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So another expert admits they were wrong
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"Mark carney admits that brexit hasnt caused the end of the world after all.
Cue the "ah we havent left yet" brigade  "
They all seem to be coming out of the woodwork and admitting they got it wrong just lately. |
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"Mark carney admits that brexit hasnt caused the end of the world after all.
Cue the "ah we havent left yet" brigade "
People like him are not worth listening too in any event .
I am very relieved I ignored these people when I made the decision about how to vote .
I am ashamed to admit that I nearly voted to remain as a result of all the false messages put out by people like him. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Mark carney admits that brexit hasnt caused the end of the world after all.
Cue the "ah we havent left yet" brigade "
"And he’s also told the UK’s negotiating counterparts in the EU that they, more than the UK, are vulnerable to financial stability risks during the period of transition. "
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jan/11/wef-global-economic-risks-trump-brexit-business-live
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
"Mark carney admits that brexit hasnt caused the end of the world after all.
Cue the "ah we havent left yet" brigade "
And in the post truth world that exists in the phoney Brexit period, people make the wildest of claims by twisting statements to suit their own agenda.
What Mark Carney actually said...
"Mark Carney said that action by the Bank before and after the vote to leave the European Union had reduced the danger to the country's financial stability.
He added, however, that the overall level of risk was still "elevated".
He also expressed the belief that it would not only be possible, but desirable for the UK to remain part of the EU mechanisms that make financial rules. "
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Can we change the title of this thread to "so another economist admits they were wrong "?
Thank you, you may proceed."
What about 'so another economics expert admits they were wrong'? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Mark carney admits that brexit hasnt caused the end of the world after all.
Cue the "ah we havent left yet" brigade
And in the post truth world that exists in the phoney Brexit period, people make the wildest of claims by twisting statements to suit their own agenda.
What Mark Carney actually said...
"Mark Carney said that action by the Bank before and after the vote to leave the European Union had reduced the danger to the country's financial stability.
He added, however, that the overall level of risk was still "elevated".
He also expressed the belief that it would not only be possible, but desirable for the UK to remain part of the EU mechanisms that make financial rules. "
"
and you think that what he said before the referendum reduced the danger of financial instability?? How? By what he said he was hoping to persuade people to vote to stay? And in the event of a leave vote he had already spooked the markets and business? For what he said he should have been sacked on the spot |
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"Can we change the title of this thread to "so another economist admits they were wrong "?
Thank you, you may proceed.
What about 'so another economics expert admits they were wrong'?"
Happy with that!  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
and you think that what he said before the referendum reduced the danger of financial instability?? How? By what he said he was hoping to persuade people to vote to stay? And in the event of a leave vote he had already spooked the markets and business? For what he said he should have been sacked on the spot"
What for speaking his mind ?
For warning what he rightly thought the risks were going to be.....for having the audacity to warn against something you yourself will blindly run off a cliff edge in order to follow your brexit dream ?
Yeah sack him, fuckwit he is for not blindly following your wish. |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"
and you think that what he said before the referendum reduced the danger of financial instability?? How? By what he said he was hoping to persuade people to vote to stay? And in the event of a leave vote he had already spooked the markets and business? For what he said he should have been sacked on the spot"
Or he said what the BoE assessed would be the likely outcome of voting to leave.
Part of their assessment with respect to both the currency and inflation rising are absolutely true.
Some people do actually do their jobs. However, from what I read many people believe that everyone is always on the make and lout to get us".
That makes for a rather miserable world view.
Enjoy  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
and you think that what he said before the referendum reduced the danger of financial instability?? How? By what he said he was hoping to persuade people to vote to stay? And in the event of a leave vote he had already spooked the markets and business? For what he said he should have been sacked on the spot
What for speaking his mind ?
For warning what he rightly thought the risks were going to be.....for having the audacity to warn against something you yourself will blindly run off a cliff edge in order to follow your brexit dream ?
Yeah sack him, fuckwit he is for not blindly following your wish."
the guy is not supposed to speak his mind/be political. He should have given both scenarios, risks and benefits and as it happens he gave the WRONG one |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
and you think that what he said before the referendum reduced the danger of financial instability?? How? By what he said he was hoping to persuade people to vote to stay? And in the event of a leave vote he had already spooked the markets and business? For what he said he should have been sacked on the spot
Or he said what the BoE assessed would be the likely outcome of voting to leave.
