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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Just a thought here...when do you think there will be a General Election called as i dont think May has long left seen as the mess were in with the brexit talk going so badly on our part...i'm predicting October |
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"Just a thought here...when do you think there will be a General Election called as i dont think May has long left seen as the mess were in with the brexit talk going so badly on our part...i'm predicting October "
No. Too soon. It's conference season. The Tories need to meet at the conference to make allegencies , tactics and plans. Besides, Autumn and winter is not traditionally voting seasons. The cold and dark nights discourage voters from going to the ballot box. I'd say it would be in the spring... Possibly May. No pun intended. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The tories will need to replace may to win the next election.So next june is my guess.They wont go to the polls with her in charge unless their feeling suicidal.  |
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"Spring 2022 will when the next GE Will be."
 Agree, this government will last a full 5 year term with the backing of the DUP. Theresa May will see through the Brexit negotiations then she will be gone sometime in the middle of March 2019. A new Tory leader will take over from her then and be given time to bed in before the election in 2022. |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
There will not be an election until 2022 according to the fixed term Parliament Act.
That could change with a vote of no confidence or PM May herself offering a dissolution of Parliament and Labour supporting it.
The odds of a vote of no confidence before March 2019 are diminishing all the time because of the lack of meaningful progress in the Brexit talks and the seemingly chaotic approach to the talks by David Davis.
Mrs May could herself have an epiphany moment when the momentousness of Brexit finally dawns on her. She could just decide that she does not want to be the Captain of the Conservative Government that is consigning the UK to decades of economic problems. |
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"Spring 2022 will when the next GE Will be.
Agree, this government will last a full 5 year term with the backing of the DUP. Theresa May will see through the Brexit negotiations then she will be gone sometime in the middle of March 2019. A new Tory leader will take over from her then and be given time to bed in before the election in 2022. "
So says the expert listen people |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Spring 2022 will when the next GE Will be.
Agree, this government will last a full 5 year term with the backing of the DUP. Theresa May will see through the Brexit negotiations then she will be gone sometime in the middle of March 2019. A new Tory leader will take over from her then and be given time to bed in before the election in 2022.
So says the expert listen people "
Oh he spoke on it...was he like strong and stable when he did...or was he weak and wobbly when found out  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I don't think they will risk it till the full term or Corbyn has been replaced .
It's got to be the biggest turn around in political history !
I think think they are now terrified he could win !
And I suspect he could .
Tho if they do they'll make sure the students are at home or backpacking lol |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Spring 2022 will when the next GE Will be.
Agree, this government will last a full 5 year term with the backing of the DUP. Theresa May will see through the Brexit negotiations then she will be gone sometime in the middle of March 2019. A new Tory leader will take over from her then and be given time to bed in before the election in 2022. "
Generally agree. May will remain figurehead until Brexit negotiations are concluded, I get the impression her wings have already been clipped. Then a new leader will be chosen, followed by an election. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Spring 2022 will when the next GE Will be.
Agree, this government will last a full 5 year term with the backing of the DUP. Theresa May will see through the Brexit negotiations then she will be gone sometime in the middle of March 2019. A new Tory leader will take over from her then and be given time to bed in before the election in 2022.
Generally agree. May will remain figurehead until Brexit negotiations are concluded, I get the impression her wings have already been clipped. Then a new leader will be chosen, followed by an election."
She will be goneif not this year by May next year...in fact once the brexit failures come out JC will be in power...i know some of you find that hard to stomach...but you might just have to whistle |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Too early and too much up in the air to accurately estimate.
Here's my thoughts though:
If an early GE is called, it wont be this year, or very unlikely. Many in the tory party know that they were punished by constituencies for making the 'brexit mandate election' about domestic policies (not necessarily bad), and then putting forward very traditional right-wig policies which would never attract the labour voters who voted brexit, in these areas.
Additionally they were punished by more pro-remain, or less leave focused seats which are more tory inclined. This manifested itself in some southern seats going labour, and a general swing to labour in seats which usually don't see this. This is largely because pensioners voted against the tories for backstabbing them, and because many seats knew that the lib dems wont become a opposition party, so a lot of people cut their losses and voted against 'tory brexit' for a potential 'norway style brexit'.
In short the tory part wont risk looking arrogant and bringing forward the vote this year. They would likely be punished for looking full of themselves even if they got someone like Mogg to stand in. I imagine a lot of people would view it as the tory party asking for a 'redo'. Not very strong and stable.
As for following this it really depends.
How many times will the tories be forced back on domestic policies?
How many times will be have something similar to the N.I issue?
Will there be any national catastrophes linked to tory party policy?
Far more importantly, how quickly can the two clear factions in the tory party - pro/against brexit, bring forward new leaders with potentially likeable political ideas?
I have no question that once the tory party finds two new candidates or more, then they will work at getting May out. The party is anything if adaptable, even if it means being very Darwinian about who leads them. |
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