FabSwingers.com > Forums > Politics > 4th September 2019
4th September 2019
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By *ercury OP Man
over a year ago
Grantham |
Now Jeremy Corbyn has put forward some proposals on how he wants to proceed on a "no confidence" vote in order to stop a "no deal" Brexit,it seems likely that the 4th of September will be the date that matters come to a head.
Some of his ideas have merit, others less so. He wants a GE before any referendum, which the Liberals have rejected. He needs the support of some Conservative rebels, and a hope that all his Labour MPs stick with him.
Conference season looks to be exciting this year, the atmosphere is building but he will only get one go at this. He needs to get it right. |
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By *estivalMan
over a year ago
borehamwood |
watching most mp.s on tv last night and this morning he aint got a hope in hell if he keeps saying he will lead an intrim goverment.all i can say when there is another election is all the splitters are gona be out of jobs and a big lump of torys will be deselected along with a few labour m.ps aswell and the lib dems will be back down to there original numbers after all there new flip flopping m.ps are booted out by there voters |
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The buzz he originally had around him has gone. When he became leader people on here were jumping over themselves to say he was the new messiah.
He no longer looks like he can make real change and his dithering has blown the chance of stopping Brexit.
He should be put out to pasture. His reign will go down as ineffectual at best. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
i read his letter this morning.
It's a starter for 10, the leader of the Opposition trying to lead the Opposition.
In reality, only a backbench candidate could succeed with this idea - a Ken Clarke or an Yvette Cooper, for instance.
There clearly is no majority in Parliament for a hard Brexit. But what is there a majority for?
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By *ercury OP Man
over a year ago
Grantham |
"i read his letter this morning.
It's a starter for 10, the leader of the Opposition trying to lead the Opposition.
In reality, only a backbench candidate could succeed with this idea - a Ken Clarke or an Yvette Cooper, for instance.
There clearly is no majority in Parliament for a hard Brexit. But what is there a majority for?
"
I tend to agree. Jeremy Corbyn is more interested in keeping the Labour Party "hard left", than trying to defeat the Conservatives.
The idea of replacing him was floated on BBC news this morning to Rebecca Long Bailey, who flustered around the question. I agree that Yvette Cooper would make a good choice but let's see how it plays out. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
The clock is certainly ticking.
Right now, the UK is still in the realms of Article 50.
That gives us the status of a member of the EU and opportunities to influence the direction of relations from the inside.
Assuming we leave on October 31, Article 50 no longer applies.
None of the treaties apply.
The UK is a "third country".
No fast-track under Article 50 to anything whatsoever.
Any future discussion comes under Article 218, which sets out the process for the EU entering into any sort of agreement with a third country.
At the moment, we are knocking on the door from the inside trying to leave.
After October 31, we are knocking on the door from the outside asking to get in.
The dynamics of these two things are very different.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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We will be negotiating two significant trade agreements with two parties who dwarf us.
If the argimeng is "the eu need us more than we need them" I'm guessing the US have the upper hand in that negotiation.
And im not sure how the eu FTA can be better than what we have now.
So it feels we are, if I use the US usual logic, on for a loser.
Hmmm. |
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
corbyn has been anti eu all his political career he really wants to leave but wants the tories to get the blame if it goes wrong.He knows he wont get the backing if he is in charge of an interim government so he makes all the right noises to keep the party happy and can say i tried but the lib/dems wouldnt back me.If he really wanted to thwart government he would let someone else take control.So its a clever ploy by him to look like hes doing what the party want and to getting exactly what he wants.How people haven't seen through him by now amazes me.He put no effort into the remain campaign as has always been anti eu. |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"corbyn has been anti eu all his political career he really wants to leave but wants the tories to get the blame if it goes wrong.He knows he wont get the backing if he is in charge of an interim government so he makes all the right noises to keep the party happy and can say i tried but the lib/dems wouldnt back me.If he really wanted to thwart government he would let someone else take control.So its a clever ploy by him to look like hes doing what the party want and to getting exactly what he wants.How people haven't seen through him by now amazes me.He put no effort into the remain campaign as has always been anti eu. "
Very true Corbyn is a nasty hypocrical creep to be polite about about him
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I think corbyn as anti parts of eu. But realises a full hard Brexit is damaging. And the damage hits the poorest first.
I suspect his best ploy is to promise to postpone brexit, pass a motion that any decision has public confirmation and then have a GE.