Part of their assessment with respect to both the currency and inflation rising are absolutely true.
Some people do actually do their jobs. However, from what I read many people believe that everyone is always on the make and lout to get us".
That makes for a rather miserable world view.
Enjoy "
so he got part of it right? Who couldn't have forecast that? And the only people with a miserable world view at the moment seem to be the ones moaning about Brexit. From where I'm sitting things are looking pretty good |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Mark carney admits that brexit hasnt caused the end of the world after all.
Cue the "ah we havent left yet" brigade
And in the post truth world that exists in the phoney Brexit period, people make the wildest of claims by twisting statements to suit their own agenda.
What Mark Carney actually said...
"Mark Carney said that action by the Bank before and after the vote to leave the European Union had reduced the danger to the country's financial stability.
He added, however, that the overall level of risk was still "elevated".
He also expressed the belief that it would not only be possible, but desirable for the UK to remain part of the EU mechanisms that make financial rules. "
"
A little selective. He did say that the Bank of England's dire predictions were a tad wrong. Good on him. Economists hey? |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"
so he got part of it right? Who couldn't have forecast that? And the only people with a miserable world view at the moment seem to be the ones moaning about Brexit. From where I'm sitting things are looking pretty good"
Anyone. Really? Do explain the mechanism then 
The world is not actually in a very good place as far as I can see, but that does not define my world view.
I wrote what I meant. |
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By *andS66Couple
over a year ago
Derby |
"
and you think that what he said before the referendum reduced the danger of financial instability?? How? By what he said he was hoping to persuade people to vote to stay? And in the event of a leave vote he had already spooked the markets and business? For what he said he should have been sacked on the spot
What for speaking his mind ?
For warning what he rightly thought the risks were going to be.....for having the audacity to warn against something you yourself will blindly run off a cliff edge in order to follow your brexit dream ?
Yeah sack him, fuckwit he is for not blindly following your wish."
He didn't actually get the risk right though, did he? So he didn't actually rightly think what the risks were going to be...... what he should have said were - " these are the risks, but these are also the potential positives, and the EU has more to lose from a hard Brexit than the UK does" (whih is what he said today)...
Instead, he decided to side with his paymasters in a political move, when the BoE is supposedly neutral.
What a fuckwit. |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"
He didn't actually get the risk right though, did he? So he didn't actually rightly think what the risks were going to be...... what he should have said were - " these are the risks, but these are also the potential positives, and the EU has more to lose from a hard Brexit than the UK does" (whih is what he said today)...
Instead, he decided to side with his paymasters in a political move, when the BoE is supposedly neutral.
What a fuckwit."
What are the forseeable positives? |
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I seem to remember that as soon as the referendum result was announced Mark Carney relieved that he had had the BoE make plans for that result and that he had 10's (or was it 100's) of billions in reserve to ensure that the £ was not catastrophically destabilised.
Now I don't know how much of those funds (if any) have been used, maybe Mark Carney has been quietly doing his job and managing the fall in value of the pound in order to stop the currency falling off a cliff and the UK descending into a Wiemar Republic style inflationary spiral as the £ collapsed.
I don't know if this has happened or not. I do know that the £ was worth $1.49 on 23/6/16 with an average of between $1.40 and $1.45 prior to the vote and that it is now worth $1.20 and the drop does not seem to be slowing down. That's a 20% drop so far. So maybe all these economic experts were essentially correct in what they said, they just expected things to happen quickly whereas this 'car crash' is happening happening in slow motion and we are like crabs or lobsters that are put into a pan of cold water that is slowly brought up to the boil. We may well be blithely sitting in the pan while the world watches us cook our economy. Maybe when Boris was told that The Donald is putting us at the front of the queue it's because he intends to be first diner.
I am only speculating, because I am not an economic expert. However I can look at a graph and spot obvious trends and ask critical questions based on what I see. I can then speculate as to the answers and sift out obviously wrong answers, which seems to be something many here either cant do or refuse to do when the answers don't fit their agenda. |
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"Mark carney admits that brexit hasnt caused the end of the world after all.
Cue the "ah we havent left yet" brigade "
He didn't get it wrong... he got it right... that the economy hasn't collapsed is in no small part due to the BILLIONS that the BoE is creating and pumping into the economy. Something which Carney predicted would be necessary to avoid an adverse impact.
And prices are rising... wholesale prices are rising by ~10% which will start this year to feed through into prices in the shops.
