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Snap General Election ?

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By (user no longer on site) OP     over a year ago

If Thier were a General Election based on our current first past the post system how do you think all the parties would do ?

How many Seats ?

Also if it was under P R , how many Seats ?

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By *entaur_UKMan  over a year ago

Cannock


"If Thier were a General Election based on our current first past the post system how do you think all the parties would do ?

How many Seats ?

Also if it was under P R , how many Seats ? "

Not going to guess on how many seats but if there were a general election tomorrow I'd say it would be a landslide victory for the Tories, and a wipeout disaster for Labour. After the EU referendum I'd say that ukip and the Lib dems would also pick up a few more seats at Labours expense. Landslide victory for the SNP in Scotland.

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By (user no longer on site) OP     over a year ago


"If Thier were a General Election based on our current first past the post system how do you think all the parties would do ?

How many Seats ?

Also if it was under P R , how many Seats ?

Not going to guess on how many seats but if there were a general election tomorrow I'd say it would be a landslide victory for the Tories, and a wipeout disaster for Labour. After the EU referendum I'd say that ukip and the Lib dems would also pick up a few more seats at Labours expense. Landslide victory for the SNP in Scotland. "

Unfortunately with our system I think UKIP would be lucky to win 5 !

Under pr they would get a Hundred Plus !

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By *entaur_UKMan  over a year ago

Cannock


"If Thier were a General Election based on our current first past the post system how do you think all the parties would do ?

How many Seats ?

Also if it was under P R , how many Seats ?

Not going to guess on how many seats but if there were a general election tomorrow I'd say it would be a landslide victory for the Tories, and a wipeout disaster for Labour. After the EU referendum I'd say that ukip and the Lib dems would also pick up a few more seats at Labours expense. Landslide victory for the SNP in Scotland.

Unfortunately with our system I think UKIP would be lucky to win 5 !

Under pr they would get a Hundred Plus !"

Many of the Labour seats in the north of England voted Leave in big numbers in the EU referendum. These seats have Labour MP's who backed Remain, if I were a Labour MP in one of those seats I'd be very worried. Take the seat in Stoke where Tristan Hunt just resigned, he backed Remain and 70% of the people there voted Leave. Ukip came 2nd in that seat in the general election just 5,000 votes behind Labour. That 5,000 could easily be overturned in the by election and I'm tipping Ukip to win that seat now in the by election.

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By (user no longer on site) OP     over a year ago


"If Thier were a General Election based on our current first past the post system how do you think all the parties would do ?

How many Seats ?

Also if it was under P R , how many Seats ?

Not going to guess on how many seats but if there were a general election tomorrow I'd say it would be a landslide victory for the Tories, and a wipeout disaster for Labour. After the EU referendum I'd say that ukip and the Lib dems would also pick up a few more seats at Labours expense. Landslide victory for the SNP in Scotland.

Unfortunately with our system I think UKIP would be lucky to win 5 !

Under pr they would get a Hundred Plus !

Many of the Labour seats in the north of England voted Leave in big numbers in the EU referendum. These seats have Labour MP's who backed Remain, if I were a Labour MP in one of those seats I'd be very worried. Take the seat in Stoke where Tristan Hunt just resigned, he backed Remain and 70% of the people there voted Leave. Ukip came 2nd in that seat in the general election just 5,000 votes behind Labour. That 5,000 could easily be overturned in the by election and I'm tipping Ukip to win that seat now in the by election. "

I do hope you are Right

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago

My pennies worth:

Under current first past the post - I think there are too many variables to say there'd be only one or two outcomes. And it really would be on how the GE is fought, if it's fought on identity politics ( remain vs leave) then the result would be poor, I imagine many people would actually be put off voting.

If it's fought on how a GE should be fought - on national policies, then it would be an interesting vote to see how the public turns out. Given that there is discontent in the North and low income areas with how the tories have imposed austerity, yet many people I have spoken to - even those I know who voted leave, wont vote UKIP, but at the same point labour is a marmite party atm...it'd be interesting to see who loses and gains the most.

So I'll try and break down the ways I can see it panning out, in no particular order.