Of course the new government can't be bound by the confirmation motion, but would have to reverse it.
And any party manifesto should say if they were doing this or not. |
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"I think corbyn as anti parts of eu. But realises a full hard Brexit is damaging. And the damage hits the poorest first.
I suspect his best ploy is to promise to postpone brexit, pass a motion that any decision has public confirmation and then have a GE.
Of course the new government can't be bound by the confirmation motion, but would have to reverse it.
And any party manifesto should say if they were doing this or not. "
Another vote and on the agreement how do you think thats going to go? there will be another 3 years of people either trying to get it through or trying to overturn it.More uncertainty for business and years of lack of investment. |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"I think corbyn as anti parts of eu. But realises a full hard Brexit is damaging. And the damage hits the poorest first.
I suspect his best ploy is to promise to postpone brexit, pass a motion that any decision has public confirmation and then have a GE.
Of course the new government can't be bound by the confirmation motion, but would have to reverse it.
And any party manifesto should say if they were doing this or not. "
Could be something in what you say,if so shows a man who wants power at any cost,a nasty little hypocrite |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think corbyn as anti parts of eu. But realises a full hard Brexit is damaging. And the damage hits the poorest first.
I suspect his best ploy is to promise to postpone brexit, pass a motion that any decision has public confirmation and then have a GE.
Of course the new government can't be bound by the confirmation motion, but would have to reverse it.
And any party manifesto should say if they were doing this or not. Another vote and on the agreement how do you think thats going to go? there will be another 3 years of people either trying to get it through or trying to overturn it.More uncertainty for business and years of lack of investment. "
A legally binding confirmation vote of *insert deal here* versus remain is easy.
Ideally you'd put a date (say a year) for this to take place.
Whoever is in power puts whatever eu agreed deal they have (or if no new one, decide on no deal, or existing deal) on the table and go.
The uncertainty isn't ideal. But from most things I have seen, it's not a case of businesses simply not knowing which path we are taking which is their biggest concern, it's the fact one path is bad. My guess is they'd take more uncertainty in the short-term if it avoids no deal. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"Could be something in what you say,if so shows a man who wants power at any cost,a nasty little hypocrite"
And Boris Johnson is any different?
The difference is this:
- Corbyn wants to make a difference to the people on the margins
- Johnson wants to make a difference to himself
One is better at communication than the other.
Basically. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"I think corbyn as anti parts of eu. But realises a full hard Brexit is damaging. And the damage hits the poorest first.
I suspect his best ploy is to promise to postpone brexit, pass a motion that any decision has public confirmation and then have a GE.
Of course the new government can't be bound by the confirmation motion, but would have to reverse it.
And any party manifesto should say if they were doing this or not. Another vote and on the agreement how do you think thats going to go? there will be another 3 years of people either trying to get it through or trying to overturn it.More uncertainty for business and years of lack of investment.
A legally binding confirmation vote of *insert deal here* versus remain is easy.
Ideally you'd put a date (say a year) for this to take place.
Whoever is in power puts whatever eu agreed deal they have (or if no new one, decide on no deal, or existing deal) on the table and go.
The uncertainty isn't ideal. But from most things I have seen, it's not a case of businesses simply not knowing which path we are taking which is their biggest concern, it's the fact one path is bad. My guess is they'd take more uncertainty in the short-term if it avoids no deal. "
Sorry but that post shows you have no idea how businesses think, any decision is better than no decision, some think no deal will be bad some dont, look up the percent of gdp that actually involves us exporting stuff, that will show why many arent bothered how we leave but just want it sorted ASAP, if things go against you in business because of an outside influence you can change course to take advantage of the opportunities that always present themselves, when as now you dont know which way the land lies you just want certainty no yet more confusion |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"Could be something in what you say,if so shows a man who wants power at any cost,a nasty little hypocrite
And Boris Johnson is any different?
The difference is this:
- Corbyn wants to make a difference to the people on the margins
- Johnson wants to make a difference to himself
One is better at communication than the other.
Basically."
I disagree 100% and if you believe good things about Corbyn you are very very gullable |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
i think they will win the no confidence vote.... but then the hard work begins... I still don't think it will be corbyn that will be the head of this "unity" government....
in a way it sets up for Corbyn to look Prime Ministerial in a big long speech by at the end stepping aside for "the good of the country"......
I think it will be someone like Harriet Harman in the end |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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If most business don't care how we leave, you wonder why not knowing affects them.they should carry on regardless because they don't care. It doesn't touch them.
