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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Does the fact cases are going up mean its spreading.
Not necessarily. Look at the test positive percentage of tests taken.
April 7th 21.7% positive
May 7th 13.8% positive
June 7th 6.7% positive
July 7th 4.4% positive
Aug 7th 3% positive.
If you recall the early days of this outbreak the epidemiologists always said there were X times the number of cases in the community than were showing from the number of tests.
It's the test positive percentage rate we need to keep an eye on and maybe the fact it keeps dropping explains why the number of patients needing hospitalisation is still apparently falling.
Of course I could be totally wrong and someone can explain why. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Does the fact cases are going up mean its spreading.
Not necessarily. Look at the test positive percentage of tests taken.
April 7th 21.7% positive
May 7th 13.8% positive
June 7th 6.7% positive
July 7th 4.4% positive
Aug 7th 3% positive.
If you recall the early days of this outbreak the epidemiologists always said there were X times the number of cases in the community than were showing from the number of tests.
It's the test positive percentage rate we need to keep an eye on and maybe the fact it keeps dropping explains why the number of patients needing hospitalisation is still apparently falling.
Of course I could be totally wrong and someone can explain why."
***************************************
Excellent and quite true....!
Eva X |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine in Oxford has made exactly this point. If you search for Dr Carl Heneghan, from the CEBM, you will be able to read about it. "
I’ve been following Carl Heneghan from the start of this.  |
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"Does the fact cases are going up mean its spreading.
Not necessarily. Look at the test positive percentage of tests taken.
April 7th 21.7% positive
May 7th 13.8% positive
June 7th 6.7% positive
July 7th 4.4% positive
Aug 7th 3% positive.
If you recall the early days of this outbreak the epidemiologists always said there were X times the number of cases in the community than were showing from the number of tests.
It's the test positive percentage rate we need to keep an eye on and maybe the fact it keeps dropping explains why the number of patients needing hospitalisation is still apparently falling.
Of course I could be totally wrong and someone can explain why."
Absolutely, and it shows why the case fatality rate keeps falling. The true rate is somewhere between 0.6% and 1%. |
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"The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine in Oxford has made exactly this point. If you search for Dr Carl Heneghan, from the CEBM, you will be able to read about it.
I’ve been following Carl Heneghan from the start of this. "
That's a good move, in my opinion. His explanation of the interpretation rate of positive swab tests was publicised last week. |
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"Well said!!!
Its pity that Dildo Harding, Adolf Cummings and Joseph Johnson sont see it that way!!!"
Not sure why the abuse is needed. But do you think that the great news might be at least partly as a consequence of some of the behavioural changes that the bulk of us are observing?
I'm no massive fan of any of the names but sometimes they do good stuff too. |
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"Does the fact cases are going up mean its spreading.
Not necessarily. Look at the test positive percentage of tests taken.
April 7th 21.7% positive
May 7th 13.8% positive
June 7th 6.7% positive
July 7th 4.4% positive
Aug 7th 3% positive.
If you recall the early days of this outbreak the epidemiologists always said there were X times the number of cases in the community than were showing from the number of tests.
It's the test positive percentage rate we need to keep an eye on and maybe the fact it keeps dropping explains why the number of patients needing hospitalisation is still apparently falling.
Of course I could be totally wrong and someone can explain why."
I think you're mostly right and God knows we need some good news. Also I suspect because more asymptomatic people are being tested as a result of track and trace and testing being opened up to a wider audience. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine in Oxford has made exactly this point. If you search for Dr Carl Heneghan, from the CEBM, you will be able to read about it.
I’ve been following Carl Heneghan from the start of this.
That's a good move, in my opinion. His explanation of the interpretation rate of positive swab tests was publicised last week. "
Yes I saw that. It’s going to take me a while to get my head around that one  |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"Does the fact cases are going up mean its spreading.
Not necessarily. Look at the test positive percentage of tests taken.
April 7th 21.7% positive
May 7th 13.8% positive
June 7th 6.7% positive
July 7th 4.4% positive
Aug 7th 3% positive.
If you recall the early days of this outbreak the epidemiologists always said there were X times the number of cases in the community than were showing from the number of tests.
It's the test positive percentage rate we need to keep an eye on and maybe the fact it keeps dropping explains why the number of patients needing hospitalisation is still apparently falling.
Of course I could be totally wrong and someone can explain why."
Thankyou for therse figures |
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"No one have any input?"
Is it worth discussing when the data comes from a government that can’t count its own fingers?
Maybe a better measure is how many people you know who have been hospitalised with COVID or died from it. And how they got it.
Or how many less people are dying from everything else and why. Maybe the dropping hospitalisation rate has something to do with that |
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By *uboCouple
over a year ago
East kilbride |
"Well said!!!
Its pity that Dildo Harding, Adolf Cummings and Joseph Johnson sont see it that way!!!
I'm no massive fan of any of the names but sometimes they do good stuff too. "
Really ? Please enlighten us. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Well said!!!