Version one, Tory win due to divided society:

Basically what happened in the last GE, where labour lost scotland and had it's vote marginalised in some areas, thus meaning the tories could capitalise as their core and secondary voting areas remained untouched. However I'll say it will be slimmer for the tories this time.

I'd say Labour could fail to take anywhere back in scotland and struggle to fight back in wales. Some Northern and midland constituencies could go UKIP or libdem in areas where the EU referendum leave/remain vote was VERY strong in either direction.

Tories could a lose a few seats or have weaker voter turn out in the south or more pro-tory constituencies as a lot were more pro-EU, and the libdems might capitalise on this.

This can be said about UKIP in the southern labour seats and very conservative seats in the south.

Overall, Tories squeeze through by holding it together whilst labour suffers the most through a fragmented voter base.

Option 2, unprecedented labour win:

Most people probably spat out their tea as they laughed reading that but, the polls have been wrong a lot over the last 2 years - I doubt it, but wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong and either labour edges a win, or comfortably wins.

Reasoning for this? I know a lot of people - older and the same age as myself who voted leave, living in strong and marginal labour seats.

Their consensus is that despite voting leave they would not vote UKIP - the go to phrase is that beyond the referendum, what have UKIP done?

They don't have union backing, they don't seem to have a very strong investment based economic plan, they are touchy in many progressive issues eg, education, science and climate change, and Nutalls deleted comments about being glad blair opened the NHS to privatisation have damaged his standing with labour voters.

Basically a lot of people have told me, despite voting leave, they will most likely go labour again because they do not trust the other parties or they like the anti-austerity message corbyn preaches.

How could these lead to a win? Long shot, but perhaps the tory vote fractures, they are having a quiet civil war, many to the left of the party disheartened on the way the party is moving with brexit, and I'd go as far to say that some voters will vote UKIP to ensure their vision of brexit happens.

Basically their vote might fracture with the lib dems and UKIP splitting the vote.

A lot of people also think the North going UKIP is over played a bit, a bit of a media hype. They could be wrong, or they could be right.

I can't really see any other possible ways a snap GE would turn out.

I imagine under FPTP the lib dem and UKIP votes are too far spread out the amount to huge gains with either of them becoming the new opposition or winning. I do expect their votes to sore, as whether its a GE or snap GE, both will be determined so some degree by the process and delivery of brexit, or lack thereof.

Going by the people I get chatting to on the train, bus, workplace, friends and family - if we had PR or some variation of it, the vote could go approx one quarter labour, one quarter tory, one quarter UKIP, and one quarter SNP+lib dem and fringe parties.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago

Sorry for not elaborating on the other couple of options, but they are very waffley a long shots and I can''t be arse writing them all up tbh.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"If Thier were a General Election based on our current first past the post system how do you think all the parties would do ?

How many Seats ?

Also if it was under P R , how many Seats ?

Not going to guess on how many seats but if there were a general election tomorrow I'd say it would be a landslide victory for the Tories, and a wipeout disaster for Labour. After the EU referendum I'd say that ukip and the Lib dems would also pick up a few more seats at Labours expense. Landslide victory for the SNP in Scotland. "

Today Saturday 14th Jan 2017

A conference of independence activists aimed at preparing Scotland for another referendum has been held in Glasgow.

The Scottish Independence Convention is hosted the "Build" meeting at the Radisson hotel in the city.

MPs and MSPs from the SNP and the Scottish Greens joined activists and academics in speaking at the event

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By *or Fox SakeCouple  over a year ago

Thornaby


"If Thier were a General Election based on our current first past the post system how do you think all the parties would do ?

How many Seats ?

Also if it was under P R , how many Seats ?

Not going to guess on how many seats but if there were a general election tomorrow I'd say it would be a landslide victory for the Tories, and a wipeout disaster for Labour. After the EU referendum I'd say that ukip and the Lib dems would also pick up a few more seats at Labours expense. Landslide victory for the SNP in Scotland.

Today Saturday 14th Jan 2017

A conference of independence activists aimed at preparing Scotland for another referendum has been held in Glasgow.

