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Exponential growth
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There is nobody "struggling to understand" the problem. There are two groups in society, those who know there is a problem, and those who wilfully deny that there is a problem. Not all who recognise the problem are fully aware of exactly how the mathematics works, but they are all capable of looking at a picture of the curve showing the numbers going up faster and faster. And everyone in the country has lived through it happening once just a few months ago. Those who see the problem may disagree about tactics to deal with it, and many are in despair at the inadequacy of the leadership, but they do recognise that without control we could easily be stacking bodies in the street.
The ones who still do not see the problem are not struggling to understand it, there is no magic demonstration that will make them say "oh i see now, yes I'm going to change my behaviour". They are people in utter willful denial of reality. They are people who deny the very concepts of science and mathematics - while using smartphones, refrigerators, plastic, clean water, indoor plumbing... They do not see, they will not see, there is no point in trying to make them see.
And if they are the majority in society, or even the controlling minority in society, then perhaps it means that society has failed the Darwin test. |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"There is nobody "struggling to understand" the problem. There are two groups in society, those who know there is a problem, and those who wilfully deny that there is a problem. Not all who recognise the problem are fully aware of exactly how the mathematics works, but they are all capable of looking at a picture of the curve showing the numbers going up faster and faster. And everyone in the country has lived through it happening once just a few months ago. Those who see the problem may disagree about tactics to deal with it, and many are in despair at the inadequacy of the leadership, but they do recognise that without control we could easily be stacking bodies in the street.
The ones who still do not see the problem are not struggling to understand it, there is no magic demonstration that will make them say "oh i see now, yes I'm going to change my behaviour". They are people in utter willful denial of reality. They are people who deny the very concepts of science and mathematics - while using smartphones, refrigerators, plastic, clean water, indoor plumbing... They do not see, they will not see, there is no point in trying to make them see.
And if they are the majority in society, or even the controlling minority in society, then perhaps it means that society has failed the Darwin test."
Brilliant |
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"There is nobody "struggling to understand" the problem. There are two groups in society, those who know there is a problem, and those who wilfully deny that there is a problem. Not all who recognise the problem are fully aware of exactly how the mathematics works, but they are all capable of looking at a picture of the curve showing the numbers going up faster and faster. And everyone in the country has lived through it happening once just a few months ago. Those who see the problem may disagree about tactics to deal with it, and many are in despair at the inadequacy of the leadership, but they do recognise that without control we could easily be stacking bodies in the street.
The ones who still do not see the problem are not struggling to understand it, there is no magic demonstration that will make them say "oh i see now, yes I'm going to change my behaviour". They are people in utter willful denial of reality. They are people who deny the very concepts of science and mathematics - while using smartphones, refrigerators, plastic, clean water, indoor plumbing... They do not see, they will not see, there is no point in trying to make them see.
And if they are the majority in society, or even the controlling minority in society, then perhaps it means that society has failed the Darwin test."
It's rather unfortunate that they could kill their friends and family and not even care. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I thought that's why we spent 500 million pounds on ventilators and 3.7 billion pounds on nightingales and gave the NHS unlimited amounts of billions to prepare?.
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel, the beginning is always steep before it curves off and becomes a bell curve, there's really no need for scary words. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I thought that's why we spent 500 million pounds on ventilators and 3.7 billion pounds on nightingales and gave the NHS unlimited amounts of billions to prepare?.
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel, the beginning is always steep before it curves off and becomes a bell curve, there's really no need for scary words."
How many people need to be infected before it ‘runs out of fuel?  |
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"I thought that's why we spent 500 million pounds on ventilators and 3.7 billion pounds on nightingales and gave the NHS unlimited amounts of billions to prepare?.
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel, the beginning is always steep before it curves off and becomes a bell curve, there's really no need for scary words."