Its pity that Dildo Harding, Adolf Cummings and Joseph Johnson sont see it that way!!!
I'm no massive fan of any of the names but sometimes they do good stuff too.
Really ? Please enlighten us."
Furlough |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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I’m not looking at getting into whether the government have done a good job so far or if you think it’s some conspiracy involving Bill Gates.
I’m just highlighting figures that are not published in the the same way that cases, hospitalisations and deaths " |
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"I’m not looking at getting into whether the government have done a good job so far or if you think it’s some conspiracy involving Bill Gates.
I’m just highlighting figures that are not published in the the same way that cases, hospitalisations and deaths ""
You can juggle percentages and statistt to prove or disprove anything you want.
Is 3% of the total recent tests a bigger number than 20% from April ?
The trend is up, it would be better if it was going down
Who knows, I'll wait for the movie |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"I’m not looking at getting into whether the government have done a good job so far or if you think it’s some conspiracy involving Bill Gates.
I’m just highlighting figures that are not published in the the same way that cases, hospitalisations and deaths "
You can juggle percentages and statistt to prove or disprove anything you want.
Is 3% of the total recent tests a bigger number than 20% from April ?
The trend is up, it would be better if it was going down
Who knows, I'll wait for the movie"
I would say the fact that the number of tests in recent weeks is a great deal more than in April but that the percentage of those tests resulting positive dropped from 20% to 3% a good thing . |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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In April most of the testing was in hospital and/or those showing or reporting symptoms...so obviously more positives.
They are now testing many more with no symptoms, track n trace etc. Workers in some sectors being tested and re-tested regularly.
The % positives are bound to go down.
As to how much this explains the drop is more speculation than fact.
It's the old adage of "lies damn lies and statistics" |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"In April most of the testing was in hospital and/or those showing or reporting symptoms...so obviously more positives.
They are now testing many more with no symptoms, track n trace etc. Workers in some sectors being tested and re-tested regularly.
The % positives are bound to go down.
As to how much this explains the drop is more speculation than fact.
It's the old adage of "lies damn lies and statistics""
True, however the drop from over 20% to under 3% is huge. For every 100 people tested 97 are negative in the community. Baring in mind that we are also doing track and trace (of sorts) and also more targeted testing in hotspots I still think this is promising. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Does the fact cases are going up mean its spreading.
Not necessarily. Look at the test positive percentage of tests taken.
April 7th 21.7% positive
May 7th 13.8% positive
June 7th 6.7% positive
July 7th 4.4% positive
Aug 7th 3% positive.
If you recall the early days of this outbreak the epidemiologists always said there were X times the number of cases in the community than were showing from the number of tests.
It's the test positive percentage rate we need to keep an eye on and maybe the fact it keeps dropping explains why the number of patients needing hospitalisation is still apparently falling.
Of course I could be totally wrong and someone can explain why."
the difficulty with this is previously only people with symptoms could be tested... so you were purposefully being tested because there was a higher likelihood you had it
now anyone can be teated so naturally the level of positives wont be as high as its not all “sure things”
but by the same thought more the more testing being done the more cases we are catching ... doesn’t necessarily mean there were not more cases previously just untested
long story short you cant look at one statistic in isolation to get a picture because there are too many other variables |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Does the fact cases are going up mean its spreading.
Not necessarily. Look at the test positive percentage of tests taken.
April 7th 21.7% positive
May 7th 13.8% positive
June 7th 6.7% positive
July 7th 4.4% positive
Aug 7th 3% positive.
If you recall the early days of this outbreak the epidemiologists always said there were X times the number of cases in the community than were showing from the number of tests.
It's the test positive percentage rate we need to keep an eye on and maybe the fact it keeps dropping explains why the number of patients needing hospitalisation is still apparently falling.
Of course I could be totally wrong and someone can explain why."
I think it’s a bit of a misleading set of figures to be honest. You need to factor in test failure rate in the early days but also the test subjects. Inpatients and medical staff are probably the majority of tests within those first months. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Does the fact cases are going up mean its spreading.
Not necessarily. Look at the test positive percentage of tests taken.
April 7th 21.7% positive
May 7th 13.8% positive
June 7th 6.7% positive
July 7th 4.4% positive
Aug 7th 3% positive.
If you recall the early days of this outbreak the epidemiologists always said there were X times the number of cases in the community than were showing from the number of tests.
It's the test positive percentage rate we need to keep an eye on and maybe the fact it keeps dropping explains why the number of patients needing hospitalisation is still apparently falling.
Of course I could be totally wrong and someone can explain why.
I think it’s a bit of a misleading set of figures to be honest. You need to factor in test failure rate in the early days but also the test subjects. Inpatients and medical staff are probably the majority of tests within those first months."
I'm aware of that. However it would be a sight more alarming if the posistivity percentages had remained in the high double figures once we started testing outside the original subjects.
The fact that it has reduced down to below 3% makes me question exactly how much asymptomatice cases there really are in the wider community. |
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