The Scottish Independence Convention is hosted the "Build" meeting at the Radisson hotel in the city.

MPs and MSPs from the SNP and the Scottish Greens joined activists and academics in speaking at the event

"

Ah the snp, the party of grievance and not a lot else

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By *LCCCouple  over a year ago

Cambridge


"If Thier were a General Election based on our current first past the post system how do you think all the parties would do ?

How many Seats ?

Also if it was under P R , how many Seats ?

Not going to guess on how many seats but if there were a general election tomorrow I'd say it would be a landslide victory for the Tories, and a wipeout disaster for Labour. After the EU referendum I'd say that ukip and the Lib dems would also pick up a few more seats at Labours expense. Landslide victory for the SNP in Scotland. "

I hate to say I, but I agree.

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By *imiUKMan  over a year ago

Newbury


"My pennies worth:

Under current first past the post - I think there are too many variables to say there'd be only one or two outcomes. And it really would be on how the GE is fought, if it's fought on identity politics ( remain vs leave) then the result would be poor, I imagine many people would actually be put off voting.

If it's fought on how a GE should be fought - on national policies, then it would be an interesting vote to see how the public turns out. Given that there is discontent in the North and low income areas with how the tories have imposed austerity, yet many people I have spoken to - even those I know who voted leave, wont vote UKIP, but at the same point labour is a marmite party atm...it'd be interesting to see who loses and gains the most.

So I'll try and break down the ways I can see it panning out, in no particular order.

Version one, Tory win due to divided society:

Basically what happened in the last GE, where labour lost scotland and had it's vote marginalised in some areas, thus meaning the tories could capitalise as their core and secondary voting areas remained untouched. However I'll say it will be slimmer for the tories this time.

I'd say Labour could fail to take anywhere back in scotland and struggle to fight back in wales. Some Northern and midland constituencies could go UKIP or libdem in areas where the EU referendum leave/remain vote was VERY strong in either direction.

Tories could a lose a few seats or have weaker voter turn out in the south or more pro-tory constituencies as a lot were more pro-EU, and the libdems might capitalise on this.

This can be said about UKIP in the southern labour seats and very conservative seats in the south.

Overall, Tories squeeze through by holding it together whilst labour suffers the most through a fragmented voter base.

Option 2, unprecedented labour win:

Most people probably spat out their tea as they laughed reading that but, the polls have been wrong a lot over the last 2 years - I doubt it, but wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong and either labour edges a win, or comfortably wins.

Reasoning for this? I know a lot of people - older and the same age as myself who voted leave, living in strong and marginal labour seats.

Their consensus is that despite voting leave they would not vote UKIP - the go to phrase is that beyond the referendum, what have UKIP done?

They don't have union backing, they don't seem to have a very strong investment based economic plan, they are touchy in many progressive issues eg, education, science and climate change, and Nutalls deleted comments about being glad blair opened the NHS to privatisation have damaged his standing with labour voters.

Basically a lot of people have told me, despite voting leave, they will most likely go labour again because they do not trust the other parties or they like the anti-austerity message corbyn preaches.

How could these lead to a win? Long shot, but perhaps the tory vote fractures, they are having a quiet civil war, many to the left of the party disheartened on the way the party is moving with brexit, and I'd go as far to say that some voters will vote UKIP to ensure their vision of brexit happens.

Basically their vote might fracture with the lib dems and UKIP splitting the vote.

A lot of people also think the North going UKIP is over played a bit, a bit of a media hype. They could be wrong, or they could be right.

I can't really see any other possible ways a snap GE would turn out.

I imagine under FPTP the lib dem and UKIP votes are too far spread out the amount to huge gains with either of them becoming the new opposition or winning. I do expect their votes to sore, as whether its a GE or snap GE, both will be determined so some degree by the process and delivery of brexit, or lack thereof.

Going by the people I get chatting to on the train, bus, workplace, friends and family - if we had PR or some variation of it, the vote could go approx one quarter labour, one quarter tory, one quarter UKIP, and one quarter SNP+lib dem and fringe parties."