Imo, most business care because even if they don't export, they are to some extent affectwd, most likely from the fact they use goods which have been partly imported.
Truth is, businesses live in a world of uncertainty. They live in a world where we may swing from tory governments to Labour governments. Interest rates may go up, or down. Rents may change. People may leave.
I base my opinion on both my own experience. And that of trade groups. Other than a handful of people, I've not seen vast swathes of business say just crack on with no deal. It's the mot knowing we have price increase which is hurting us most.
But it may be there is a silent majority, as measured by people employed, or output created. I do wonder why they aren't being vocal tho. |
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"corbyn has been anti eu all his political career he really wants to leave but wants the tories to get the blame if it goes wrong.He knows he wont get the backing if he is in charge of an interim government so he makes all the right noises to keep the party happy and can say i tried but the lib/dems wouldnt back me.If he really wanted to thwart government he would let someone else take control.So its a clever ploy by him to look like hes doing what the party want and to getting exactly what he wants.How people haven't seen through him by now amazes me.He put no effort into the remain campaign as has always been anti eu. "
Without wanting to jump on the anti Corbyn band wagon I do actually agree with what you're saying. I personally think there is little to no chance of a Unity Government being formed with Corbyn at the head. Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer, Kenneth Clarke or Caroline Lucas would be a better choice. Another alternative, which seems to have been overlooked, is that the PM does not actually have to sit in the House Of Commons, they only have to sit in Parliament and that includes the House Of Lords too. So how about David Steel, Michael Heseltine or even Betty Boothroyd? |
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"Could be something in what you say,if so shows a man who wants power at any cost,a nasty little hypocrite
And Boris Johnson is any different?
The difference is this:
- Corbyn wants to make a difference to the people on the margins
- Johnson wants to make a difference to himself
One is better at communication than the other.
Basically.I disagree 100% and if you believe good things about Corbyn you are very very gullable"
I also 100% disagree with Sara's view of Corbyn but I see it as no more gullible than most BREXITER's gullibility towards Johnson; in fact I see it as a lot less so.
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"I think corbyn as anti parts of eu. But realises a full hard Brexit is damaging. And the damage hits the poorest first.
I suspect his best ploy is to promise to postpone brexit, pass a motion that any decision has public confirmation and then have a GE.
Of course the new government can't be bound by the confirmation motion, but would have to reverse it.
And any party manifesto should say if they were doing this or not. Another vote and on the agreement how do you think thats going to go? there will be another 3 years of people either trying to get it through or trying to overturn it.More uncertainty for business and years of lack of investment.
A legally binding confirmation vote of *insert deal here* versus remain is easy.
Ideally you'd put a date (say a year) for this to take place.
Whoever is in power puts whatever eu agreed deal they have (or if no new one, decide on no deal, or existing deal) on the table and go.
The uncertainty isn't ideal. But from most things I have seen, it's not a case of businesses simply not knowing which path we are taking which is their biggest concern, it's the fact one8 path is bad. My guess is they'd take more uncertainty in the short-term if it avoids no deal.
Sorry but that post shows you have no idea how businesses think, any decision is better than no decision, some think no deal will be bad some dont, look up the percent of gdp that actually involves us exporting stuff, that will show why many arent bothered how we leave but just want it sorted ASAP, if things go against you in business because of an outside influence you can change course to take advantage of the opportunities that always present themselves, when as now you dont know which way the land lies you just want certainty no yet more confusion"
Why don't you tell us what the percent of gdp that actually involves us exporting stuff is and where you sourced in from? I've seen various estimates of the percentage of GDP effected by EU trade quoted as low as 5% and as high as 25%.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I think corbyn as anti parts of eu. But realises a full hard Brexit is damaging. And the damage hits the poorest first.
I suspect his best ploy is to promise to postpone brexit, pass a motion that any decision has public confirmation and then have a GE.
Of course the new government can't be bound by the confirmation motion, but would have to reverse it.
And any party manifesto should say if they were doing this or not. Another vote and on the agreement how do you think thats going to go? there will be another 3 years of people either trying to get it through or trying to overturn it.More uncertainty for business and years of lack of investment.
A legally binding confirmation vote of *insert deal here* versus remain is easy.
Ideally you'd put a date (say a year) for this to take place.
Whoever is in power puts whatever eu agreed deal they have (or if no new one, decide on no deal, or existing deal) on the table and go.