Exponential growth of disease in a susceptible population only ceases in two main events:
1) No-one left to infect/kill
2) No-one is susceptible anymore (herd immunity achieved)
That assumes no other interventions to slow down transmission, by the way. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"For anyone struggling to understand why Covid presents a huge issue for hospital capacity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem"
Ok, so explain to me how this ends.
We're all expected to believe a vaccine will ride to the rescue, but the government's own plans call for only the most at risk to get it.
So, that pool of succeptible individuals remains. The majority still get sick. The hospitals are still overwhelmed. Limited vaccination = continued lockdowns & restrictions.
Oh, the most at risk are fine... the rest of us, well, we're kinda screwed aren't we...but that's ok, we protected the vulnerable.
The contradictions in the 'strategy' are so glaringly obvious to anywone who thinks about it that it's embarassing.
Either covid will cripple the NHS or it won't. If it will, vaccinating only the vulnerable is pointless. If it won't, lockdowns & restrictions are pointless.
Thry can't have it both ways.
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"
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel,"
Absolutely correct and we starved it of fuel (people) by having a lockdown of sorts and it obviously worked.
Restrictions are lifted and we give it fuel (people) and infections rise
Hardly rocket science is it ?
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel,
Absolutely correct and we starved it of fuel (people) by having a lockdown of sorts and it obviously worked.
Restrictions are lifted and we give it fuel (people) and infections rise
Hardly rocket science is it ?
"
So the answer is lockdown forever?
I promose you, covid has more patience than you do. |
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"
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel,
Absolutely correct and we starved it of fuel (people) by having a lockdown of sorts and it obviously worked.
Restrictions are lifted and we give it fuel (people) and infections rise
Hardly rocket science is it ?
So the answer is lockdown forever?
I promose you, covid has more patience than you do."
No the answer isn't lockdown forever
The answer is heed some very simple rules
Wash your hands
Socially distance
Wear a face covering
Again, hardly rocket science
|
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"For anyone struggling to understand why Covid presents a huge issue for hospital capacity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem
Ok, so explain to me how this ends.
We're all expected to believe a vaccine will ride to the rescue, but the government's own plans call for only the most at risk to get it.
So, that pool of succeptible individuals remains. The majority still get sick. The hospitals are still overwhelmed. Limited vaccination = continued lockdowns & restrictions.
Oh, the most at risk are fine... the rest of us, well, we're kinda screwed aren't we...but that's ok, we protected the vulnerable.
The contradictions in the 'strategy' are so glaringly obvious to anywone who thinks about it that it's embarassing.
Either covid will cripple the NHS or it won't. If it will, vaccinating only the vulnerable is pointless. If it won't, lockdowns & restrictions are pointless.
Thry can't have it both ways.
"
The vunerable will get it in the first batches and then the rest of the population. It has never been announced that it won't be available to everyone but these these things take time. Also were you not saying yesterday that the fit and healthy should be allowed to go about their business and the vulnerable be shut away. So I don't even know why you would be worried if fit healthy people couldn't have a vaccine because according to you they are gonna be fine.
So your point holds no weight. |
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"There is nobody "struggling to understand" the problem. There are two groups in society, those who know there is a problem, and those who wilfully deny that there is a problem. Not all who recognise the problem are fully aware of exactly how the mathematics works, but they are all capable of looking at a picture of the curve showing the numbers going up faster and faster. And everyone in the country has lived through it happening once just a few months ago. Those who see the problem may disagree about tactics to deal with it, and many are in despair at the inadequacy of the leadership, but they do recognise that without control we could easily be stacking bodies in the street.
The ones who still do not see the problem are not struggling to understand it, there is no magic demonstration that will make them say "oh i see now, yes I'm going to change my behaviour". They are people in utter willful denial of reality. They are people who deny the very concepts of science and mathematics - while using smartphones, refrigerators, plastic, clean water, indoor plumbing... They do not see, they will not see, there is no point in trying to make them see.
And if they are the majority in society, or even the controlling minority in society, then perhaps it means that society has failed the Darwin test."
