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Govt considering "half way house" until Easter
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Snippets of potential news leaked to trusted friends in the media, possibly deflection but also possible it might be an option..
The mood music is they don't want to unlock too soon and certainly with the time of year waiting till then will hopefully alleviate the stress upon the NHS as vaccination continues.. |
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"I'll see what any relaxation does (by waiting 4-6 weeks to look at hospitalisations and deaths) before I change anything."
You don't need to wait.
From memory, from testing until death (for those who die) it is 23 days and for hospital discharge it is 29 days.
We already know the testing information and can see that deaths and hospitalisations are starting to go down.
Cases are approaching half of the peak so in 23 and 29 days deaths and hospitalisations will be about half of the peak. |
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"I'll see what any relaxation does (by waiting 4-6 weeks to look at hospitalisations and deaths) before I change anything.
You don't need to wait.
From memory, from testing until death (for those who die) it is 23 days and for hospital discharge it is 29 days.
We already know the testing information and can see that deaths and hospitalisations are starting to go down.
Cases are approaching half of the peak so in 23 and 29 days deaths and hospitalisations will be about half of the peak."
As apparently anyone else is allowed to do, I will make my own judgement when the time comes. |
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Over 50's is ridiculous.
Can't wait that long.
The over 70's make up 84% of the deaths and presumably hospitalisations.
Taking that to the over 70's only adds another 15%
It should be over 80's only and those in care homes or high risk which will actually push the number to nearly 90%
There is actually no reason that we can't start relaxing lockdown right now. |
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"Over 50's is ridiculous.
Can't wait that long.
The over 70's make up 84% of the deaths and presumably hospitalisations.
Taking that to the over 70's only adds another 15%
It should be over 80's only and those in care homes or high risk which will actually push the number to nearly 90%
There is actually no reason that we can't start relaxing lockdown right now."
So you're telling me I'm not allowed to make my own choices about when I leave my house because of your interpretation of the data?
I didn't say "you must" or "we must". I said "I will". |
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This type of media is unsavoury and they have their own agenda, which is not with an ideology that benefits most citizens.
Full lockdown until ee have much greater reduction in infections and hospital patients. What's needed is a published detailed plan from government, to ensure they are accountable and individuals can monitor progress. Other than that, credible scientific research reports, instead of media bilge to suit their agenda. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Previous lockdowns relaxed too much too soon. Let’s learn from that. "
Definitely agree.
I do think some measures will be relaxed by mid February However I would rather stay in lockdown Until enough has been done to a flatten the curve than go in-and-out of lockdown and in-and-out of tiers. London went from T2 to T3 to T4 in 6 days.
I'd rather there know what I doing than the rules change every 5 minutes. |
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By *ocbigMan
over a year ago
Birmingham |
"Over 50's is ridiculous.
Can't wait that long.
The over 70's make up 84% of the deaths and presumably hospitalisations.
Taking that to the over 70's only adds another 15%
It should be over 80's only and those in care homes or high risk which will actually push the number to nearly 90%
There is actually no reason that we can't start relaxing lockdown right now."
.
I can think of 100,000. |
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"Reading an article in the telegraph today talking about how the government wants to extend lockdown till after Easter until all over 50's have had their second dose. Thoughts? "
.... not even had first dose yet and im in high risk group ,cannot even work ..
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Reading an article in the telegraph today talking about how the government wants to extend lockdown till after Easter until all over 50's have had their second dose. Thoughts? .... not even had first dose yet and im in high risk group ,cannot even work .."
The high whisk group is group to 6.
If you are shielding and have had an official government shielding letter then you're going is being done now and you will get an appointment within the next couple of weeks.
I will point out though group 6 will take a while to complete because that has the largest number of people in it in all of the priority categories. And if you income about the time those that have already had the vaccine will need their 2nd dose.