The uncertainty isn't ideal. But from most things I have seen, it's not a case of businesses simply not knowing which path we are taking which is their biggest concern, it's the fact one8 path is bad. My guess is they'd take more uncertainty in the short-term if it avoids no deal.
Sorry but that post shows you have no idea how businesses think, any decision is better than no decision, some think no deal will be bad some dont, look up the percent of gdp that actually involves us exporting stuff, that will show why many arent bothered how we leave but just want it sorted ASAP, if things go against you in business because of an outside influence you can change course to take advantage of the opportunities that always present themselves, when as now you dont know which way the land lies you just want certainty no yet more confusion
Why don't you tell us what the percent of gdp that actually involves us exporting stuff is and where you sourced in from? I've seen various estimates of the percentage of GDP effected by EU trade quoted as low as 5% and as high as 25%.
"
Full facts says exports to eu are 13% of UK gdp. That's goods and services.
EU exports to uk are 4% of theirs. |
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"I think corbyn as anti parts of eu. But realises a full hard Brexit is damaging. And the damage hits the poorest first.
I suspect his best ploy is to promise to postpone brexit, pass a motion that any decision has public confirmation and then have a GE.
Of course the new government can't be bound by the confirmation motion, but would have to reverse it.
And any party manifesto should say if they were doing this or not. Another vote and on the agreement how do you think thats going to go? there will be another 3 years of people either trying to get it through or trying to overturn it.More uncertainty for business and years of lack of investment.
A legally binding confirmation vote of *insert deal here* versus remain is easy.
Ideally you'd put a date (say a year) for this to take place.
Whoever is in power puts whatever eu agreed deal they have (or if no new one, decide on no deal, or existing deal) on the table and go.
The uncertainty isn't ideal. But from most things I have seen, it's not a case of businesses simply not knowing which path we are taking which is their biggest concern, it's the fact one8 path is bad. My guess is they'd take more uncertainty in the short-term if it avoids no deal.
Sorry but that post shows you have no idea how businesses think, any decision is better than no decision, some think no deal will be bad some dont, look up the percent of gdp that actually involves us exporting stuff, that will show why many arent bothered how we leave but just want it sorted ASAP, if things go against you in business because of an outside influence you can change course to take advantage of the opportunities that always present themselves, when as now you dont know which way the land lies you just want certainty no yet more confusion
Why don't you tell us what the percent of gdp that actually involves us exporting stuff is and where you sourced in from? I've seen various estimates of the percentage of GDP effected by EU trade quoted as low as 5% and as high as 25%.
Full facts says exports to eu are 13% of UK gdp. That's goods and services.
EU exports to uk are 4% of theirs. "
Yes that looks a big gap when you lump the eu in as one country but its not, it will affect some countries a lot more than others. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
Which ones should we be looking at?
Iirc none of Germany, France, Italy or Spain exported more than 10% of their exports to the UK.
So as a % of gdp you can take that down a lot further.
Even ireland only has 11. 4% of exports going to uk. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"
Sorry but that post shows you have no idea how businesses think, any decision is better than no decision, some think no deal will be bad some dont, look up the percent of gdp that actually involves us exporting stuff, that will show why many arent bothered how we leave but just want it sorted ASAP, if things go against you in business because of an outside influence you can change course to take advantage of the opportunities that always present themselves, when as now you dont know which way the land lies you just want certainty no yet more confusion
Why don't you tell us what the percent of gdp that actually involves us exporting stuff is and where you sourced in from? I've seen various estimates of the percentage of GDP effected by EU trade quoted as low as 5% and as high as 25%.
Full facts says exports to eu are 13% of UK gdp. That's goods and services.
EU exports to uk are 4% of theirs. "
If that figure is correct and to be fair its hard to be totally accurate and full fact claim that 8% of businesses export to the EU athough the Gov say aroud 5% its no wonder that most businesses aarrent that bothered how we leave but want us to just get on with it even in a so called no deal brexit gdp would not fall by the amounts some leavers claim, even the most ardent remainers have never claimed trade will stop, many goods have very little tariff, the thing all businesses want is to know the details now not in another year or three, we have to plan investments and how we need to adapt,you have said that there is change when the government changes but they are normally pretty minor and have a small effect, to be fair I believe that in most sectors a no deal brexit will soon settle down as those in business carry on doing what they did before, its not tariffs that are going to be an on going issue its non tariff barriers that may get put up to block our exports to the EU that MAY be the problem |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
Most businesses don't export. But then again most businesses are small. I think it's a risk of upsetting the way that 15ish% of all business is done especially when we're measuring growth in tenths of a percent.