Thanks Polly  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"There is nobody "struggling to understand" the problem. There are two groups in society, those who know there is a problem, and those who wilfully deny that there is a problem. Not all who recognise the problem are fully aware of exactly how the mathematics works, but they are all capable of looking at a picture of the curve showing the numbers going up faster and faster. And everyone in the country has lived through it happening once just a few months ago. Those who see the problem may disagree about tactics to deal with it, and many are in despair at the inadequacy of the leadership, but they do recognise that without control we could easily be stacking bodies in the street.
The ones who still do not see the problem are not struggling to understand it, there is no magic demonstration that will make them say "oh i see now, yes I'm going to change my behaviour". They are people in utter willful denial of reality. They are people who deny the very concepts of science and mathematics - while using smartphones, refrigerators, plastic, clean water, indoor plumbing... They do not see, they will not see, there is no point in trying to make them see.
And if they are the majority in society, or even the controlling minority in society, then perhaps it means that society has failed the Darwin test."
Brilliant. |
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"There is nobody "struggling to understand" the problem. There are two groups in society, those who know there is a problem, and those who wilfully deny that there is a problem. Not all who recognise the problem are fully aware of exactly how the mathematics works, but they are all capable of looking at a picture of the curve showing the numbers going up faster and faster. And everyone in the country has lived through it happening once just a few months ago. Those who see the problem may disagree about tactics to deal with it, and many are in despair at the inadequacy of the leadership, but they do recognise that without control we could easily be stacking bodies in the street.
The ones who still do not see the problem are not struggling to understand it, there is no magic demonstration that will make them say "oh i see now, yes I'm going to change my behaviour". They are people in utter willful denial of reality. They are people who deny the very concepts of science and mathematics - while using smartphones, refrigerators, plastic, clean water, indoor plumbing... They do not see, they will not see, there is no point in trying to make them see.
And if they are the majority in society, or even the controlling minority in society, then perhaps it means that society has failed the Darwin test."
Great start although I do have some issues with your first line..... from there on in its shite!
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel,
Absolutely correct and we starved it of fuel (people) by having a lockdown of sorts and it obviously worked.
Restrictions are lifted and we give it fuel (people) and infections rise
Hardly rocket science is it ?
So the answer is lockdown forever?
I promose you, covid has more patience than you do.
No the answer isn't lockdown forever
The answer is heed some very simple rules
Wash your hands
Socially distance
Wear a face covering
Again, hardly rocket science
"
So many seem to think this s complicated all bloody morons |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I thought that's why we spent 500 million pounds on ventilators and 3.7 billion pounds on nightingales and gave the NHS unlimited amounts of billions to prepare?.
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel, the beginning is always steep before it curves off and becomes a bell curve, there's really no need for scary words.
Exponential growth of disease in a susceptible population only ceases in two main events:
1) No-one left to infect/kill
2) No-one is susceptible anymore (herd immunity achieved)
That assumes no other interventions to slow down transmission, by the way. "
Your completely wrong on every level and that assumes you have any science to suggest slowing it makes any difference.
Let me start by saying this, no epidemic ever in history has infected more than 60% of the population except mild illnesses, when you have a virus that 100% of the population has no immunity to but 90% of the population will be fine two things will happen.
You'll have an exponential early curve and it will die out very fast as it reaches the 25-35% of infected Mark, it simply cannot reach enough of the population fast enough to keep up infection rates and the 90% of people it leaves with immunity can't pass it back on and on.
Every epidemic we've had ever tells you it NEVER infects everybody, dozens and dozens of flu epidemics over decades yet most people have never had flu.
|
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"
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel,
Absolutely correct and we starved it of fuel (people) by having a lockdown of sorts and it obviously worked.
Restrictions are lifted and we give it fuel (people) and infections rise
Hardly rocket science is it ?
So the answer is lockdown forever?