We just need to be patient. |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"Reading an article in the telegraph today talking about how the government wants to extend lockdown till after Easter until all over 50's have had their second dose. Thoughts? "
Pure guesswork by this paper although I m sure lockdown will be lifted very slowly I am sure
|
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"Over 50's is ridiculous.
Can't wait that long.
The over 70's make up 84% of the deaths and presumably hospitalisations.
Taking that to the over 70's only adds another 15%
It should be over 80's only and those in care homes or high risk which will actually push the number to nearly 90%
There is actually no reason that we can't start relaxing lockdown right now..
I can think of 100,000."
This  |
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I feel they have made a mistake here. They should have started with over 80s who are not in homes then done home workers before moving to shop workers,teachers and police before doing rest to keep society going? |
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And i do believe now that the over 50s may be put back a stage now to prioratise people with occupations that puts them into contact with the public ie Teachers Police Bus drivers train gaurds supermarket personel. |
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It'll come when it comes. I don't worry about the time.
I've already decided that even when I do get vaccinated, I'm not rushing out to the big wide world afterwards.
Why ? Because the virus (and other mutations) are still out there.
Because I can still carry it perhaps asymptomatically.
And my relaxing could result in some other poor innocent sod's death. No thank you.
My "90%" protection may be closer to "60%" or even less. I know what the trials say, but let the figures bed down. See the efficacy in practice.
I'm not keen on those odds at the moment. |
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"I see a German scientist is asking questions about astra claims about there jab "
That was a misunderstanding - someone read it as 8% effective for over 65s but in actual fact the study said 8% of the people in the study were over 65. |
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"Previous lockdowns relaxed too much too soon. Let’s learn from that. "
It's different now - a huge chunk of those most likely to die now have been vaccinated, we have a greater number who have caught it and recovered and have immunity, we are finally quarantining foreign visitors, the police are finally charging rule breakers.
We do need to tread carefully but can do this in a planned manner with the knowledge and statistics that we now have. |
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"
I can think of 100,000."
That's the past, the future is different.
The reality is death rates are only going down and the balance between preventing hospital admissions and deaths and other factors such as the economy is changing to the point that there is no reason we can't start relaxing lockdown.
I'm not saying everything overnight but we could start say by getting schools back after mid-term and go from there.. |
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By *host63Man
over a year ago
Bedfont Feltham |
Had to deliver some food shopping to.my mum. Made.the mistake thinking it would be clear.so.inwent through Hounslow.
Lockdown my arse. The traffic was horrendous and crowds.of people out.
This is no lockdown and that's why this is out.of control |
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"
I can think of 100,000.
That's the past, the future is different.
The reality is death rates are only going down and the balance between preventing hospital admissions and deaths and other factors such as the economy is changing to the point that there is no reason we can't start relaxing lockdown.
I'm not saying everything overnight but we could start say by getting schools back after mid-term and go from there.."
So the disease no longer grows exponentially? The R0 is magically below 1? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
I can think of 100,000.
That's the past, the future is different.
The reality is death rates are only going down and the balance between preventing hospital admissions and deaths and other factors such as the economy is changing to the point that there is no reason we can't start relaxing lockdown.
I'm not saying everything overnight but we could start say by getting schools back after mid-term and go from there.."
this is what they mean by half way house ... we will get things bit by bit when it is safe but don’t expect a full open doors any time soon |
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"Had to deliver some food shopping to.my mum. Made.the mistake thinking it would be clear.so.inwent through Hounslow.
Lockdown my arse. The traffic was horrendous and crowds.of people out.
This is no lockdown and that's why this is out.of control "
Maybe they were out getting shopping too. You can't criticise folk being out when you're out yourself. You've no idea the reason they were out. Why do folk such as yourself think you're the only folk with a legitimate reason to be out? We all still have lives to lead no matter what is going on. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Had to deliver some food shopping to.my mum. Made.the mistake thinking it would be clear.so.inwent through Hounslow.