I wouldn't rule out your 2nd option. Labour does seem to be engaging the non-voters and is the fastest growing party in terms of membership in the country. Christ, I even heard people ringing up Vine on r2 (usually full of very right wing callers) to say they liked Corbyn.

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By *or Fox SakeCouple  over a year ago

Thornaby


"My pennies worth:

Under current first past the post - I think there are too many variables to say there'd be only one or two outcomes. And it really would be on how the GE is fought, if it's fought on identity politics ( remain vs leave) then the result would be poor, I imagine many people would actually be put off voting.

If it's fought on how a GE should be fought - on national policies, then it would be an interesting vote to see how the public turns out. Given that there is discontent in the North and low income areas with how the tories have imposed austerity, yet many people I have spoken to - even those I know who voted leave, wont vote UKIP, but at the same point labour is a marmite party atm...it'd be interesting to see who loses and gains the most.

So I'll try and break down the ways I can see it panning out, in no particular order.

Version one, Tory win due to divided society:

Basically what happened in the last GE, where labour lost scotland and had it's vote marginalised in some areas, thus meaning the tories could capitalise as their core and secondary voting areas remained untouched. However I'll say it will be slimmer for the tories this time.

I'd say Labour could fail to take anywhere back in scotland and struggle to fight back in wales. Some Northern and midland constituencies could go UKIP or libdem in areas where the EU referendum leave/remain vote was VERY strong in either direction.

Tories could a lose a few seats or have weaker voter turn out in the south or more pro-tory constituencies as a lot were more pro-EU, and the libdems might capitalise on this.

This can be said about UKIP in the southern labour seats and very conservative seats in the south.

Overall, Tories squeeze through by holding it together whilst labour suffers the most through a fragmented voter base.

Option 2, unprecedented labour win:

Most people probably spat out their tea as they laughed reading that but, the polls have been wrong a lot over the last 2 years - I doubt it, but wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong and either labour edges a win, or comfortably wins.

Reasoning for this? I know a lot of people - older and the same age as myself who voted leave, living in strong and marginal labour seats.

Their consensus is that despite voting leave they would not vote UKIP - the go to phrase is that beyond the referendum, what have UKIP done?

They don't have union backing, they don't seem to have a very strong investment based economic plan, they are touchy in many progressive issues eg, education, science and climate change, and Nutalls deleted comments about being glad blair opened the NHS to privatisation have damaged his standing with labour voters.

Basically a lot of people have told me, despite voting leave, they will most likely go labour again because they do not trust the other parties or they like the anti-austerity message corbyn preaches.

How could these lead to a win? Long shot, but perhaps the tory vote fractures, they are having a quiet civil war, many to the left of the party disheartened on the way the party is moving with brexit, and I'd go as far to say that some voters will vote UKIP to ensure their vision of brexit happens.

Basically their vote might fracture with the lib dems and UKIP splitting the vote.

A lot of people also think the North going UKIP is over played a bit, a bit of a media hype. They could be wrong, or they could be right.

I can't really see any other possible ways a snap GE would turn out.

I imagine under FPTP the lib dem and UKIP votes are too far spread out the amount to huge gains with either of them becoming the new opposition or winning. I do expect their votes to sore, as whether its a GE or snap GE, both will be determined so some degree by the process and delivery of brexit, or lack thereof.

Going by the people I get chatting to on the train, bus, workplace, friends and family - if we had PR or some variation of it, the vote could go approx one quarter labour, one quarter tory, one quarter UKIP, and one quarter SNP+lib dem and fringe parties.

I wouldn't rule out your 2nd option. Labour does seem to be engaging the non-voters and is the fastest growing party in terms of membership in the country. Christ, I even heard people ringing up Vine on r2 (usually full of very right wing callers) to say they liked Corbyn. "

Labour are gaining members, these are people who were going to vote labour anyway, as such it's useless.

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By *imiUKMan  over a year ago

Newbury


"My pennies worth:

Under current first past the post - I think there are too many variables to say there'd be only one or two outcomes. And it really would be on how the GE is fought, if it's fought on identity politics ( remain vs leave) then the result would be poor, I imagine many people would actually be put off voting.