Other impacts are long term once we know the outcome of exit negotiations. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"As an outer, I like Mark Carney. I think he has a level head and a certain amount of vision.
When he speaks, people listen. "
In fact the Referendum result clearly shows that thankfully people didn't listen!
Carney's trying to save face/reputation...and his chances of a knighthood (assuming he's eligible?). |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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To all those defending him, should Carney be allowed to go on TV before the next general election and speak his mind and say that if you vote Labour/Conservative (take your pick) it will lead to economic disaster? |
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"To all those defending him, should Carney be allowed to go on TV before the next general election and speak his mind and say that if you vote Labour/Conservative (take your pick) it will lead to economic disaster?"
If that is what he believes and his views are totally economically based yes. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"To all those defending him, should Carney be allowed to go on TV before the next general election and speak his mind and say that if you vote Labour/Conservative (take your pick) it will lead to economic disaster?
If that is what he believes and his views are totally economically based yes."
but his views weren't totally economically based were they, that is the point! |
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"To all those defending him, should Carney be allowed to go on TV before the next general election and speak his mind and say that if you vote Labour/Conservative (take your pick) it will lead to economic disaster?"
I could not be bothered listening to people like him . Wrong too many times too often. In any event it is too difficult to predict the future . The FTSE 100 index is good enough for me as it builds in expectations of future prospects by people who are putting their money where their mouth is as opposed to some exotic dreamer who gets paid their salary and future pension regards of what they say.
. |
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" I could not be bothered listening to people like him . Wrong too many times too often. In any event it is too difficult to predict the future . The FTSE 100 index is good enough for me as it builds in expectations of future prospects by people who are putting their money where their mouth is as opposed to some exotic dreamer who gets paid their salary and future pension regards of what they say.
. "
So if tomorrow the £ collapses and a loaf of bread costs £100 on Saturday morning and £200 by Saturday afternoon you will have no problems with that provided the FTSE100/250 is up? |
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" I could not be bothered listening to people like him . Wrong too many times too often. In any event it is too difficult to predict the future . The FTSE 100 index is good enough for me as it builds in expectations of future prospects by people who are putting their money where their mouth is as opposed to some exotic dreamer who gets paid their salary and future pension regards of what they say.
.
So if tomorrow the £ collapses and a loaf of bread costs £100 on Saturday morning and £200 by Saturday afternoon you will have no problems with that provided the FTSE100/250 is up? "
However that is not going to happen. A currency should be allowed to float to market rates |
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" However that is not going to happen. A currency should be allowed to float to market rates "
Right...
So, so long as you don't get the hit all at once its OK for the UK's wealth to be drained away because that way you wont notice how you have been made poor by bad political choices.
Nothing like a bit of ignorance to control the prols, how do you like being described as an ignorant prol? I would find it insulting! But I would also find it much more worrying that anyone would see me in such a roll. Which do you find more concerning? |
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"Can we change the title of this thread to "so another economist admits they were wrong "?
Thank you, you may proceed."
One thing that has come out of the whole sorry mess and the crash in 2007 is that economists are very good at analysing and explaining past events but as a group, when it comes to predictions they have little credibility. |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
If you don't want to believe economists then don't.
What is the alternative?
If you would like our leaders to base their financial policies purely on what they "feel" is going to happen then vote for them.
Actually, that's been done already. |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
"To all those defending him, should Carney be allowed to go on TV before the next general election and speak his mind and say that if you vote Labour/Conservative (take your pick) it will lead to economic disaster? I could not be bothered listening to people like him . Wrong too many times too often. In any event it is too difficult to predict the future . The FTSE 100 index is good enough for me as it builds in expectations of future prospects by people who are putting their money where their mouth is as opposed to some exotic dreamer who gets paid their salary and future pension regards of what they say.
. "
70% of the revenues declared by FTSE 100 companies are derived from overseas and therefore negative pressure on the GBP will ppositively affect those Company earnings (and share price) without any increase in productivity.
The FTSE 100 is a fools barometer of the health of the UK economy.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The FTSE 100 is a fools barometer of the health of the UK economy.
"
Quite right. A more accurate reflection of the UK economy is the FTSE 250 Index which after the Referendum hysteria dropped to 15000 and which now stands at 18300. |
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"If you don't want to believe economists then don't.
What is the alternative?
If you would like our leaders to base their financial policies purely on what they "feel" is going to happen then vote for them.
Actually, that's been done already."
