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Brazil and 'herd immunity'
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By *ivinefox OP Woman
over a year ago
Coventry |
Brazil unfortunately is facing a situation where the virus is completely out of control due to their appalling president. I've been reading about pp being tied down to be intubated as they have run out of sedatives. I really feel for these poor pp but the main thing that has struck me is what has happened in the area in Brazil, Menous? ( sp), where the new more infectious variant first appeared is the area where initially 75-80% of the population were infected in the first wave and what has happened since.
So,instead of herd immunity being created ( which was our government 's first plan), what actually happened was a new, more infectious variant emerged.
So, what I'm saying is this herd immunity strategy that Johnson and Cummings were proposing was a load of bollocks and as we can now see, in an area where the majority of the population were infected, all that did was create a new and more deadly variant! |
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It's important to follow valid scientific evidence, rather than pick out bits that may suit some leaders, for their lack of dedication to their job, or their people's wellbeing.
It's truly so upsetting seeing what's happening in Brazil - Bolsonaro shouldn't be allowed to continue in power, in any reasonable world. A disgusting specimen of our race. And now a major danger to the world. |
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"Brazil unfortunately is facing a situation where the virus is completely out of control due to their appalling president. I've been reading about pp being tied down to be intubated as they have run out of sedatives. I really feel for these poor pp but the main thing that has struck me is what has happened in the area in Brazil, Menous? ( sp), where the new more infectious variant first appeared is the area where initially 75-80% of the population were infected in the first wave and what has happened since.
So,instead of herd immunity being created ( which was our government 's first plan), what actually happened was a new, more infectious variant emerged.
So, what I'm saying is this herd immunity strategy that Johnson and Cummings were proposing was a load of bollocks and as we can now see, in an area where the majority of the population were infected, all that did was create a new and more deadly variant! "
This is the issue I have with vax refusers and personal choice bollocks of enough refuse it enabled the virus to build again in the community and mutate into one that the vaccine can’t fight. |
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"Brazil unfortunately is facing a situation where the virus is completely out of control due to their appalling president. I've been reading about pp being tied down to be intubated as they have run out of sedatives. I really feel for these poor pp but the main thing that has struck me is what has happened in the area in Brazil, Menous? ( sp), where the new more infectious variant first appeared is the area where initially 75-80% of the population were infected in the first wave and what has happened since.
So,instead of herd immunity being created ( which was our government 's first plan), what actually happened was a new, more infectious variant emerged.
So, what I'm saying is this herd immunity strategy that Johnson and Cummings were proposing was a load of bollocks and as we can now see, in an area where the majority of the population were infected, all that did was create a new and more deadly variant! "
I haven't seen any evidence that such a high percentage was infected in the first wave in Brazil, given how the disease has progressed I would say it feels unlikely to have spread that much within a couple of months |
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"Brazil unfortunately is facing a situation where the virus is completely out of control due to their appalling president. I've been reading about pp being tied down to be intubated as they have run out of sedatives. I really feel for these poor pp but the main thing that has struck me is what has happened in the area in Brazil, Menous? ( sp), where the new more infectious variant first appeared is the area where initially 75-80% of the population were infected in the first wave and what has happened since.
So,instead of herd immunity being created ( which was our government 's first plan), what actually happened was a new, more infectious variant emerged.
So, what I'm saying is this herd immunity strategy that Johnson and Cummings were proposing was a load of bollocks and as we can now see, in an area where the majority of the population were infected, all that did was create a new and more deadly variant!
I haven't seen any evidence that such a high percentage was infected in the first wave in Brazil, given how the disease has progressed I would say it feels unlikely to have spread that much within a couple of months "
There was a study published back in late 2020 with that figure cited.
Here's a more recent one in the BMJ about the situation in Manaus
Covid-19: Is Manaus the final nail in the coffin for natural herd immunity?
BMJ 2021; 372 |
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By *eeleyWoman
over a year ago
Dudley |
"Brazil unfortunately is facing a situation where the virus is completely out of control due to their appalling president. I've been reading about pp being tied down to be intubated as they have run out of sedatives. I really feel for these poor pp but the main thing that has struck me is what has happened in the area in Brazil, Menous? ( sp), where the new more infectious variant first appeared is the area where initially 75-80% of the population were infected in the first wave and what has happened since.
So,instead of herd immunity being created ( which was our government 's first plan), what actually happened was a new, more infectious variant emerged.
So, what I'm saying is this herd immunity strategy that Johnson and Cummings were proposing was a load of bollocks and as we can now see, in an area where the majority of the population were infected, all that did was create a new and more deadly variant!
This is the issue I have with vax refusers and personal choice bollocks of enough refuse it enabled the virus to build again in the community and mutate into one that the vaccine can’t fight. "
Agreed, personal choice is fine when it's only affecting the person making the choice, when it has the potential to cause the death of other people it's no longer personal.
I'm one of those that think everyone should be vaccinated unless they have a medical reason not to be, if they refuse then they should face restrictions. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"Bolsonaro already had it and seems to have come through unscathed..."
Bolsonaro was another one who also ended up in ICU... problem is that he saw himself as a trump clone, so tried to deal with the issue of covid the same way trump did....