If it's fought on how a GE should be fought - on national policies, then it would be an interesting vote to see how the public turns out. Given that there is discontent in the North and low income areas with how the tories have imposed austerity, yet many people I have spoken to - even those I know who voted leave, wont vote UKIP, but at the same point labour is a marmite party atm...it'd be interesting to see who loses and gains the most.

So I'll try and break down the ways I can see it panning out, in no particular order.

Version one, Tory win due to divided society:

Basically what happened in the last GE, where labour lost scotland and had it's vote marginalised in some areas, thus meaning the tories could capitalise as their core and secondary voting areas remained untouched. However I'll say it will be slimmer for the tories this time.

I'd say Labour could fail to take anywhere back in scotland and struggle to fight back in wales. Some Northern and midland constituencies could go UKIP or libdem in areas where the EU referendum leave/remain vote was VERY strong in either direction.

Tories could a lose a few seats or have weaker voter turn out in the south or more pro-tory constituencies as a lot were more pro-EU, and the libdems might capitalise on this.

This can be said about UKIP in the southern labour seats and very conservative seats in the south.

Overall, Tories squeeze through by holding it together whilst labour suffers the most through a fragmented voter base.

Option 2, unprecedented labour win:

Most people probably spat out their tea as they laughed reading that but, the polls have been wrong a lot over the last 2 years - I doubt it, but wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong and either labour edges a win, or comfortably wins.

Reasoning for this? I know a lot of people - older and the same age as myself who voted leave, living in strong and marginal labour seats.

Their consensus is that despite voting leave they would not vote UKIP - the go to phrase is that beyond the referendum, what have UKIP done?

They don't have union backing, they don't seem to have a very strong investment based economic plan, they are touchy in many progressive issues eg, education, science and climate change, and Nutalls deleted comments about being glad blair opened the NHS to privatisation have damaged his standing with labour voters.

Basically a lot of people have told me, despite voting leave, they will most likely go labour again because they do not trust the other parties or they like the anti-austerity message corbyn preaches.

How could these lead to a win? Long shot, but perhaps the tory vote fractures, they are having a quiet civil war, many to the left of the party disheartened on the way the party is moving with brexit, and I'd go as far to say that some voters will vote UKIP to ensure their vision of brexit happens.

Basically their vote might fracture with the lib dems and UKIP splitting the vote.

A lot of people also think the North going UKIP is over played a bit, a bit of a media hype. They could be wrong, or they could be right.

I can't really see any other possible ways a snap GE would turn out.

I imagine under FPTP the lib dem and UKIP votes are too far spread out the amount to huge gains with either of them becoming the new opposition or winning. I do expect their votes to sore, as whether its a GE or snap GE, both will be determined so some degree by the process and delivery of brexit, or lack thereof.

Going by the people I get chatting to on the train, bus, workplace, friends and family - if we had PR or some variation of it, the vote could go approx one quarter labour, one quarter tory, one quarter UKIP, and one quarter SNP+lib dem and fringe parties.

I wouldn't rule out your 2nd option. Labour does seem to be engaging the non-voters and is the fastest growing party in terms of membership in the country. Christ, I even heard people ringing up Vine on r2 (usually full of very right wing callers) to say they liked Corbyn.

Labour are gaining members, these are people who were going to vote labour anyway, as such it's useless. "

So the media would have us believe, but to be honest, they are so preposteroulsy biased against the Labour Party, that I think they have shot themselves in the foot, because most people can see through it.

I'm one of the disenfranchised, and I'd vote Labour on a "lesser of two evils" basis. I'd rather have gouged my eyes out with a spoon than voted New Labour.

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By *or Fox SakeCouple  over a year ago

Thornaby

Labour are dead as a party, as long as the Corbynistas are at the helm they won't win marginal seats. And that's what wins elections.

Corbyn can have all the "principles" he likes, they are worthless without power.

Conservative party will walk the next election, labour based on fabian society predictions could be as low as 140 seats.