Maybe some don't think tarriffs, frictional costs, and regulations won't get in the way of trade. But conventional wisdom seems to suggest tade arrangements are a good thing, at least in practice.
And while most business don't export, I wonder how many are part of a wider supply chain. When a large company closes, you often see something which suggests the overall impact is more than just the factory closing. The local cafes and shops to our Honda plant don't export. Yet care. (note: this is an example of closures having wider impacts. Not opening the Honda is because of brexit or not argument!) |
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"House of Commons Library
Statistics on UK-EU trade
Published Wednesday, July 24, 2019
This note provides some basic statistics on the UK's trade with the EU.
Jump to full report
This note provides basic figures on UK trade with the EU. The attached Excel spreadsheet (see under Supporting documents) allows for easy access and presentation of detailed 2018 data on UK trade with indiviual EU member states, as well as trade trends between 1999 and 2018.
Main points:
•The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports)."
We import £56 billion more than we export.
That's a lot of business that EU countries don't want to put in jeopardy.
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
""House of Commons Library
Statistics on UK-EU trade
Published Wednesday, July 24, 2019
This note provides some basic statistics on the UK's trade with the EU.
Jump to full report
This note provides basic figures on UK trade with the EU. The attached Excel spreadsheet (see under Supporting documents) allows for easy access and presentation of detailed 2018 data on UK trade with indiviual EU member states, as well as trade trends between 1999 and 2018.
Main points:
•The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports)."
We import £56 billion more than we export.
That's a lot of business that EU countries don't want to put in jeopardy.
"
Nice post but you know you will get the standard reply dont you?  |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"
That's a lot of business that EU countries don't want to put in jeopardy.
"
That's correct.
But here in Britain we neglect something even more important to them than that.
The single market of the EU 27+4.
That is a much more important market to them than the UK.
Give terms to the UK on the outside that appear better than a country can get on the inside and the single market is finished.
Basically.
I really thought the cakeism concept had been shredded, but it keeps coming back to life.
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Divide and conquer still in play. I don't think a leadership change is realistic at this point and would add further uncertainty for everyone. The opposition party and leader should be supported in full, by any other party or MP who is 100% committed to preventing a no deal EU exit. If this is their priority focus in the short term, they should only attend to this. Beware wolves in sheep's clothing.
The referendum was based explicitly on having a departure that excluded being without a deal. Boris is not actively pursuing a deal with the EU.
With this mess, limited time, deceit etc, parliament should be sitting now, with conference season halted. The fact that Johnson has not cancelled summer recess |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
""House of Commons Library
Statistics on UK-EU trade
Published Wednesday, July 24, 2019
This note provides some basic statistics on the UK's trade with the EU.
Jump to full report
This note provides basic figures on UK trade with the EU. The attached Excel spreadsheet (see under Supporting documents) allows for easy access and presentation of detailed 2018 data on UK trade with indiviual EU member states, as well as trade trends between 1999 and 2018.
Main points:
•The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports)."
We import £56 billion more than we export.
That's a lot of business that EU countries don't want to put in jeopardy.
Nice post but you know you will get the standard reply dont you? "
It is a lot of businesses. No one is denying no deal will cause some eu companies pain.
Just not as much as us. They're losing a finger. We're losing the whole hand.
At a country level, some eu countries may be losing a few fingers. I've yet to see anything that any one country has more on the line than us. Be that as a percentage of exports or percentage of gdp.
So yes, stock answer to the same stock point of argument.
They have more chips on the table. And a lot more money left in their pocket.
Otherwise I think the argument is we need a trade deal with Egypt and Mexico and Albania more than they need us.
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"Most businesses don't export. But then again most businesses are small. I think it's a risk of upsetting the way that 15ish% of all business is done especially when we're measuring growth in tenths of a percent.
Maybe some don't think tarriffs, frictional costs, and regulations won't get in the way of trade. But conventional wisdom seems to suggest tade arrangements are a good thing, at least in practice.
