Turkey engaged Israel in Iran or Iraq? |
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"
There is no way Turkey is going to allow an independent Kurdistan. A huge part of their foreign policy has been aimed for decades at stopping this by any means. They are not going to change tack now.
They can stop it in Syria and Turkey, but how will they stop it in Iran (until now, they simply helped the Iranian regime) and Iraq? If they get involved, then article 5 goes out the window. Imagine a scenario where Israel is allied with Kurds in Iran and Turkey attacks. That could enable Israel to respond within Turkey without triggering article 5*. That would be intolerable to Turkey, so perhaps they would not intervene.
(*Not an expert in this - open to bring corrected)
You are suggesting Israel would attack Turkey? Whilst they are also fighting in Iran and Lebanon and with a destabilised Gaza?
I think that would open up all sorts of bags of shit and no one could say what the outcome would be. One of the longest standing NATO members attacked by a non NATO ally? That wouldn’t end well."
There’s more chance of Starmer smashing the gangs than there is of any type of conflict between Turkey and Isreal. |
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"
But if and its a big if the Kurds carry out a ground incursion they will need air cover for Iranian ground assets and whatever is left missiles and drones wise..
incursion
noun
1. a sudden attack on or act of going into a place, especially across a border:
incursions into enemy territory
They already live there, it wouldn't be an incursion, although they might invite some friends from across the border (which is one reason why Turkey has reinforced their Iranian border).
Disappointing that you feel the need to try and be condescending ..
You and I both know that Trump wants them to go further in whatever we call it than what they historically believe to be their homeland..
Genuine apologies (really). Also, because of the stupidity of pasting, then deleting phonetic characters, the second half of the post was lost
Again, sorry."
No worries and thank you for saying that..
I was rather surprised tbh as its not how you contribute on here .. |
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"
You are suggesting Israel would attack Turkey? Whilst they are also fighting in Iran and Lebanon and with a destabilised Gaza?
I think that would open up all sorts of bags of shit and no one could say what the outcome would be. One of the longest standing NATO members attacked by a non NATO ally? That wouldn’t end well.
Not at all. Just musing.
But, hypothetically, what would happen if Turkey engaged Israel in Iran or Iraq?"
The two biggest and most militarily capable powers in the region fighting over something that both sides think is existential? You would probably have the start of World War 3. |
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"
You are suggesting Israel would attack Turkey? Whilst they are also fighting in Iran and Lebanon and with a destabilised Gaza?
I think that would open up all sorts of bags of shit and no one could say what the outcome would be. One of the longest standing NATO members attacked by a non NATO ally? That wouldn’t end well.
Not at all. Just musing.
But, hypothetically, what would happen if Turkey engaged Israel in Iran or Iraq?
The two biggest and most militarily capable powers in the region fighting over something that both sides think is existential? You would probably have the start of World War 3."
So getting back to what Turkey would do to prevent Kurds getting an autonomous foothold in Iran/Iraq, how would they prevent that if the Kurds were allied with Israel who, hypothetically, could use that area as a staging area for some of their own troops, not to mention US support staff (e.g. the CIA & specialist consultants/contractors)? If the Kurds could get even a few hundred Israeli boots on the ground in Iranian Kurdistan, might that save them? |
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"
You are suggesting Israel would attack Turkey? Whilst they are also fighting in Iran and Lebanon and with a destabilised Gaza?
I think that would open up all sorts of bags of shit and no one could say what the outcome would be. One of the longest standing NATO members attacked by a non NATO ally? That wouldn’t end well.
Not at all. Just musing.
But, hypothetically, what would happen if Turkey engaged Israel in Iran or Iraq?
The two biggest and most militarily capable powers in the region fighting over something that both sides think is existential? You would probably have the start of World War 3.
So getting back to what Turkey would do to prevent Kurds getting an autonomous foothold in Iran/Iraq, how would they prevent that if the Kurds were allied with Israel who, hypothetically, could use that area as a staging area for some of their own troops, not to mention US support staff (e.g. the CIA & specialist consultants/contractors)? If the Kurds could get even a few hundred Israeli boots on the ground in Iranian Kurdistan, might that save them?"
My guess would be that the Turks would attack anything that led to an independent Kurdistan. Israel knows this. I can see Israel using the Kurds as cannon fodder and then abandoning them when the time is right. Just like everyone else has. The Kurds are existential to Turkey. They are merely the means to ending the existential threat (Iran) for Israel. |
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"I can see Israel using the Kurds as cannon fodder and then abandoning them when the time is right. Just like everyone else has."
You might be right, which would be very unfortunate.
However, unlike other powers, Israel has to live in the neighborhood afterwards and again, unlike other powers, an independent Kurdish state is of massive strategic interest to Israel. |
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Perhaps Turkey is now green-lit to operate inside Iran. Interestingly convenient?
========================================
BREAKING: Turkish MoD:
A ballistic munition that was detected heading toward Turkish airspace after being launched from Iran and passing through Iraqi and Syrian airspace was successfully engaged and neutralized in time by NATO air and missile defense elements deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean.
It has been determined that the piece of munition that fell in the Dörtyol district of Hatay province belongs to the air defense munition used in the interception following the destruction of the said threat in the air. No casualties or injuries occurred in the incident.
All necessary steps to defend our territory and airspace will be taken with determination and without hesitation. We remind that our right to respond to any hostile actions against our country is reserved.
We warn all parties to refrain from actions that could further spread the conflict in the region. In this regard, we will continue consultations with NATO and our other allies. |
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"Perhaps Turkey is now green-lit to operate inside Iran. Interestingly convenient?