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By *imiUKMan  over a year ago

Newbury


"Labour are dead as a party, as long as the Corbynistas are at the helm they won't win marginal seats. And that's what wins elections.

Corbyn can have all the "principles" he likes, they are worthless without power.

Conservative party will walk the next election, labour based on fabian society predictions could be as low as 140 seats.

"

Yeah, not convinced about that at all.

I've not seen the establishment so frightened of a political party in my lifetime, and I don't think they would be as worried if they were no threat.

That alone, makes them worth my vote.

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By *mmabluTV/TS  over a year ago

upton wirral

If I could forcast this I would try to win the lottery first but it may be a new trump party led by Farage who knows

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By (user no longer on site) OP     over a year ago


"My pennies worth:

Under current first past the post - I think there are too many variables to say there'd be only one or two outcomes. And it really would be on how the GE is fought, if it's fought on identity politics ( remain vs leave) then the result would be poor, I imagine many people would actually be put off voting.

If it's fought on how a GE should be fought - on national policies, then it would be an interesting vote to see how the public turns out. Given that there is discontent in the North and low income areas with how the tories have imposed austerity, yet many people I have spoken to - even those I know who voted leave, wont vote UKIP, but at the same point labour is a marmite party atm...it'd be interesting to see who loses and gains the most.

So I'll try and break down the ways I can see it panning out, in no particular order.

Version one, Tory win due to divided society:

Basically what happened in the last GE, where labour lost scotland and had it's vote marginalised in some areas, thus meaning the tories could capitalise as their core and secondary voting areas remained untouched. However I'll say it will be slimmer for the tories this time.

I'd say Labour could fail to take anywhere back in scotland and struggle to fight back in wales. Some Northern and midland constituencies could go UKIP or libdem in areas where the EU referendum leave/remain vote was VERY strong in either direction.

Tories could a lose a few seats or have weaker voter turn out in the south or more pro-tory constituencies as a lot were more pro-EU, and the libdems might capitalise on this.

This can be said about UKIP in the southern labour seats and very conservative seats in the south.

Overall, Tories squeeze through by holding it together whilst labour suffers the most through a fragmented voter base.

Option 2, unprecedented labour win:

Most people probably spat out their tea as they laughed reading that but, the polls have been wrong a lot over the last 2 years - I doubt it, but wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong and either labour edges a win, or comfortably wins.

Reasoning for this? I know a lot of people - older and the same age as myself who voted leave, living in strong and marginal labour seats.

Their consensus is that despite voting leave they would not vote UKIP - the go to phrase is that beyond the referendum, what have UKIP done?

They don't have union backing, they don't seem to have a very strong investment based economic plan, they are touchy in many progressive issues eg, education, science and climate change, and Nutalls deleted comments about being glad blair opened the NHS to privatisation have damaged his standing with labour voters.

Basically a lot of people have told me, despite voting leave, they will most likely go labour again because they do not trust the other parties or they like the anti-austerity message corbyn preaches.

How could these lead to a win? Long shot, but perhaps the tory vote fractures, they are having a quiet civil war, many to the left of the party disheartened on the way the party is moving with brexit, and I'd go as far to say that some voters will vote UKIP to ensure their vision of brexit happens.

Basically their vote might fracture with the lib dems and UKIP splitting the vote.

A lot of people also think the North going UKIP is over played a bit, a bit of a media hype. They could be wrong, or they could be right.

I can't really see any other possible ways a snap GE would turn out.

I imagine under FPTP the lib dem and UKIP votes are too far spread out the amount to huge gains with either of them becoming the new opposition or winning. I do expect their votes to sore, as whether its a GE or snap GE, both will be determined so some degree by the process and delivery of brexit, or lack thereof.

Going by the people I get chatting to on the train, bus, workplace, friends and family - if we had PR or some variation of it, the vote could go approx one quarter labour, one quarter tory, one quarter UKIP, and one quarter SNP+lib dem and fringe parties.

I wouldn't rule out your 2nd option. Labour does seem to be engaging the non-voters and is the fastest growing party in terms of membership in the country. Christ, I even heard people ringing up Vine on r2 (usually full of very right wing callers) to say they liked Corbyn.