Lockdown my arse. The traffic was horrendous and crowds.of people out.
This is no lockdown and that's why this is out.of control
Maybe they were out getting shopping too. You can't criticise folk being out when you're out yourself. You've no idea the reason they were out. Why do folk such as yourself think you're the only folk with a legitimate reason to be out? We all still have lives to lead no matter what is going on."
we can make sensible comparisons to the first lockdown , when if you headed out for essentials you barely saw another person or vehicle except in the queue outside the supermarket (and you had to queue because the supermarket was so busy)
now the roads and streets are full and no queue at the supermarket so what is this essential trip they are all making? |
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"Had to deliver some food shopping to.my mum. Made.the mistake thinking it would be clear.so.inwent through Hounslow.
Lockdown my arse. The traffic was horrendous and crowds.of people out.
This is no lockdown and that's why this is out.of control
Maybe they were out getting shopping too. You can't criticise folk being out when you're out yourself. You've no idea the reason they were out. Why do folk such as yourself think you're the only folk with a legitimate reason to be out? We all still have lives to lead no matter what is going on.
we can make sensible comparisons to the first lockdown , when if you headed out for essentials you barely saw another person or vehicle except in the queue outside the supermarket (and you had to queue because the supermarket was so busy)
now the roads and streets are full and no queue at the supermarket so what is this essential trip they are all making? "
I suppose a lot of it is anecdotal
The roads are much quieter here..even rush hour.
And people still need to go to work. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
Think they are waiting to see how effective the vaccine has been to those that have received it. If the infection rates plumet in the most vulnerable and elderly who have been vaccinated then they may ease lockdown but til they have the data that proves that we doubt any easing will happen. |
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They won't have vaccinated all over 50s with 2 doses by Easter. Modelling from work says only about 10% of whole population early summer not enough for herd immunity as well. Rona needs to fuck off. |
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"
So the disease no longer grows exponentially? The R0 is magically below 1?"
precisely. Vaccinations and other factors have reduced the R number and with every jab it gets better.
but it's not really about infections, it is about not overwhelming the NHS. The vast majority that get infected will be just fine.
Now that we are well on the way to protecting the vulnerable and therefore preventing overwhelming the NHS (and also reducing deaths), we can look at relaxing lockdown.
We don't need to wait until all the over 50's are vaccinated.
Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths (as they lag infections by 3-4 weeks due to the lifecycle of the virus)
In 3-4 weeks we'll be looking at 90% of the vulnerable having been vaccinated.
We're now at the stage that the economic, mental health, excess deaths and other factors are bigger than covid.
Every day of delay means more failed businesses, more suicides, more undiagnosed cancers.
Anyone who can't understand that is welcome to stay at home for another year if the want. |
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"
So the disease no longer grows exponentially? The R0 is magically below 1?
precisely. Vaccinations and other factors have reduced the R number and with every jab it gets better.
but it's not really about infections, it is about not overwhelming the NHS. The vast majority that get infected will be just fine.
Now that we are well on the way to protecting the vulnerable and therefore preventing overwhelming the NHS (and also reducing deaths), we can look at relaxing lockdown.
We don't need to wait until all the over 50's are vaccinated.
Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths (as they lag infections by 3-4 weeks due to the lifecycle of the virus)
In 3-4 weeks we'll be looking at 90% of the vulnerable having been vaccinated.
We're now at the stage that the economic, mental health, excess deaths and other factors are bigger than covid.
Every day of delay means more failed businesses, more suicides, more undiagnosed cancers.
Anyone who can't understand that is welcome to stay at home for another year if the want."
In 3 to 4 weeks the most vulnerable would have only had the 1st jab surely? |
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"
this is what they mean by half way house ... we will get things bit by bit when it is safe but don’t expect a full open doors any time soon "
Yes, I agree but the OP was advocating for a halfway house of anyone over 50 vaccinated. The science says over 70 and those clinically vulnerable. |
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"
In 3 to 4 weeks the most vulnerable would have only had the 1st jab surely?"