I promose you, covid has more patience than you do.
No the answer isn't lockdown forever
The answer is heed some very simple rules
Wash your hands
Socially distance
Wear a face covering
Again, hardly rocket science
So many seem to think this s complicated all bloody morons"
They dont think it is complicated, they know it is easy, what they dont seem to know is that it has to be 'everyone' doing it, and not 'everyone else'.
they are invincible they are mainly young and think if they catch it they will survive (probably) and that they really dont give a shit who else they infect, so if they kill granny (or anyone elses granny) why do they care, they are okay and they will blame government ! (not that i have much time for Boris, but you cannot legislate for idiots who ignore legislation). |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
They dont think it is complicated, they know it is easy, what they dont seem to know is that it has to be 'everyone' doing it, and not 'everyone else'.
they are invincible they are mainly young and think if they catch it they will survive (probably) and that they really dont give a shit who else they infect, so if they kill granny (or anyone elses granny) why do they care, they are okay and they will blame government ! (not that i have much time for Boris, but you cannot legislate for idiots who ignore legislation)."
I am not young.
I am not invincible.
I do 'give a shit'.
I don't want to get sick any more than anyone else does.
I have no wish to be a 'granny killer' - mine or anyone else's.
I do take care of my personal hygiene and always have.
Where it's appropriate I do wear a mask.
That much I have no issue with.
I'm not stupid, callous, careless, moronic or self centered. That said I won't be ordered around like a 2 year old by people who have no real idea what to do and are simply 'doing something' in response to headlines.
I do have an issue with this whole concept of 'social distancing', which seems to be at the root of all the restrictions. It's not a healthy way to live and it's not sustainable long term.
I honestly struggle to believe that the entire population will ever be vaccinated, and absolutely not within the next 3 years.
If you want to live under these restrictions for the next 3-5 years at least, that's up to you. I don't. |
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"
They dont think it is complicated, they know it is easy, what they dont seem to know is that it has to be 'everyone' doing it, and not 'everyone else'.
they are invincible they are mainly young and think if they catch it they will survive (probably) and that they really dont give a shit who else they infect, so if they kill granny (or anyone elses granny) why do they care, they are okay and they will blame government ! (not that i have much time for Boris, but you cannot legislate for idiots who ignore legislation).
I am not young.
I am not invincible.
I do 'give a shit'.
I don't want to get sick any more than anyone else does.
I have no wish to be a 'granny killer' - mine or anyone else's.
I do take care of my personal hygiene and always have.
Where it's appropriate I do wear a mask.
That much I have no issue with.
I'm not stupid, callous, careless, moronic or self centered. That said I won't be ordered around like a 2 year old by people who have no real idea what to do and are simply 'doing something' in response to headlines.
I do have an issue with this whole concept of 'social distancing', which seems to be at the root of all the restrictions. It's not a healthy way to live and it's not sustainable long term.
I honestly struggle to believe that the entire population will ever be vaccinated, and absolutely not within the next 3 years.
If you want to live under these restrictions for the next 3-5 years at least, that's up to you. I don't."
 |
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Well one issue is we really don’t have much critical care infrastructure.
Say you have an average district general hospital, at the most it will have 20-25 critical care beds, critical care beds are most often nurses on a 1-2-1 basis, so if you think that at the height that unit would be getting 4 new admissions per day, even with doubling or tripling capacity that many hospitals did by creating pop up ICU wards you become overwhelmed very quickly.
The nightingale are now being re-opened but they will not be for ICU cases, they will be for mild cases that need treatment or for admissions that are assessed as not likely to have a valid benefit of ICU treatment as comorbidity is not likely to result in a positive outcome and that ICU bed will be of more value to someone else, and that’s going to be a call that has to be made everyday if things keep getting worse |
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"I thought that's why we spent 500 million pounds on ventilators and 3.7 billion pounds on nightingales and gave the NHS unlimited amounts of billions to prepare?.