Labour are gaining members, these are people who were going to vote labour anyway, as such it's useless.

So the media would have us believe, but to be honest, they are so preposteroulsy biased against the Labour Party, that I think they have shot themselves in the foot, because most people can see through it.

I'm one of the disenfranchised, and I'd vote Labour on a "lesser of two evils" basis. I'd rather have gouged my eyes out with a spoon than voted New Labour. "

Most of the Press are Anti Labour but the BBC defiantly are not !

Left wing to Thier Core !

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By *imiUKMan  over a year ago

Newbury


"My pennies worth:

Under current first past the post - I think there are too many variables to say there'd be only one or two outcomes. And it really would be on how the GE is fought, if it's fought on identity politics ( remain vs leave) then the result would be poor, I imagine many people would actually be put off voting.

If it's fought on how a GE should be fought - on national policies, then it would be an interesting vote to see how the public turns out. Given that there is discontent in the North and low income areas with how the tories have imposed austerity, yet many people I have spoken to - even those I know who voted leave, wont vote UKIP, but at the same point labour is a marmite party atm...it'd be interesting to see who loses and gains the most.

So I'll try and break down the ways I can see it panning out, in no particular order.

Version one, Tory win due to divided society:

Basically what happened in the last GE, where labour lost scotland and had it's vote marginalised in some areas, thus meaning the tories could capitalise as their core and secondary voting areas remained untouched. However I'll say it will be slimmer for the tories this time.

I'd say Labour could fail to take anywhere back in scotland and struggle to fight back in wales. Some Northern and midland constituencies could go UKIP or libdem in areas where the EU referendum leave/remain vote was VERY strong in either direction.

Tories could a lose a few seats or have weaker voter turn out in the south or more pro-tory constituencies as a lot were more pro-EU, and the libdems might capitalise on this.

This can be said about UKIP in the southern labour seats and very conservative seats in the south.

Overall, Tories squeeze through by holding it together whilst labour suffers the most through a fragmented voter base.

Option 2, unprecedented labour win:

Most people probably spat out their tea as they laughed reading that but, the polls have been wrong a lot over the last 2 years - I doubt it, but wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong and either labour edges a win, or comfortably wins.

Reasoning for this? I know a lot of people - older and the same age as myself who voted leave, living in strong and marginal labour seats.

Their consensus is that despite voting leave they would not vote UKIP - the go to phrase is that beyond the referendum, what have UKIP done?

They don't have union backing, they don't seem to have a very strong investment based economic plan, they are touchy in many progressive issues eg, education, science and climate change, and Nutalls deleted comments about being glad blair opened the NHS to privatisation have damaged his standing with labour voters.

Basically a lot of people have told me, despite voting leave, they will most likely go labour again because they do not trust the other parties or they like the anti-austerity message corbyn preaches.

How could these lead to a win? Long shot, but perhaps the tory vote fractures, they are having a quiet civil war, many to the left of the party disheartened on the way the party is moving with brexit, and I'd go as far to say that some voters will vote UKIP to ensure their vision of brexit happens.

Basically their vote might fracture with the lib dems and UKIP splitting the vote.

A lot of people also think the North going UKIP is over played a bit, a bit of a media hype. They could be wrong, or they could be right.

I can't really see any other possible ways a snap GE would turn out.

I imagine under FPTP the lib dem and UKIP votes are too far spread out the amount to huge gains with either of them becoming the new opposition or winning. I do expect their votes to sore, as whether its a GE or snap GE, both will be determined so some degree by the process and delivery of brexit, or lack thereof.

Going by the people I get chatting to on the train, bus, workplace, friends and family - if we had PR or some variation of it, the vote could go approx one quarter labour, one quarter tory, one quarter UKIP, and one quarter SNP+lib dem and fringe parties.

I wouldn't rule out your 2nd option. Labour does seem to be engaging the non-voters and is the fastest growing party in terms of membership in the country. Christ, I even heard people ringing up Vine on r2 (usually full of very right wing callers) to say they liked Corbyn.