Currently sitting at just shy of 500K having had their second dose.
If we assume that is the most vulnerable then that is a pretty decent number.
I do think it is stupid not giving the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine after 3 weeks though...
And don't forget, there is still over 50% immunity after the first dose.
There's other factors as well.
Police actually fining people is making a difference to the widespread rule breaking which is a huge factor.
Studies estimate that around 1/3 of the population has had covid and recovered giving them 83% immunity although the government is keeping that one quiet for fear everyone will unilaterally end lockdown.
We're now quarantining foreign travellers.
It's not all about the vaccine! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Had to deliver some food shopping to.my mum. Made.the mistake thinking it would be clear.so.inwent through Hounslow.
Lockdown my arse. The traffic was horrendous and crowds.of people out.
This is no lockdown and that's why this is out.of control
Maybe they were out getting shopping too. You can't criticise folk being out when you're out yourself. You've no idea the reason they were out. Why do folk such as yourself think you're the only folk with a legitimate reason to be out? We all still have lives to lead no matter what is going on.
we can make sensible comparisons to the first lockdown , when if you headed out for essentials you barely saw another person or vehicle except in the queue outside the supermarket (and you had to queue because the supermarket was so busy)
now the roads and streets are full and no queue at the supermarket so what is this essential trip they are all making?
I suppose a lot of it is anecdotal
The roads are much quieter here..even rush hour.
And people still need to go to work."
strangely it is quiet her til after what would have been rush hour then you start to see the traffic pick up ... i genuinely think alot of it is down to boredom and people actively looking for reasons they are allowed to leave the house
when i had to go into the office for something back in lockdown 1 i would walk ... in a 50 minute round trip i would pass maybe 4 people, all on their own and usually with shopping bags
now when i take those trips i can pass easily 150 people each way and its mostly groups, and a leisurely walk with friends or family while yes burning calories - exercise isn't really the purpose of that trip, people sat about the benches in town having coffee with friends etc
people were going out only for essentials i lockdown 1 , many now go out for leisure ... its understandable due to the fatigue from the length of time its gone on and the rules say you csn meet 1 person outside but to deny its happening when its consistently visible is just daft |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
There is data available (anonymised) from Google that shows mobility data.
It's nowhere near as low as Lockdown 1 levels - especially with regards to travel to workplaces.
Although use of retail/recreation is lower than Lockdown 2 (Nov). Which suggests not everyone who's out is going shopping! |
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By *D835Man
over a year ago
London |
"
So the disease no longer grows exponentially? The R0 is magically below 1?
precisely. Vaccinations and other factors have reduced the R number and with every jab it gets better.
but it's not really about infections, it is about not overwhelming the NHS. The vast majority that get infected will be just fine.
Now that we are well on the way to protecting the vulnerable and therefore preventing overwhelming the NHS (and also reducing deaths), we can look at relaxing lockdown.
We don't need to wait until all the over 50's are vaccinated.
Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths (as they lag infections by 3-4 weeks due to the lifecycle of the virus)
In 3-4 weeks we'll be looking at 90% of the vulnerable having been vaccinated.
We're now at the stage that the economic, mental health, excess deaths and other factors are bigger than covid.
Every day of delay means more failed businesses, more suicides, more undiagnosed cancers.
Anyone who can't understand that is welcome to stay at home for another year if the want."
Its not as simple as you make is sound.
There are various factors to look at. You have to look at the death rate, number of hospitalisations, whether we get new variants, the success of the vaccine rollout etc etc.
You say "Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths"
It doesn't always work that way. Good news the cases are dropping. But it could take more than 3-4 weeks before the deaths & hospitalisations drop to half like the infections have done. And that's because some people can spend 6 weeks or more in hospital. The deaths and hospitalisations don't necessarily drop at the *same rate* as the infections.