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel, the beginning is always steep before it curves off and becomes a bell curve, there's really no need for scary words.
Exponential growth of disease in a susceptible population only ceases in two main events:
1) No-one left to infect/kill
2) No-one is susceptible anymore (herd immunity achieved)
That assumes no other interventions to slow down transmission, by the way. "
You only have to look at Sweden to see what happens in real life as a opposed to a computer simulation. Exponential at the beginning, peaks then decays away. |
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"There is nobody "struggling to understand" the problem. There are two groups in society, those who know there is a problem, and those who wilfully deny that there is a problem. Not all who recognise the problem are fully aware of exactly how the mathematics works, but they are all capable of looking at a picture of the curve showing the numbers going up faster and faster. And everyone in the country has lived through it happening once just a few months ago. Those who see the problem may disagree about tactics to deal with it, and many are in despair at the inadequacy of the leadership, but they do recognise that without control we could easily be stacking bodies in the street.
The ones who still do not see the problem are not struggling to understand it, there is no magic demonstration that will make them say "oh i see now, yes I'm going to change my behaviour". They are people in utter willful denial of reality. They are people who deny the very concepts of science and mathematics - while using smartphones, refrigerators, plastic, clean water, indoor plumbing... They do not see, they will not see, there is no point in trying to make them see.
And if they are the majority in society, or even the controlling minority in society, then perhaps it means that society has failed the Darwin test.
It's rather unfortunate that they could kill their friends and family and not even care."
Exactly... As I see it the 2 sectors are looking at 2 totally different priorities.
1. Those that can think of others.Those that value lives and are after protecting other peoples lives at all costs and knowing from experience the economy will pick up again and new businesses will reform
2. Those that cannot see past their own lives with no empathy for others. The current business people struggling and prioritising their short term profits over other people's lives. Or individuals who have not had the foresight to keep any savings for a rainy day but still wanting their latest I phones etc. |
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"I thought that's why we spent 500 million pounds on ventilators and 3.7 billion pounds on nightingales and gave the NHS unlimited amounts of billions to prepare?.
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel, the beginning is always steep before it curves off and becomes a bell curve, there's really no need for scary words.
Exponential growth of disease in a susceptible population only ceases in two main events:
1) No-one left to infect/kill
2) No-one is susceptible anymore (herd immunity achieved)
That assumes no other interventions to slow down transmission, by the way.
You only have to look at Sweden to see what happens in real life as a opposed to a computer simulation. Exponential at the beginning, peaks then decays away."
Lol, look harder |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
They dont think it is complicated, they know it is easy, what they dont seem to know is that it has to be 'everyone' doing it, and not 'everyone else'.
they are invincible they are mainly young and think if they catch it they will survive (probably) and that they really dont give a shit who else they infect, so if they kill granny (or anyone elses granny) why do they care, they are okay and they will blame government ! (not that i have much time for Boris, but you cannot legislate for idiots who ignore legislation).
I am not young.
I am not invincible.
I do 'give a shit'.
I don't want to get sick any more than anyone else does.
I have no wish to be a 'granny killer' - mine or anyone else's.
I do take care of my personal hygiene and always have.
Where it's appropriate I do wear a mask.
That much I have no issue with.
I'm not stupid, callous, careless, moronic or self centered. That said I won't be ordered around like a 2 year old by people who have no real idea what to do and are simply 'doing something' in response to headlines.
I do have an issue with this whole concept of 'social distancing', which seems to be at the root of all the restrictions. It's not a healthy way to live and it's not sustainable long term.
I honestly struggle to believe that the entire population will ever be vaccinated, and absolutely not within the next 3 years.
If you want to live under these restrictions for the next 3-5 years at least, that's up to you. I don't."
Authoritarianism has been creeping creeping creeping for years, everybody is clamouring to be saved.