And while most business don't export, I wonder how many are part of a wider supply chain. When a large company closes, you often see something which suggests the overall impact is more than just the factory closing. The local cafes and shops to our Honda plant don't export. Yet care. (note: this is an example of closures having wider impacts. Not opening the Honda is because of brexit or not argument!) "
I would agree that having a deal makes life easier, its the cost of that deal which I think is the real discussion point, it could be argued that the billions we pay in each year net are similar to tariffs in cost to the country, IMVHO the cost of the EU to the UK, not only financially but politically and the end game of a united states of europe are far too high, I have said many times let all the countries in europe vote on going back to the common market of the 70's or full US of E and which ever side wins we accept and move on, not ths drip drip slide into it by stealth |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
That's a very British view.
It is not a European view.
"Ever closer union" has been the core tenet since day one in the 1950s.
A European Army was mooted first in the 1950s.
A single currency was mooted first in 1969.
The idea the EU was only ever meant to be about trade is one peculiar to these islands.
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"That's a very British view.
It is not a European view.
"Ever closer union" has been the core tenet since day one in the 1950s.
A European Army was mooted first in the 1950s.
A single currency was mooted first in 1969.
The idea the EU was only ever meant to be about trade is one peculiar to these islands.
"
Thats what we sold in the 70,s its just a common market. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Most businesses don't export. But then again most businesses are small. I think it's a risk of upsetting the way that 15ish% of all business is done especially when we're measuring growth in tenths of a percent.
Maybe some don't think tarriffs, frictional costs, and regulations won't get in the way of trade. But conventional wisdom seems to suggest tade arrangements are a good thing, at least in practice.
And while most business don't export, I wonder how many are part of a wider supply chain. When a large company closes, you often see something which suggests the overall impact is more than just the factory closing. The local cafes and shops to our Honda plant don't export. Yet care. (note: this is an example of closures having wider impacts. Not opening the Honda is because of brexit or not argument!)
I would agree that having a deal makes life easier, its the cost of that deal which I think is the real discussion point, it could be argued that the billions we pay in each year net are similar to tariffs in cost to the country, IMVHO the cost of the EU to the UK, not only financially but politically and the end game of a united states of europe are far too high, I have said many times let all the countries in europe vote on going back to the common market of the 70's or full US of E and which ever side wins we accept and move on, not ths drip drip slide into it by stealth"
I understand some people don't like the direction of travel. I'd personally not vote to cause problems today because there may be problems tomorrow.
But I do think the financial value of the eu is likely more than the cost. Our fee is something like 1.5% of taxes. 15% of businesses export to the eu. Many more rely on other business which import and export to the eu. It wouldn't take much of a shock to see tax income reduce by 1.5%.
And that's not factoring in how much we get back from the eu, in terms of farmer payments and grants etc.
Imo you can vote to control borders, vote to opt out of direction of travel, vote because you don't like the idea we may end up with a rule we don't like.
But I'm yet to be convinced this won't come at a cost. And imo this is where leave have been the most disingenuous. They will shout project fear etc, yet show next to nothing to explain why it won't happen, other than "they need us etc", point to an economist who is pro Brexit (but offers little in the way of economic analysis), or point to Minford and his colleagues. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"
I understand some people don't like the direction of travel. I'd personally not vote to cause problems today because there may be problems tomorrow.
But I do think the financial value of the eu is likely more than the cost. Our fee is something like 1.5% of taxes. 15% of businesses export to the eu. Many more rely on other business which import and export to the eu. It wouldn't take much of a shock to see tax income reduce by 1.5%.
And that's not factoring in how much we get back from the eu, in terms of farmer payments and grants etc.
Imo you can vote to control borders, vote to opt out of direction of travel, vote because you don't like the idea we may end up with a rule we don't like.
But I'm yet to be convinced this won't come at a cost. And imo this is where leave have been the most disingenuous. They will shout project fear etc, yet show next to nothing to explain why it won't happen, other than "they need us etc", point to an economist who is pro Brexit (but offers little in the way of economic analysis), or point to Minford and his colleagues. "
Its not 15% of businesses that export full fact claim its 8.
Im not claiming it will be like germany in the 30's but I bet millions of germans wished they had voted against hitler when they had the channce rather than he wouldnt become a tyrant, the easiest way to stop a problem is early not bury your head, look at all the issues remain claim will be hard to roll back when we leave just imagine how hard it would be when we have an eu army, single tax regime and more and more power i brussels, do you want to be part of the US of E or dont you think thats the end game |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"That's a very British view.
It is not a European view.
"Ever closer union" has been the core tenet since day one in the 1950s.
A European Army was mooted first in the 1950s.
A single currency was mooted first in 1969.