The stats on infections, hospitalisations and death rate will have to be reviewed regularly.
You can't put a time stamp on any of those factors. |
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"
So the disease no longer grows exponentially? The R0 is magically below 1?
precisely. Vaccinations and other factors have reduced the R number and with every jab it gets better.
but it's not really about infections, it is about not overwhelming the NHS. The vast majority that get infected will be just fine.
Now that we are well on the way to protecting the vulnerable and therefore preventing overwhelming the NHS (and also reducing deaths), we can look at relaxing lockdown.
We don't need to wait until all the over 50's are vaccinated.
Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths (as they lag infections by 3-4 weeks due to the lifecycle of the virus)
In 3-4 weeks we'll be looking at 90% of the vulnerable having been vaccinated.
We're now at the stage that the economic, mental health, excess deaths and other factors are bigger than covid.
Every day of delay means more failed businesses, more suicides, more undiagnosed cancers.
Anyone who can't understand that is welcome to stay at home for another year if the want.
Its not as simple as you make is sound.
There are various factors to look at. You have to look at the death rate, number of hospitalisations, whether we get new variants, the success of the vaccine rollout etc etc.
You say "Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths"
It doesn't always work that way. Good news the cases are dropping. But it could take more than 3-4 weeks before the deaths & hospitalisations drop to half like the infections have done. And that's because some people can spend 6 weeks or more in hospital. The deaths and hospitalisations don't necessarily drop at the *same rate* as the infections.
The stats on infections, hospitalisations and death rate will have to be reviewed regularly.
You can't put a time stamp on any of those factors."
And with the relaxation of lockdown the R number will increase again, because the R0 of the disease is unchanged as far as we know, even after full vaccination.
So those most at risk of death might be (partially) vaccinated (fully vaccinated is two doses plus two weeks, so we're nowhere near that in 3-4 weeks), but those who are less likely to die might still need hospital and might suffer long term effects. |
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"
Its not as simple as you make is sound.
There are various factors to look at. You have to look at the death rate, number of hospitalisations, whether we get new variants, the success of the vaccine rollout etc etc.
You say "Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths"
It doesn't always work that way. Good news the cases are dropping. But it could take more than 3-4 weeks before the deaths & hospitalisations drop to half like the infections have done. And that's because some people can spend 6 weeks or more in hospital. The deaths and hospitalisations don't necessarily drop at the *same rate* as the infections.
The stats on infections, hospitalisations and death rate will have to be reviewed regularly.
You can't put a time stamp on any of those factors."
I'm a data nerd.
Do some statistical analysis and you will see that it is that simple and you can predict hospitalisations and deaths from positive tests and then track these back to see what changes made the difference.
Shutting schools and restaurants made little difference in Scotland for instance.
The reason there are high deaths and hospitalisations is mainly because half the country seemed to be partying for most of December. Numbers are going down because people are back to work and because the police are actually fining people - I've seen a marked difference in attitude with people afraid they will get caught now.
My point is that we can statistically model what is going to happen and plan relaxations based on that model. Positive tests are a mean of 5 days after infection so feedback on changes is quite quick - we don't need to wait for deaths and hospitalisations to get out of control.
I wish I could get more info on types of vaccine given and ages and I could model how the vaccinations are going to impact things.
I can't speak for England but I have a huge confidence level that we could open takeaways and click & collect in Scotland again today and open schools after mid term.
I also see no reason we couldn't open restaurants with restrictions.
I think the variants are a smokescreen to divert from government incompetence (both UK and Scottish). There are dozens if not hundreds of variants and a bit of scaremongering both sells papers/gets clicks and helps keep people scared and indoors.
Whilst he might be universally despised, Cummings said that most politicians don't have the core skills to run a country. Statistics was one area he talked about. He is correct.
At the moment they are just running about doing "stuff" and it is failing. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
Its not as simple as you make is sound.