Saved from terrorism
Saved from a banking collapse
Saved from migrants
Saved from austerity
Saved from the police
Saved from capitalism
Saved from a virus
Same nonsense different narrative, every group has an agenda which is why I'm a libertarian,I don't care about your granny or your agenda usually spouted as a straw man argument they don't care about my granny either, what they actually care about is obtaining control, enforcing they're own beliefs and stopping any dissenting voices.
Far right, far left, globalists, establishment, same people different message same agenda. |
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"I thought that's why we spent 500 million pounds on ventilators and 3.7 billion pounds on nightingales and gave the NHS unlimited amounts of billions to prepare?.
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel, the beginning is always steep before it curves off and becomes a bell curve, there's really no need for scary words.
Exponential growth of disease in a susceptible population only ceases in two main events:
1) No-one left to infect/kill
2) No-one is susceptible anymore (herd immunity achieved)
That assumes no other interventions to slow down transmission, by the way.
You only have to look at Sweden to see what happens in real life as a opposed to a computer simulation. Exponential at the beginning, peaks then decays away.
Lol, look harder "
I've looked really hard and I see a country that was told that, according to the Imperial College model, they would suffer 100,000 deaths if they didn't lock down. They didn't lock down and suffered 5,500 deaths. The virus only rose exponentially for a brief time before burning itself out. It never ravaged the population as the doom mongers suggested would happen. |
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"I thought that's why we spent 500 million pounds on ventilators and 3.7 billion pounds on nightingales and gave the NHS unlimited amounts of billions to prepare?.
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel, the beginning is always steep before it curves off and becomes a bell curve, there's really no need for scary words.
Exponential growth of disease in a susceptible population only ceases in two main events:
1) No-one left to infect/kill
2) No-one is susceptible anymore (herd immunity achieved)
That assumes no other interventions to slow down transmission, by the way.
You only have to look at Sweden to see what happens in real life as a opposed to a computer simulation. Exponential at the beginning, peaks then decays away.
Lol, look harder
I've looked really hard and I see a country that was told that, according to the Imperial College model, they would suffer 100,000 deaths if they didn't lock down. They didn't lock down and suffered 5,500 deaths. The virus only rose exponentially for a brief time before burning itself out. It never ravaged the population as the doom mongers suggested would happen."
They did lockdown. They just didn't do a full lockdown like here and the population are more sensible than the idiots who dance and play cricket in the streets when the pubs close.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-24/coronavirus-whats-going-on-in-sweden-and-how-can-a-country-have-got-it-both-so-right-and-so-wrong
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"I thought that's why we spent 500 million pounds on ventilators and 3.7 billion pounds on nightingales and gave the NHS unlimited amounts of billions to prepare?.
Nothing stays exponential for long, it runs out of fuel, the beginning is always steep before it curves off and becomes a bell curve, there's really no need for scary words.
Exponential growth of disease in a susceptible population only ceases in two main events:
1) No-one left to infect/kill
2) No-one is susceptible anymore (herd immunity achieved)
That assumes no other interventions to slow down transmission, by the way.
You only have to look at Sweden to see what happens in real life as a opposed to a computer simulation. Exponential at the beginning, peaks then decays away.
Lol, look harder
I've looked really hard and I see a country that was told that, according to the Imperial College model, they would suffer 100,000 deaths if they didn't lock down. They didn't lock down and suffered 5,500 deaths. The virus only rose exponentially for a brief time before burning itself out. It never ravaged the population as the doom mongers suggested would happen.
They did lockdown. They just didn't do a full lockdown like here and the population are more sensible than the idiots who dance and play cricket in the streets when the pubs close.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-24/coronavirus-whats-going-on-in-sweden-and-how-can-a-country-have-got-it-both-so-right-and-so-wrong
"
They didn't lock down, they used social distancing. No masks, no working from home, no closing of businesses except large events, no schools closed. No restrictions on parties, entertainment, bubble of 6 etc. The virus went up and then back down again. |
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