If you are thinking that one of the countries that dealt with the virus badly is your blueprint... that is probably not good
The survival rates once you need an icu are shocking... in São Paulo, which has the best healthcare in Brazil.. it’s only 30%, in the poorest parts of Brazil it’s 10%
Dealing with it badly plus the P1 variant has made it a lot worse |
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"There was never any proof to back up herd immunity anyway"
That's not true. Herd immunity is actually how these things work in nature. If there are no vaccines, then a virus will ultimately infect an entire "herd". For the infected herd members there will be three possible outcomes:
1. No illness & create antibodies.
2. Illness, recover & create antibodies.
3. Illness & Die.
Ultimately the herd becomes immune to the virus, but has reduced in size dye to the deaths.
Obviously in the case of people there is medical treatment to add to the mix, and vaccines which imitate the "no illness-create antibodies" bit.
Cal |
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"Brazil unfortunately is facing a situation where the virus is completely out of control due to their appalling president. I've been reading about pp being tied down to be intubated as they have run out of sedatives. I really feel for these poor pp but the main thing that has struck me is what has happened in the area in Brazil, Menous? ( sp), where the new more infectious variant first appeared is the area where initially 75-80% of the population were infected in the first wave and what has happened since.
So,instead of herd immunity being created ( which was our government 's first plan), what actually happened was a new, more infectious variant emerged.
So, what I'm saying is this herd immunity strategy that Johnson and Cummings were proposing was a load of bollocks and as we can now see, in an area where the majority of the population were infected, all that did was create a new and more deadly variant! "
They were even claiming to follow the science. Did they attend any math courses at Eton or just Latin? |
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"Brazil unfortunately is facing a situation where the virus is completely out of control due to their appalling president. I've been reading about pp being tied down to be intubated as they have run out of sedatives. I really feel for these poor pp but the main thing that has struck me is what has happened in the area in Brazil, Menous? ( sp), where the new more infectious variant first appeared is the area where initially 75-80% of the population were infected in the first wave and what has happened since.
So,instead of herd immunity being created ( which was our government 's first plan), what actually happened was a new, more infectious variant emerged.
So, what I'm saying is this herd immunity strategy that Johnson and Cummings were proposing was a load of bollocks and as we can now see, in an area where the majority of the population were infected, all that did was create a new and more deadly variant!
This is the issue I have with vax refusers and personal choice bollocks of enough refuse it enabled the virus to build again in the community and mutate into one that the vaccine can’t fight.
Agreed, personal choice is fine when it's only affecting the person making the choice, when it has the potential to cause the death of other people it's no longer personal.
I'm one of those that think everyone should be vaccinated unless they have a medical reason not to be, if they refuse then they should face restrictions. "
100% behind you on this. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Surely herd immunity is only what is left of the herd after it has been ravaged by the virus.. survival of the lucky individuals who didn't die in the first place  "
Herd immunity is a vilified phrase due to it being mentioned at the start of the pandemic, not as a way forward and has been misquoted since. (Google it and try avoiding tribal politics ).
But herd immunity was always going to happen at some point, party due to people recovering from covid and partially due to the vaccine. |
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"Surely herd immunity is only what is left of the herd after it has been ravaged by the virus.. survival of the lucky individuals who didn't die in the first place "
Well exactly and if the virus is clever enough to keep mutating it's going to keep killing the herd until non are left!! Vaccine or not. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"There was never any proof to back up herd immunity anyway
That's not true. Herd immunity is actually how these things work in nature. If there are no vaccines, then a virus will ultimately infect an entire "herd". For the infected herd members there will be three possible outcomes:
1. No illness & create antibodies.
2. Illness, recover & create antibodies.
3. Illness & Die.
Ultimately the herd becomes immune to the virus, but has reduced in size dye to the deaths.
Obviously in the case of people there is medical treatment to add to the mix, and vaccines which imitate the "no illness-create antibodies" bit.
Cal"
Ditto ... you put it more eloquently than me. |
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"There was never any proof to back up herd immunity anyway
That's not true. Herd immunity is actually how these things work in nature. If there are no vaccines, then a virus will ultimately infect an entire "herd". For the infected herd members there will be three possible outcomes:
1. No illness & create antibodies.
2. Illness, recover & create antibodies.
3. Illness & Die.
Ultimately the herd becomes immune to the virus, but has reduced in size dye to the deaths.
Obviously in the case of people there is medical treatment to add to the mix, and vaccines which imitate the "no illness-create antibodies" bit.
Cal
Ditto ... you put it more eloquently than me."
Oooh I've never been called eloquent before  |
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"There was never any proof to back up herd immunity anyway
That's not true. Herd immunity is actually how these things work in nature. If there are no vaccines, then a virus will ultimately infect an entire "herd". For the infected herd members there will be three possible outcomes:
1. No illness & create antibodies.
2. Illness, recover & create antibodies.
3. Illness & Die.
Ultimately the herd becomes immune to the virus, but has reduced in size dye to the deaths.
Obviously in the case of people there is medical treatment to add to the mix, and vaccines which imitate the "no illness-create antibodies" bit.