========================================
BREAKING: Turkish MoD:
A ballistic munition that was detected heading toward Turkish airspace after being launched from Iran and passing through Iraqi and Syrian airspace was successfully engaged and neutralized in time by NATO air and missile defense elements deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean.
It has been determined that the piece of munition that fell in the Dörtyol district of Hatay province belongs to the air defense munition used in the interception following the destruction of the said threat in the air. No casualties or injuries occurred in the incident.
All necessary steps to defend our territory and airspace will be taken with determination and without hesitation. We remind that our right to respond to any hostile actions against our country is reserved.
We warn all parties to refrain from actions that could further spread the conflict in the region. In this regard, we will continue consultations with NATO and our other allies."
If Iran has attacked Turkey then Turkey would be within its rights to execute Article 5. That would be a potential game changer. |
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If Iran has attacked Turkey then Turkey would be within its rights to execute Article 5. That would be a potential game changer."
Potentially. Or it could be ignored, like Russian missiles/drones over the past couple of years. But it puts options on the table. |
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If Iran has attacked Turkey then Turkey would be within its rights to execute Article 5. That would be a potential game changer.
Potentially. Or it could be ignored, like Russian missiles/drones over the past couple of years. But it puts options on the table."
That would be the more likely outcome. Same as the UK being attacked in Cyprus. I don’t think anyone in the region, other than Israel, wants to escalate. The GCC hasn’t responded despite being pummelled constantly. |
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If Iran has attacked Turkey then Turkey would be within its rights to execute Article 5. That would be a potential game changer.
Potentially. Or it could be ignored, like Russian missiles/drones over the past couple of years. But it puts options on the table.
That would be the more likely outcome. Same as the UK being attacked in Cyprus. I don’t think anyone in the region, other than Israel, wants to escalate. The GCC hasn’t responded despite being pummelled constantly."
Honestly, the Cyprus attack was oddly convenient and seemed to serve no strategic purpose for Iran. Also, Cyprus is notably NOT NATO and you can't, in all good faith, trigger article 5 for an attack on a foreign base. |
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"
If Iran has attacked Turkey then Turkey would be within its rights to execute Article 5. That would be a potential game changer.
Potentially. Or it could be ignored, like Russian missiles/drones over the past couple of years. But it puts options on the table.
That would be the more likely outcome. Same as the UK being attacked in Cyprus. I don’t think anyone in the region, other than Israel, wants to escalate. The GCC hasn’t responded despite being pummelled constantly.
Honestly, the Cyprus attack was oddly convenient and seemed to serve no strategic purpose for Iran. Also, Cyprus is notably NOT NATO and you can't, in all good faith, trigger article 5 for an attack on a foreign base."
I agree. I am just pointing to the fact that the grown up countries are not reacting to the provocation. |
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"
If Iran has attacked Turkey then Turkey would be within its rights to execute Article 5. That would be a potential game changer.
Potentially. Or it could be ignored, like Russian missiles/drones over the past couple of years. But it puts options on the table.
That would be the more likely outcome. Same as the UK being attacked in Cyprus. I don’t think anyone in the region, other than Israel, wants to escalate. The GCC hasn’t responded despite being pummelled constantly."
Agreed..
France and ourselves plus whomever else will hopefully give the Gulf States the reason not to contemplate direct offensive actions at Iran..
Interesting that theres a feeling voiced by some that America has prioritised Israels defence over the Gulf States or is that to be expected.. |
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"
If Iran has attacked Turkey then Turkey would be within its rights to execute Article 5. That would be a potential game changer.
Potentially. Or it could be ignored, like Russian missiles/drones over the past couple of years. But it puts options on the table.
That would be the more likely outcome. Same as the UK being attacked in Cyprus. I don’t think anyone in the region, other than Israel, wants to escalate. The GCC hasn’t responded despite being pummelled constantly.
Agreed..
France and ourselves plus whomever else will hopefully give the Gulf States the reason not to contemplate direct offensive actions at Iran..
Interesting that theres a feeling voiced by some that America has prioritised Israels defence over the Gulf States or is that to be expected.."
To be fair to the US they are in a very difficult situation. They have regional allies (GCC and Israel) that intensely dislike each other. Let’s not forget Israel attacked Qatar last year to kill the Hamas delegation so there is previous.
I don’t think the US is deliberately prioritising one over the other but Israel is leading America on a merry dance here and they can’t be stopped. I can see why the GCC would be more than pissed off. |
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"
If Iran has attacked Turkey then Turkey would be within its rights to execute Article 5. That would be a potential game changer.
Potentially. Or it could be ignored, like Russian missiles/drones over the past couple of years. But it puts options on the table.
That would be the more likely outcome. Same as the UK being attacked in Cyprus. I don’t think anyone in the region, other than Israel, wants to escalate. The GCC hasn’t responded despite being pummelled constantly.
Agreed..
France and ourselves plus whomever else will hopefully give the Gulf States the reason not to contemplate direct offensive actions at Iran..
Interesting that theres a feeling voiced by some that America has prioritised Israels defence over the Gulf States or is that to be expected..
To be fair to the US they are in a very difficult situation. They have regional allies (GCC and Israel) that intensely dislike each other. Let’s not forget Israel attacked Qatar last year to kill the Hamas delegation so there is previous.
I don’t think the US is deliberately prioritising one over the other but Israel is leading America on a merry dance here and they can’t be stopped. I can see why the GCC would be more than pissed off. "
Apparently there was surprise in Washington that Iran has reacted just as the now expired Ayatollah said they would if attacked..
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