I'm completely for evidence-based policy. It's desperately needed in drugs law for instance. However I'd suggest putting too much faith into economists because they are perceived as "scientists" is risky, look at the damage done by Thatcher's slavish following of the Chicago School of Economics, monetarist policies decimated this country. |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"
I'm completely for evidence-based policy. It's desperately needed in drugs law for instance. However I'd suggest putting too much faith into economists because they are perceived as "scientists" is risky, look at the damage done by Thatcher's slavish following of the Chicago School of Economics, monetarist policies decimated this country."
I don't disagree with that and dogma is also unhelpful.
However, what is the option for financial policy other than balancing the theories and data that you have available to you?
Are you likely to give more or less credence to consensus or the marginal opinions?
20:20 retrospect is a beautiful thing. Of course, we also tend to focus on short term events.
If you look over the long term far more people in far more of the world, live longer, are better educated and have more food and comforts than at any time in history.
I would suggest that a good deal of that, for all it's failings and biases, has been due to the prevailing economic system.
Just because we don't fully understand how it works we shouldn't stop trying to and using the best estimates that we can come up with. |
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By *obka3 OP Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"
20:20 retrospect is a beautiful thing. Of course, we also tend to focus on short term events.
If you look over the long term far more people in far more of the world, live longer, are better educated and have more food and comforts than at any time in history.
I would suggest that a good deal of that, for all it's failings and biases, has been due to the prevailing economic system.
Just because we don't fully understand how it works we shouldn't stop trying to and using the best estimates that we can come up with."
While people may have all those things far too much has been from massive increase in personal and public debt which cannot go on for ever and then there will horrendous problems |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"
While people may have all those things far too much has been from massive increase in personal and public debt which cannot go on for ever and then there will horrendous problems "
Agreed in the West. Most of the world is not the West though. That is where the biggest changes have occurred which is stepping out of subsistence poverty. |
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"we shouldn't stop trying to and using the best estimates that we can come up with."
Indeed, much of microeconomics is testable and predictive, but macroeconomics is far more likely to be estimates and - often - just educated guesses.
All just my opinion of course. |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"
Indeed, much of microeconomics is testable and predictive, but macroeconomics is far more likely to be estimates and - often - just educated guesses.
All just my opinion of course. "
An educated guess at least tries to be better.
Again though, what's the alternative? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Indeed, much of microeconomics is testable and predictive, but macroeconomics is far more likely to be estimates and - often - just educated guesses.
All just my opinion of course.
An educated guess at least tries to be better.
Again though, what's the alternative?"
Carney himself has admitted that the model used was not good enough. He used the analogy of weather prediction where the accuracy of forecasts has increased dramatically due to the greater availability of data and refinement of the prediction model.
He has admiited he got it wrong. Cambridge University have analysed the model and assumptions used and criticised him.
The problem is not so much that he got it wrong. The problem is that in order to support the Remain campaign, he portrayed the predictions as virtual certainties. Had he said something like "but take this with a pinch of salt because..." (as did Cambridge University in their analysis), then he would have more credibility. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"If you don't want to believe economists then don't.
What is the alternative?
If you would like our leaders to base their financial policies purely on what they "feel" is going to happen then vote for them.
Actually, that's been done already.
I'm completely for evidence-based policy. It's desperately needed in drugs law for instance. However I'd suggest putting too much faith into economists because they are perceived as "scientists" is risky, look at the damage done by Thatcher's slavish following of the Chicago School of Economics, monetarist policies decimated this country."
.
The saddest thing about Reaganomics is that it actually had been shown to be bullshit for years before it was sold to Reagan on the back of a napkin in a 5 minute breifing.... Sadly for us Thatcher and Reagan convinced both the UK and USA that this notion of the only people driving wealth are the rich and the richer you make them through tax cuts the more wealth they will create with it... It's still endemic in people today, not only has it been proven not to work but it's been proven it has the exact opposite effect because they can now take their money tax free or very minimal taxation it stifles investment in business and instead they plough it into financial schemes instead of what they would have done to avoid paying the tax decades ago and invest into companies, machinery, ideas, staff, premises.
.
The latest brain fart is that if we don't tax them they'll at least keep their existing business here paying tax.... Which completely undermines the whole purpose of free markets and capitalism ie when they leave somebody else will fill the gap.
All these brain farts of bullshit come from think tanks of corporatocracy , they just spew out endless bollocks that the wealthy have paid them to make sound feasible to voters |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Mark carney admits that brexit hasnt caused the end of the world after all.