Cal"
Is it that simple and black and white though? Is it true that all viruses stimulate antibody responses in people and that they last forever.
And even if that were the case and response lasts for 6 months... After 6 months I can be infected again and...?
I think the more relevant question is... Is herd immunity achievable.? Over what period of time? And at what cost economically and in terms of life? |
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"There was never any proof to back up herd immunity anyway
That's not true. Herd immunity is actually how these things work in nature. If there are no vaccines, then a virus will ultimately infect an entire "herd". For the infected herd members there will be three possible outcomes:
1. No illness & create antibodies.
2. Illness, recover & create antibodies.
3. Illness & Die.
Ultimately the herd becomes immune to the virus, but has reduced in size dye to the deaths.
Obviously in the case of people there is medical treatment to add to the mix, and vaccines which imitate the "no illness-create antibodies" bit.
Cal
Is it that simple and black and white though? Is it true that all viruses stimulate antibody responses in people and that they last forever.
And even if that were the case and response lasts for 6 months... After 6 months I can be infected again and...?
I think the more relevant question is... Is herd immunity achievable.? Over what period of time? And at what cost economically and in terms of life? "
The length of immunity can vary from beast to beast, and from virus to virus. The herd immunity occurs because there is enough immunity for long enough for the threat to die away.
I never said that it (the natural model) was a good idea either, just that it does indeed work and has been working for millenia... obviously if you're a herd of wildebeest then economics are not really a consideration |
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"There was never any proof to back up herd immunity anyway
That's not true. Herd immunity is actually how these things work in nature. If there are no vaccines, then a virus will ultimately infect an entire "herd". For the infected herd members there will be three possible outcomes:
1. No illness & create antibodies.
2. Illness, recover & create antibodies.
3. Illness & Die.
Ultimately the herd becomes immune to the virus, but has reduced in size dye to the deaths.
Obviously in the case of people there is medical treatment to add to the mix, and vaccines which imitate the "no illness-create antibodies" bit.
Cal
Is it that simple and black and white though? Is it true that all viruses stimulate antibody responses in people and that they last forever.
And even if that were the case and response lasts for 6 months... After 6 months I can be infected again and...?
I think the more relevant question is... Is herd immunity achievable.? Over what period of time? And at what cost economically and in terms of life?
The length of immunity can vary from beast to beast, and from virus to virus. The herd immunity occurs because there is enough immunity for long enough for the threat to die away.
I never said that it (the natural model) was a good idea either, just that it does indeed work and has been working for millenia... obviously if you're a herd of wildebeest then economics are not really a consideration "
OK ok. So for those advocates of "just let nature take its course and we will eventually arrive at herd immunity" as a solution. Then is this more about the intellectual rather than the practical? So perhaps the observation or even better question regarding herd immunity... Is herd immunity practically achievable in the UK, in Europe, Globally. How long would it take to achieve? How long would it last? How many would die or suffer on that journey? |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
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"There was never any proof to back up herd immunity anyway
That's not true. Herd immunity is actually how these things work in nature. If there are no vaccines, then a virus will ultimately infect an entire "herd". For the infected herd members there will be three possible outcomes:
1. No illness & create antibodies.
2. Illness, recover & create antibodies.
3. Illness & Die.
Ultimately the herd becomes immune to the virus, but has reduced in size dye to the deaths.
Obviously in the case of people there is medical treatment to add to the mix, and vaccines which imitate the "no illness-create antibodies" bit.
Cal
Is it that simple and black and white though? Is it true that all viruses stimulate antibody responses in people and that they last forever.
And even if that were the case and response lasts for 6 months... After 6 months I can be infected again and...?
I think the more relevant question is... Is herd immunity achievable.? Over what period of time? And at what cost economically and in terms of life?
The length of immunity can vary from beast to beast, and from virus to virus. The herd immunity occurs because there is enough immunity for long enough for the threat to die away.
I never said that it (the natural model) was a good idea either, just that it does indeed work and has been working for millenia... obviously if you're a herd of wildebeest then economics are not really a consideration
OK ok. So for those advocates of "just let nature take its course and we will eventually arrive at herd immunity" as a solution. Then is this more about the intellectual rather than the practical? So perhaps the observation or even better question regarding herd immunity... Is herd immunity practically achievable in the UK, in Europe, Globally. How long would it take to achieve? How long would it last? How many would die or suffer on that journey? "
The expectation is that without social distancing, masks and lockdown, that around 0.3 percent of the world population would have died if "everyone" was allowed to be infected. This figure was based on early effects though and not taking into account improvements in treatment.
Absolute most case scenario though would have been about 237 million deaths (0.3% of the 7.9billion World population). Realistically it would probably have been MUCH less than that, but could have still 10's of millions. Then there is the long term health issues associated with long covid to consider, and the impact of all hospitals actually being overwhelmed.
Cal |
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"Bolsonaro already had it and seems to have come through unscathed...
Well, he has to hope he doesn’t get reinfected and end up with a worse outcome the second time round. "
I do wonder if he's had a vaccine... |
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lets hope he catches it and suffers real bad.. 