There are various factors to look at. You have to look at the death rate, number of hospitalisations, whether we get new variants, the success of the vaccine rollout etc etc.
You say "Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths"
It doesn't always work that way. Good news the cases are dropping. But it could take more than 3-4 weeks before the deaths & hospitalisations drop to half like the infections have done. And that's because some people can spend 6 weeks or more in hospital. The deaths and hospitalisations don't necessarily drop at the *same rate* as the infections.
The stats on infections, hospitalisations and death rate will have to be reviewed regularly.
You can't put a time stamp on any of those factors.
I'm a data nerd.
Do some statistical analysis and you will see that it is that simple and you can predict hospitalisations and deaths from positive tests and then track these back to see what changes made the difference.
Shutting schools and restaurants made little difference in Scotland for instance.
The reason there are high deaths and hospitalisations is mainly because half the country seemed to be partying for most of December. Numbers are going down because people are back to work and because the police are actually fining people - I've seen a marked difference in attitude with people afraid they will get caught now.
My point is that we can statistically model what is going to happen and plan relaxations based on that model. Positive tests are a mean of 5 days after infection so feedback on changes is quite quick - we don't need to wait for deaths and hospitalisations to get out of control.
I wish I could get more info on types of vaccine given and ages and I could model how the vaccinations are going to impact things.
I can't speak for England but I have a huge confidence level that we could open takeaways and click & collect in Scotland again today and open schools after mid term.
I also see no reason we couldn't open restaurants with restrictions.
I think the variants are a smokescreen to divert from government incompetence (both UK and Scottish). There are dozens if not hundreds of variants and a bit of scaremongering both sells papers/gets clicks and helps keep people scared and indoors.
Whilst he might be universally despised, Cummings said that most politicians don't have the core skills to run a country. Statistics was one area he talked about. He is correct.
At the moment they are just running about doing "stuff" and it is failing."
we should base restrictions on data but one of the reasons this is difficult is that the pure track and trace data doesnt actually paint a full picture - the impact of public perception is entirely missing from it
for example opening takeaways and restaurants and schools and shops sends the message to the public that things are under control and we have come out the other side of it ... and at that point (coinciding with the end of dry January, lighter nights coming in and seeing the vaccines go up as other drivers/ indicators) watch a general relaxation of peoples attitudes as the signals all point to problem solved ... do this too soon and we end up back at square one |
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"
Its not as simple as you make is sound.
There are various factors to look at. You have to look at the death rate, number of hospitalisations, whether we get new variants, the success of the vaccine rollout etc etc.
You say "Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths"
It doesn't always work that way. Good news the cases are dropping. But it could take more than 3-4 weeks before the deaths & hospitalisations drop to half like the infections have done. And that's because some people can spend 6 weeks or more in hospital. The deaths and hospitalisations don't necessarily drop at the *same rate* as the infections.
The stats on infections, hospitalisations and death rate will have to be reviewed regularly.
You can't put a time stamp on any of those factors.
I'm a data nerd.
Do some statistical analysis and you will see that it is that simple and you can predict hospitalisations and deaths from positive tests and then track these back to see what changes made the difference.
Shutting schools and restaurants made little difference in Scotland for instance.
The reason there are high deaths and hospitalisations is mainly because half the country seemed to be partying for most of December. Numbers are going down because people are back to work and because the police are actually fining people - I've seen a marked difference in attitude with people afraid they will get caught now.
My point is that we can statistically model what is going to happen and plan relaxations based on that model. Positive tests are a mean of 5 days after infection so feedback on changes is quite quick - we don't need to wait for deaths and hospitalisations to get out of control.
I wish I could get more info on types of vaccine given and ages and I could model how the vaccinations are going to impact things.
I can't speak for England but I have a huge confidence level that we could open takeaways and click & collect in Scotland again today and open schools after mid term.
I also see no reason we couldn't open restaurants with restrictions.