The idea the EU was only ever meant to be about trade is one peculiar to these islands.
Thats what we sold in the 70,s its just a common market."
I am too young, I did not vote
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
I understand some people don't like the direction of travel. I'd personally not vote to cause problems today because there may be problems tomorrow.
But I do think the financial value of the eu is likely more than the cost. Our fee is something like 1.5% of taxes. 15% of businesses export to the eu. Many more rely on other business which import and export to the eu. It wouldn't take much of a shock to see tax income reduce by 1.5%.
And that's not factoring in how much we get back from the eu, in terms of farmer payments and grants etc.
Imo you can vote to control borders, vote to opt out of direction of travel, vote because you don't like the idea we may end up with a rule we don't like.
But I'm yet to be convinced this won't come at a cost. And imo this is where leave have been the most disingenuous. They will shout project fear etc, yet show next to nothing to explain why it won't happen, other than "they need us etc", point to an economist who is pro Brexit (but offers little in the way of economic analysis), or point to Minford and his colleagues.
Its not 15% of businesses that export full fact claim its 8.
Im not claiming it will be like germany in the 30's but I bet millions of germans wished they had voted against hitler when they had the channce rather than he wouldnt become a tyrant, the easiest way to stop a problem is early not bury your head, look at all the issues remain claim will be hard to roll back when we leave just imagine how hard it would be when we have an eu army, single tax regime and more and more power i brussels, do you want to be part of the US of E or dont you think thats the end game"
15% of gdp. Imo a more sensible measure of what's at stake. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"
I understand some people don't like the direction of travel. I'd personally not vote to cause problems today because there may be problems tomorrow.
But I do think the financial value of the eu is likely more than the cost. Our fee is something like 1.5% of taxes. 15% of businesses export to the eu. Many more rely on other business which import and export to the eu. It wouldn't take much of a shock to see tax income reduce by 1.5%.
And that's not factoring in how much we get back from the eu, in terms of farmer payments and grants etc.
Imo you can vote to control borders, vote to opt out of direction of travel, vote because you don't like the idea we may end up with a rule we don't like.
But I'm yet to be convinced this won't come at a cost. And imo this is where leave have been the most disingenuous. They will shout project fear etc, yet show next to nothing to explain why it won't happen, other than "they need us etc", point to an economist who is pro Brexit (but offers little in the way of economic analysis), or point to Minford and his colleagues.
Its not 15% of businesses that export full fact claim its 8.
Im not claiming it will be like germany in the 30's but I bet millions of germans wished they had voted against hitler when they had the channce rather than he wouldnt become a tyrant, the easiest way to stop a problem is early not bury your head, look at all the issues remain claim will be hard to roll back when we leave just imagine how hard it would be when we have an eu army, single tax regime and more and more power i brussels, do you want to be part of the US of E or dont you think thats the end game
15% of gdp. Imo a more sensible measure of what's at stake. "
Well according to the eu(from th bbc report) we export 8% of gdp |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
I understand some people don't like the direction of travel. I'd personally not vote to cause problems today because there may be problems tomorrow.
But I do think the financial value of the eu is likely more than the cost. Our fee is something like 1.5% of taxes. 15% of businesses export to the eu. Many more rely on other business which import and export to the eu. It wouldn't take much of a shock to see tax income reduce by 1.5%.
And that's not factoring in how much we get back from the eu, in terms of farmer payments and grants etc.
Imo you can vote to control borders, vote to opt out of direction of travel, vote because you don't like the idea we may end up with a rule we don't like.
But I'm yet to be convinced this won't come at a cost. And imo this is where leave have been the most disingenuous. They will shout project fear etc, yet show next to nothing to explain why it won't happen, other than "they need us etc", point to an economist who is pro Brexit (but offers little in the way of economic analysis), or point to Minford and his colleagues.
Its not 15% of businesses that export full fact claim its 8.
Im not claiming it will be like germany in the 30's but I bet millions of germans wished they had voted against hitler when they had the channce rather than he wouldnt become a tyrant, the easiest way to stop a problem is early not bury your head, look at all the issues remain claim will be hard to roll back when we leave just imagine how hard it would be when we have an eu army, single tax regime and more and more power i brussels, do you want to be part of the US of E or dont you think thats the end game
15% of gdp. Imo a more sensible measure of what's at stake.
Well according to the eu(from th bbc report) we export 8% of gdp"
That's for goods. Services is 7.2%
(source BBC)
So 15 in total. |
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