Labour are gaining members, these are people who were going to vote labour anyway, as such it's useless.

So the media would have us believe, but to be honest, they are so preposteroulsy biased against the Labour Party, that I think they have shot themselves in the foot, because most people can see through it.

I'm one of the disenfranchised, and I'd vote Labour on a "lesser of two evils" basis. I'd rather have gouged my eyes out with a spoon than voted New Labour.

Most of the Press are Anti Labour but the BBC defiantly are not !

Left wing to Thier Core !"

Don't be weird.

The BBC broadly support whoever the party in power is, because that is where their finding is coming from - they are the news organ of the status quo.

This seems to evade a lot of otherwise sensible people on the left and the right - the left say that the BBC is Tory and the Right say that it is Left wing.

It is neither.

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By (user no longer on site) OP     over a year ago

No Way !

They are totally anti Right !

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By *imiUKMan  over a year ago

Newbury


"No Way !

They are totally anti Right !"

Really?

Explain their failure to cover popular protest over the last couple of years. Tens of thousands out on anti-austerity marches, total radio silence from the press, incuding the beeb.

Preservation of the status quo.

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By *mmabluTV/TS  over a year ago

upton wirral


"No Way !

They are totally anti Right !"

No they are slightly to the left but not like Corbyn the BBC is more Blairite I would say

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By *avidnsa69Man  over a year ago

Essex


"No Way !

They are totally anti Right !"

I wish they were and then we would be spared the sight and sound of morons like Farage and Nuttall on our screens

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By *or Fox SakeCouple  over a year ago

Thornaby


"Labour are dead as a party, as long as the Corbynistas are at the helm they won't win marginal seats. And that's what wins elections.

Corbyn can have all the "principles" he likes, they are worthless without power.

Conservative party will walk the next election, labour based on fabian society predictions could be as low as 140 seats.

Yeah, not convinced about that at all.

I've not seen the establishment so frightened of a political party in my lifetime, and I don't think they would be as worried if they were no threat.

That alone, makes them worth my vote. "

Corbyn is as much part of the "establishment" as a high Court judge or a civil servant.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"No Way !

They are totally anti Right !No they are slightly to the left but not like Corbyn the BBC is more Blairite I would say"

I thought that too. But being status quo is a good thought. Their portrayal of May is held high. They're happy to report Corbyn's mistakes or conflicts. Or in fact any opposing parties more. I wonder what news is like during labour times.

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By *illwill69uMan  over a year ago

moston

I find things very amusing (NOT), when people are asked if TC is safe to be PM they say 'NO!'

But if asked if they support his policies without knowing they are JC's policies they invariably say yes (including life long tory voters). I wonder at what point the great British public will work out that they have been conned by the tory (thief/highway man) CONservite party?

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By *imiUKMan  over a year ago

Newbury


"I find things very amusing (NOT), when people are asked if TC is safe to be PM they say 'NO!'

But if asked if they support his policies without knowing they are JC's policies they invariably say yes (including life long tory voters). I wonder at what point the great British public will work out that they have been conned by the tory (thief/highway man) CONservite party?"

I think that the fact that the sphere of influence of "traditional" news outlets (Papers, TV news) is waning in favour of internet/social media is making it harder for whitewashes to take place....

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By (user no longer on site) OP     over a year ago

Sorry to be thick Who is T C ?

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"Sorry to be thick Who is T C ?"

you mean you don't know!!!! wtf.

ask any of these guys listed and they will tell you

•Benny the Ball.

•Choo-Choo. ...

•Brain. ...

•Fancy-Fancy. ...

•Spook. ...

•Officer Charlie Dibble. ...

•Griswald.

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By *ercuryMan  over a year ago

Grantham


"Sorry to be thick Who is T C ?

you mean you don't know!!!! wtf.

ask any of these guys listed and they will tell you

•Benny the Ball.

•Choo-Choo. ...

•Brain. ...

•Fancy-Fancy. ...

•Spook. ...

•Officer Charlie Dibble. ...

•Griswald.

"

Wasn't he known as BC in the USA, due to TC being a brand of pet food?

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