I think the variants are a smokescreen to divert from government incompetence (both UK and Scottish). There are dozens if not hundreds of variants and a bit of scaremongering both sells papers/gets clicks and helps keep people scared and indoors.
Whilst he might be universally despised, Cummings said that most politicians don't have the core skills to run a country. Statistics was one area he talked about. He is correct.
At the moment they are just running about doing "stuff" and it is failing."
I'm not sure half the country 'partied 'as everywhere was closed. |
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By *rispyDuckMan
over a year ago
Chinese Takeaway near you |
It definitely sucks and mental health admission have risen too. Humans are social creatures & many are close to breaking point  but I do understand the Government's position too!! Whatever they decide, they are doom if they don't doomed if they do  |
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By *D835Man
over a year ago
London |
"
Its not as simple as you make is sound.
There are various factors to look at. You have to look at the death rate, number of hospitalisations, whether we get new variants, the success of the vaccine rollout etc etc.
You say "Infection rates are half the peak so, in 3-4 weeks so will hospitalisations and deaths"
It doesn't always work that way. Good news the cases are dropping. But it could take more than 3-4 weeks before the deaths & hospitalisations drop to half like the infections have done. And that's because some people can spend 6 weeks or more in hospital. The deaths and hospitalisations don't necessarily drop at the *same rate* as the infections.
The stats on infections, hospitalisations and death rate will have to be reviewed regularly.
You can't put a time stamp on any of those factors.
I'm a data nerd.
Do some statistical analysis and you will see that it is that simple and you can predict hospitalisations and deaths from positive tests and then track these back to see what changes made the difference.
Shutting schools and restaurants made little difference in Scotland for instance.
The reason there are high deaths and hospitalisations is mainly because half the country seemed to be partying for most of December. Numbers are going down because people are back to work and because the police are actually fining people - I've seen a marked difference in attitude with people afraid they will get caught now.
My point is that we can statistically model what is going to happen and plan relaxations based on that model. Positive tests are a mean of 5 days after infection so feedback on changes is quite quick - we don't need to wait for deaths and hospitalisations to get out of control.
I wish I could get more info on types of vaccine given and ages and I could model how the vaccinations are going to impact things.
I can't speak for England but I have a huge confidence level that we could open takeaways and click & collect in Scotland again today and open schools after mid term.
I also see no reason we couldn't open restaurants with restrictions.
I think the variants are a smokescreen to divert from government incompetence (both UK and Scottish). There are dozens if not hundreds of variants and a bit of scaremongering both sells papers/gets clicks and helps keep people scared and indoors.
Whilst he might be universally despised, Cummings said that most politicians don't have the core skills to run a country. Statistics was one area he talked about. He is correct.
At the moment they are just running about doing "stuff" and it is failing."
"...My point is that we can statistically model what is going to happen..."
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And you think we don't have enough statisticians working for the government who would have told us by now what is going to happen ??
Models are fine on paper, they don't always pan out the same way in real life. And that is true especially in a case like this when there are so many variables to look at, variables which I have highlighted above.
Even if you know *what* the end result is, you may not know exactly *when* it will happen. |
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And you think we don't have enough statisticians working for the government who would have told us by now what is going to happen ??
Models are fine on paper, they don't always pan out the same way in real life. And that is true especially in a case like this when there are so many variables to look at, variables which I have highlighted above.
Even if you know *what* the end result is, you may not know exactly *when* it will happen."
I'm sure we do have plenty of statisticians so I have no idea why the governments are doing everything so badly.
If I can model it, and have reliably getting it right for a few months now then something has gone badly wrong somewhere.
It seems the governments are basing decisions on deaths today rather than positive tests a month ago which predicted the deaths today. It's insane! |
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"Previous lockdowns relaxed too much too soon. Let’s learn from that.
Eat out to help out didnt help "
Nor did allowing three households to mix on Christmas Day.
And letting schools go back for one day afterwards |
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