Cue the "ah we havent left yet" brigade
Premature xx"
To a degree, as no deal has been struck.
The financial markets are simply factoring in that we will leave and have no more idea of the actual deal than anyone else. |
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By *ammskiMan
over a year ago
lytham st.annes |
"Mark carney admits that brexit hasnt caused the end of the world after all.
Cue the "ah we havent left yet" brigade
Premature xx
To a degree, as no deal has been struck.
The financial markets are simply factoring in that we will leave and have no more idea of the actual deal than anyone else."
Exactly,anyone else noticed CLCC haven't commented yet ? |
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"To all those defending him, should Carney be allowed to go on TV before the next general election and speak his mind and say that if you vote Labour/Conservative (take your pick) it will lead to economic disaster? I could not be bothered listening to people like him . Wrong too many times too often. In any event it is too difficult to predict the future . The FTSE 100 index is good enough for me as it builds in expectations of future prospects by people who are putting their money where their mouth is as opposed to some exotic dreamer who gets paid their salary and future pension regards of what they say.
.
70% of the revenues declared by FTSE 100 companies are derived from overseas and therefore negative pressure on the GBP will ppositively affect those Company earnings (and share price) without any increase in productivity.
The FTSE 100 is a fools barometer of the health of the UK economy.
"
However I do not see many people agreeing that the the FTSE 100 is a fools barometer of the health of the UK economy .
Based on the concept that the value of shares is based on the future earnings of companies and their potential , I fail to see any real significance of the impact of currency movements on the long term value of a company .
The accounts of any FTSE100 company will be crawled all over by brokers , journalists and investment fund managers looking for anomalies and in paricular ensuring that the reported earnings translate into a postive cash flow movement . Any one off currency gains or other one off transactions will be discounted when assessing long term performance .
I subscribe to two specialist publications on share investments and not many of them are advising to ignore the recnt good news because it is simply due to a favourable exchange rate .
These publications will analyse the historic performance and future prospects of any uk listed company ( including those quoted on AIM ) .
I am happy the accept the recnt sterling performance of the FTSE for what it is ( namely excellent news and an indication of confidence in the future of the UK by investors )
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"
However I do not see many people agreeing that the the FTSE 100 is a fools barometer of the health of the UK economy .
Based on the concept that the value of shares is based on the future earnings of companies and their potential , I fail to see any real significance of the impact of currency movements on the long term value of a company .
The accounts of any FTSE100 company will be crawled all over by brokers , journalists and investment fund managers looking for anomalies and in paricular ensuring that the reported earnings translate into a postive cash flow movement . Any one off currency gains or other one off transactions will be discounted when assessing long term performance .
I subscribe to two specialist publications on share investments and not many of them are advising to ignore the recnt good news because it is simply due to a favourable exchange rate .
These publications will analyse the historic performance and future prospects of any uk listed company ( including those quoted on AIM ) .
I am happy the accept the recnt sterling performance of the FTSE for what it is ( namely excellent news and an indication of confidence in the future of the UK by investors )
"
Share price movements are based on short term bets on quarterly earnings potential and pure speculation.
Long term investors don't effect the share price because they buy and hold their shares making their money from dividends based on underlying value. The share price is meaningless in this situation unless your taking a new long term strategic position.
What does the recent change in the value of our currency indicate to you?
What are these specialist publications by the way? |
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" However that is not going to happen. A currency should be allowed to float to market rates
Right...
So, so long as you don't get the hit all at once its OK for the UK's wealth to be drained away because that way you wont notice how you have been made poor by bad political choices.
Nothing like a bit of ignorance to control the prols, how do you like being described as an ignorant prol? I would find it insulting! But I would also find it much more worrying that anyone would see me in such a roll. Which do you find more concerning?"
Unless I have missed something , the UK economy appears to be in sound financial health at the moment and favourable exchange rates have made our exports more competitive . Many people will argue that the pound was historically over valued and has only fallen to a more realistic level .
I fail to understand how anyone can claim that the Uks wealth is being drained away .
No one should be worried about being described as being ignorant . Use of such terminolgy is a reflection on the sender who describes someone as being ignorant , not the recipient of the term .
In any event , we are simply in cyberland . However I prefer to adopt the same set of manners on the internet as those that I operate in real life , and as such would never resort to descibing someone as being ignorant . |
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